The quarter's performance marks a sharp deterioration from the previous quarter, when the company posted consolidated profits of ₹6.90 crores. Despite a modest year-on-year improvement of 37.36% in consolidated profits, the sequential collapse raises serious questions about business sustainability and earnings quality. The company's proprietary Mojo Score stands at a dismal 26 out of 100, firmly in "Strong Sell" territory, reflecting multiple red flags across valuation, quality, and momentum parameters.
With the stock trading 46.66% below its 52-week high of ₹34.57 and institutional holdings barely registering at 0.29%, Almondz Global faces a crisis of confidence. The technical trend remains bearish, whilst the financial trend has turned negative, creating a perfect storm for existing shareholders.
| Quarter | Net Sales (₹ Cr) | QoQ Growth | YoY Growth | Consol. PAT (₹ Cr) | QoQ Growth | Operating Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep'25 | 33.73 | +6.64% | -0.82% | 3.64 | -47.25% | 15.24% |
| Jun'25 | 31.63 | -40.04% | +6.68% | 6.90 | +12.20% | 17.93% |
| Mar'25 | 52.75 | +58.74% | +16.16% | 6.15 | +153.09% | 9.65% |
| Dec'24 | 33.23 | -2.29% | — | 2.43 | -8.30% | 11.98% |
| Sep'24 | 34.01 | +14.70% | — | 2.65 | -56.49% | 11.35% |
| Jun'24 | 29.65 | -34.71% | — | 6.09 | +1.50% | 12.48% |
| Mar'24 | 45.41 | — | — | 6.00 | — | 10.04% |
Financial Performance: Margin Compression Amid Flat Revenue
Almondz Global's Q2 FY26 results paint a troubling picture of a business struggling to maintain momentum. Net sales of ₹33.73 crores represented a marginal 6.64% quarter-on-quarter increase but declined 0.82% year-on-year, signalling stagnation in a capital markets environment that has seen robust activity. The revenue performance falls 11.0% below the previous four-quarter average, indicating deteriorating business traction.
The profit picture deteriorated sharply. Consolidated net profit of ₹3.64 crores plunged 47.25% sequentially from ₹6.90 crores in Q1 FY26, despite a 37.36% year-on-year improvement from the low base of ₹2.65 crores in Q2 FY25. On a standalone basis, net profit stood at ₹2.35 crores, down from ₹2.56 crores in the previous quarter. The profit before tax (excluding other income) declined 15.9% below the previous four-quarter average, reaching ₹4.15 crores.
Operating margins contracted significantly, with the operating profit margin (excluding other income) falling to 15.24% from 17.93% in the previous quarter—a compression of 269 basis points. The gross profit margin similarly declined to 12.75% from 16.19% quarter-on-quarter. PAT margin collapsed to 11.47% from 21.81% in Q1 FY26, reflecting both operational pressures and the absence of extraordinary gains.
Employee costs remained elevated at ₹9.77 crores, up from ₹9.09 crores sequentially, consuming 29.0% of revenues. Other income declined sharply to ₹0.27 crores from ₹0.65 crores in the previous quarter, removing a critical profit cushion. Interest costs moderated slightly to ₹1.11 crores from ₹1.20 crores, whilst depreciation remained stable at ₹1.40 crores.
Operational Challenges: Weak ROE and Earnings Volatility
The company's operational metrics reveal fundamental weaknesses that extend beyond quarterly fluctuations. Almondz Global's return on equity stands at a lacklustre 7.17%, significantly below industry standards and reflecting inefficient capital deployment. The average ROE over recent years of 8.72% places the company in the "below average" quality category, indicating persistent challenges in generating adequate returns for shareholders.
Return on capital employed (ROCE) of 4.61% further underscores the poor utilisation of deployed capital. For a financial services firm operating in the capital markets space, these profitability metrics are particularly concerning, as they suggest structural challenges in the business model or execution gaps in a sector that typically commands higher returns.
The balance sheet shows shareholder funds of ₹241.40 crores as of March 2025, up from ₹219.97 crores in the previous year. Investments stood at ₹137.71 crores, whilst current assets totalled ₹179.23 crores. The company maintains a low leverage profile with negligible long-term debt, which provides some financial flexibility but also raises questions about the ability to scale operations profitably.
