New Delhi: The fast-paced recovery seen in the domestic air passenger traffic is expected to continue in the second half of the current financial year, ratings agency Icra has said. Icra estimates domestic air passenger traffic for September to be around 12.3 million. While this is 1.3% lower than August, it is nearly 19% higher than the year-ago period and around 7% more than the pre-covid level of September 2019. For April-September, domestic air traffic was 7% more than the corresponding period of 2019 and 20% higher than the year-ago period. Indian civil aviation regulator Directorate General of Civil Aviation is yet to publish official monthly figures for air traffic but the civil aviation ministry also publishes daily air traffic updates for the domestic aviation market. “Icra’s outlook on the Indian aviation industry is stable on the back of the fast-paced recovery in domestic passenger traffic in FY2023 and H1 FY2024 and expectations of the trend continuing in H2 FY2024. Moreover, the industry witnessed improved pricing power, reflected in the improved yields and thus the revenue per available seat kilometre – cost per available seat kilometre (RASK-CASK) spread of the airlines," the rating agency said. Despite a healthy recovery in air passenger traffic, Icra has reiterated that the domestic aviation industry continues to face challenges on account of elevated prices of aviation turbine fuel and depreciation of the Indian rupee vs US dollar compared to the pre-Covid levels, both of which have a major bearing on the airlines’ cost structure. It is important to note that fuel cost accounts for approximately 30-40% of the airlines’ expenses, while nearly 45-60% of the airlines’ operating expenses including aircraft lease payments, fuel expenses and a significant portion of aircraft and engine maintenance expenses are denominated in US dollar terms. The average price of jet fuel stood at 121,013 per kl in 2022-2023 and at 101,833 per kl so far in the current financial year compared with an average of 65,368 per kl in 2019-2020. Jet fuel prices in Delhi rose for a fourth consecutive month to reach 118,199.17 per kilolitre (kl) on 1 October, a 32% spike since June. In fact, Indian airlines have started imposing fuel surcharge on airfares to compensate for the rise in fuel prices. The largest carrier IndiGo with 63% market share has announced a 300-1,000 fuel surcharge and fellow low-cost carrier SpiceJet has also confirmed that it will also impose a component of fuel surcharge. “While domestic airlines have a partial natural hedge to the extent of earnings from their international operations, overall, their net payables are in foreign currency. The airlines’ efforts to ensure fare hikes, proportionate to their input cost increases, will be the key to expand their profitability margins," Icra added. Icra maintained that it estimates the Indian airlines to reduce their losses to 30-50 billion in 2023-2024 (April-March) on back of steady growth in passenger traffic, pricing discipline and consolidation in the industry. As per Icra, the industry is estimated to have reported a net loss of nearly 170-175 billion in 2022-2023 and a net loss of nearly 217 billion in 2021-2022. "Exciting news! Mint is now on WhatsApp Channels Subscribe today by clicking the link and stay updated with the latest financial insights!"