Cash flow dynamics reveal operational stress. For FY25, the company reported negative operating cash flow of ₹9.00 crores, a sharp reversal from positive ₹35.00 crores in FY24. This deterioration stemmed from adverse working capital movements of ₹20.00 crores, suggesting challenges in managing receivables or inventory in the broking and advisory business. The company relied on financing cash flow of ₹32.00 crores to maintain liquidity, raising concerns about the sustainability of operations without external funding.
Critical Concerns: Profitability and Cash Generation
Weak Capital Efficiency: ROE of 7.17% and ROCE of 4.61% indicate poor returns on deployed capital, falling well below acceptable thresholds for financial services firms.
Operating Cash Flow Collapse: FY25 operating cash flow turned negative at ₹9.00 crores versus positive ₹35.00 crores in FY24, signalling deteriorating cash generation ability.
Earnings Volatility: Quarterly profit swings from ₹6.90 crores to ₹3.64 crores demonstrate lack of earnings stability and predictability.
Industry Context: Underperformance in Favourable Market
The capital markets sector has witnessed robust activity over the past year, with the broader sector delivering 19.32% returns. However, Almondz Global has dramatically underperformed, declining 38.53% over the same period—an underperformance of 57.85 percentage points versus its sector. This stark divergence suggests company-specific challenges rather than sector headwinds.
The company's micro-cap status (₹306.00 crore market capitalisation) limits institutional participation and liquidity. With institutional holdings at a mere 0.29%—comprising only foreign institutional investors with no mutual fund, insurance, or domestic institutional participation—the stock lacks the support base typically needed for sustained value creation. The absence of mutual fund interest is particularly telling, as it suggests professional fund managers have found limited merit in the investment case.
Almondz Global operates in a competitive landscape dominated by larger, better-capitalised peers with established client franchises and diversified revenue streams. The company's focus on equity broking, wealth management, debt portfolio management, and advisory services exposes it to market volatility and regulatory changes, whilst its limited scale constrains its ability to invest in technology and talent necessary to compete effectively.
| Company | Market Cap (₹ Cr) | P/E (TTM) | P/BV | ROE (%) | Div Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almondz Global | 306.00 | 17.24 | 1.29 | 8.72 | — |
| Emkay Global Fin. | — | 33.87 | 0.25 | 11.00 | 1.35 |
| Gretex Corporate | — | NA (Loss Making) | 3.26 | 23.90 | 0.16 |
| Shardul Securities | — | NA (Loss Making) | 0.57 | 8.63 | — |
| Quest Capital | — | 17.01 | 0.26 | 2.42 | 0.74 |
| Pune e Stock | — | 21.94 | 2.56 | 10.55 | — |
Relative to peers, Almondz Global's ROE of 8.72% lags the peer average, whilst its P/E ratio of 17.24x appears reasonable on a relative basis. However, the modest valuation multiple reflects market scepticism about earnings quality and growth prospects. The price-to-book ratio of 1.29x suggests limited premium to book value, consistent with the weak return profile.
Valuation Analysis: Fair Price Masks Fundamental Concerns
At the current price of ₹18.44, Almondz Global trades at a P/E ratio of 17.24x trailing twelve-month earnings and 1.29x book value. The company's valuation grade stands at "Fair," having oscillated between "Fair" and "Attractive" over recent months. Whilst the multiples appear reasonable in isolation, they mask deteriorating fundamentals and negative momentum.
The EV/EBITDA multiple of 18.23x and EV/EBIT of 24.32x suggest the market is pricing in limited growth expectations. The EV/Sales ratio of 2.24x appears elevated given the stagnant revenue trajectory and margin pressures. With no dividend yield (last dividend of ₹0.42 per share paid in September 2011), shareholders derive no income support whilst enduring capital depreciation.
The stock's 52-week range of ₹16.68 to ₹34.57 illustrates the dramatic value destruction over the past year. Currently trading just 10.55% above the 52-week low and 46.66% below the high, the technical picture reinforces fundamental concerns. The absence of institutional buying interest and persistent selling pressure have created a negative feedback loop.
Shareholding: Institutional Exodus Continues
The shareholding pattern reveals a concerning trend of institutional disinvestment. Promoter holding has remained relatively stable at 51.18% as of September 2025, up marginally from 51.01% in the previous quarter. However, the key concern lies in the collapse of foreign institutional investor (FII) participation, which has plummeted from 2.38% in September 2024 to just 0.29% in September 2025.
The sequential decline in FII holdings—from 2.13% in December 2024 to 1.27% in March 2025, 0.59% in June 2025, and finally 0.29% in September 2025—represents a systematic exit by sophisticated investors. This sustained selling pressure reflects institutional scepticism about the company's prospects and concerns about governance, strategy, or execution.
Mutual funds, insurance companies, and other domestic institutional investors maintain zero exposure to the stock, a damning indictment of the investment case. Non-institutional holdings have increased marginally to 48.53%, largely representing retail investors who may lack the resources for thorough due diligence. The promoter group, led by Avonmore Capital & Management Services Ltd. with 50.34% stake, has maintained its commitment, though the absence of meaningful stake increases raises questions about confidence in the turnaround potential.
| Category | Sep'25 | Jun'25 | Mar'25 | Dec'24 | QoQ Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Promoter | 51.18% | 51.01% | 51.29% | 50.77% | +0.17% |
| FII | 0.29% | 0.59% | 1.27% | 2.13% | -0.30% |
| Mutual Funds | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Insurance | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Non-Institutional | 48.53% | 48.40% | 47.44% | 47.10% | +0.13% |
Stock Performance: Severe Underperformance Across Timeframes
Almondz Global's stock performance has been abysmal across most relevant timeframes. Over the past year, the stock has plunged 38.53% whilst the Sensex gained 5.50%, resulting in negative alpha of 44.03 percentage points. Year-to-date performance stands at a catastrophic -44.79% against the Sensex's +7.34%, underperforming by 52.13 percentage points.
Recent momentum provides little solace. The one-month return of 6.04% and one-week gain of 2.33% represent minor technical bounces within a broader downtrend. The three-month decline of 9.52% and six-month fall of 8.53% confirm the negative trajectory. The stock trades below all key moving averages—5-day (₹18.15), 20-day (₹17.59), 50-day (₹18.75), 100-day (₹20.17), and 200-day (₹21.83)—a classic bearish technical configuration.
The risk-adjusted return profile is alarming. With volatility of 51.67% and negative risk-adjusted returns of -0.75, the stock falls into the "high risk, low return" category—the worst possible quadrant for investors. The beta of 1.50 indicates the stock is 50% more volatile than the market, amplifying downside risk during market corrections.
Longer-term performance presents a mixed picture. The five-year return of 833.95% and ten-year gain of 1,052.50% reflect the stock's journey from extremely depressed levels, but these historical returns provide little guidance for current investors facing deteriorating fundamentals and negative momentum.
| Period | Stock Return | Sensex Return | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week | +2.33% | +0.49% | +1.84% |
| 1 Month | +6.04% | +1.66% | +4.38% |
| 3 Months | -9.52% | +4.05% | -13.57% |
| 6 Months | -8.53% | +5.56% | -14.09% |
| YTD | -44.79% | +7.34% | -52.13% |
| 1 Year | -38.53% | +5.50% | -44.03% |
| 2 Years | +40.81% | +29.22% | +11.59% |
| 3 Years | +45.61% | +35.73% | +9.88% |
Investment Thesis: Multiple Red Flags Warrant Caution
The investment case for Almondz Global is severely compromised by a confluence of negative factors. The company's Mojo Score of 26 out of 100 places it firmly in "Strong Sell" territory, with deterioration across all key parameters. The quality grade remains "Below Average," reflecting weak return on equity and inconsistent financial performance over the long term.
The financial trend has turned decisively negative, with the latest quarterly results showing declines in net sales, profit before tax (excluding other income), and net profit versus the previous four-quarter averages. The technical trend remains bearish, with the stock trading below all major moving averages and multiple technical indicators flashing sell signals. The valuation, whilst appearing "Fair" on traditional metrics, fails to compensate for the deteriorating fundamentals and negative momentum.
"With negative operating cash flow, collapsing margins, institutional exodus, and a Mojo Score of just 26, Almondz Global presents a textbook case of value destruction rather than value creation."
Key Strengths & Risk Factors
KEY STRENGTHS
- Low Leverage: Negligible long-term debt provides financial flexibility and reduces solvency risk in challenging operating environment.
- Stable Promoter Holding: Promoter stake of 51.18% demonstrates continued commitment, though absence of stake increases raises questions.
- Long-Term Growth Track Record: Five-year sales CAGR of 22.13% and EBIT growth of 54.80% show historical ability to scale operations.
- Diversified Service Offering: Presence across equity broking, wealth management, debt portfolio management, and advisory provides multiple revenue streams.
- Reasonable Valuation Multiples: P/E of 17.24x below industry average of 24x offers some margin of safety if fundamentals stabilise.
KEY CONCERNS
- Profit Collapse: Consolidated PAT plunged 47.25% QoQ to ₹3.64 crores, indicating severe operational stress and earnings instability.
- Revenue Stagnation: YoY revenue decline of 0.82% and 11.0% below four-quarter average signals loss of business momentum.
- Weak Return Metrics: ROE of 7.17% and ROCE of 4.61% reflect inefficient capital deployment and poor profitability.
- Operating Cash Flow Crisis: FY25 operating cash flow turned negative at ₹9.00 crores versus positive ₹35.00 crores in FY24.
- Institutional Exodus: FII holdings collapsed from 2.38% to 0.29% over past year; zero mutual fund or insurance participation.
- Margin Compression: Operating margin fell 269 bps QoQ to 15.24%; PAT margin collapsed 1,034 bps to 11.47%.
- Technical Breakdown: Stock trades below all moving averages in confirmed bearish trend with high volatility of 51.67%.
Outlook: What to Watch
POSITIVE CATALYSTS
- Stabilisation of quarterly revenue above ₹35 crores with consistent QoQ growth
- Operating margin recovery above 17% sustained over multiple quarters
- Return to positive operating cash flow and improvement in working capital management
- Institutional buying interest resumption with FII holdings crossing 1% threshold
- ROE improvement above 10% demonstrating enhanced capital efficiency
RED FLAGS
- Further sequential profit decline in Q3 FY26 results
- Revenue falling below ₹30 crores in any quarter
- Operating margins slipping below 12% indicating structural profitability issues
- Additional institutional selling with FII holdings falling below 0.20%
- Breach of ₹16.68 support level (52-week low) on sustained basis
The company faces a critical juncture. Management must demonstrate credible plans to arrest the profit decline, stabilise margins, and restore revenue growth. Without visible improvement in Q3 FY26 results and concrete evidence of operational turnaround, the negative momentum is likely to persist. The absence of institutional support and weak technical structure suggest limited near-term catalysts for re-rating.
The Verdict: Exit Opportunity for Existing Holders
Score: 26/100
For Fresh Investors: Avoid initiating positions. The combination of deteriorating fundamentals, negative financial trend, weak return metrics, institutional exodus, and bearish technical setup creates an unfavourable risk-reward profile. Wait for concrete evidence of operational turnaround, sustained margin recovery, and institutional re-engagement before considering entry.
For Existing Holders: Consider exiting positions on any technical bounce towards ₹19-20 levels. The 47.25% sequential profit decline, negative operating cash flow, collapsing margins, and institutional selling represent serious red flags. With the Mojo Score at just 26 and multiple parameters flashing warning signals, preservation of capital takes precedence over hope for recovery.
Fair Value Estimate: ₹14.50-15.50 (21.2% downside from current levels), reflecting weak return profile, earnings volatility, and negative momentum. Current "Fair" valuation grade does not adequately capture deteriorating fundamentals and execution risks.
Note— ROCE = (EBIT - Other income)/(Capital Employed - Cash - Current Investments)
⚠️ Investment Disclaimer
This article is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence, consider their risk tolerance and investment objectives, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments in securities are subject to market risks, and there is no assurance of returns or capital preservation.
