The December 2025 quarter marked a significant inflection point for the Delhi-based financial services firm, with net sales jumping 54.02% quarter-on-quarter to ₹51.95 crores and operating profit margin expanding to a record 21.46%. The company's profit after tax margin reached 24.58%, reflecting improved operational efficiency and favourable revenue mix. Despite these impressive quarterly numbers, the stock has underperformed the Capital Markets sector by 71.95 percentage points over the past year, suggesting deeper concerns about business sustainability and competitive positioning.
Financial Performance: Exceptional Quarter Raises Sustainability Questions
In Q3 FY26, Almondz Global Securities reported net sales of ₹51.95 crores, representing a robust 56.33% year-on-year growth and a sequential jump of 54.02% from Q2 FY26's ₹33.73 crores. This marked the company's strongest quarterly revenue performance in recent history, surpassing even the March 2025 quarter's ₹52.75 crores. The sequential acceleration is particularly noteworthy, as it reversed the modest 6.64% quarter-on-quarter growth seen in the previous period.
Operating profit before depreciation, interest, tax, and other income (PBDIT) reached ₹11.15 crores in Q3 FY26, more than doubling from ₹5.14 crores in Q2 FY26. The operating margin expansion to 21.46% from 15.24% in the previous quarter represents a significant improvement in operational efficiency. This margin level substantially exceeds the company's historical average and suggests either a favourable shift in business mix towards higher-margin activities or improved cost management.
| Quarter | Net Sales (₹ Cr) | QoQ Growth | Net Profit (₹ Cr) | YoY Growth | PAT Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec'25 | 51.95 | +54.02% | 12.37 | +409.05% | 24.58% |
| Sep'25 | 33.73 | +6.64% | 3.64 | +37.36% | 11.47% |
| Jun'25 | 31.63 | -40.04% | 6.90 | +13.30% | 21.81% |
| Mar'25 | 52.75 | +58.74% | 6.15 | — | 11.66% |
| Dec'24 | 33.23 | -2.29% | 2.43 | — | 7.31% |
| Sep'24 | 34.01 | +14.70% | 2.65 | — | 7.79% |
| Jun'24 | 29.65 | — | 6.09 | — | 20.54% |
The consolidated net profit of ₹12.37 crores in Q3 FY26 represents a dramatic 239.84% sequential increase from Q2 FY26's ₹3.64 crores and a staggering 409.05% year-on-year jump from ₹2.43 crores in Q3 FY25. The profit after tax margin of 24.58% is the highest in recent quarters, significantly exceeding the company's typical range of 7-12%. However, this volatility in margins and profitability raises questions about the sustainability of such performance, particularly given the company's history of fluctuating quarterly results.
Employee costs in Q3 FY26 stood at ₹10.41 crores, up 6.55% from ₹9.77 crores in the previous quarter, whilst interest costs declined marginally to ₹1.04 crores from ₹1.11 crores. The relatively modest increase in employee costs despite the substantial revenue growth suggests improved productivity and operating leverage. Depreciation remained stable at ₹1.52 crores, indicating no significant capital expenditure during the quarter.
Operational Challenges: Weak ROE Signals Structural Concerns
Whilst the quarterly results appear impressive on the surface, a deeper examination of Almondz Global's operational metrics reveals significant structural weaknesses. The company's average return on equity (ROE) of 8.63% over the past five years falls well below industry standards for capital markets firms, indicating inefficient capital deployment and weak profitability relative to shareholder equity. The latest ROE of 7.43% is even lower, suggesting deteriorating capital efficiency despite the strong quarterly performance.
The company's return on capital employed (ROCE) of 4.99% is particularly concerning, as it indicates that the business generates less than 5% returns on the total capital deployed. For a capital markets firm operating in a relatively asset-light business model, such low returns suggest either intense competitive pressures, inefficient operations, or a business model that struggles to generate sustainable profitability. This metric is especially troubling when compared to peers who typically generate double-digit returns on capital employed.
Critical Concern: Capital Efficiency
Almondz Global's ROE of 7.43% and ROCE of 4.99% rank amongst the weakest in the capital markets sector. These metrics suggest the company struggles to generate adequate returns on shareholder capital and deployed resources, raising serious questions about long-term value creation potential. The company's quality grade of "Below Average" reflects these fundamental weaknesses in financial performance over the long term.
On the balance sheet front, Almondz Global maintains a relatively conservative financial structure with zero long-term debt as of March 2025. Shareholder funds stood at ₹241.40 crores, up from ₹219.97 crores in the previous year, reflecting retained earnings and a modest equity issuance. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.20 (considering short-term borrowings) is manageable, though the net debt-to-equity ratio suggests the company maintains some borrowings to fund working capital requirements.
The company's investment portfolio has grown to ₹137.71 crores as of March 2025 from ₹119.57 crores in the previous year, representing a 15.17% increase. Current assets of ₹179.23 crores provide adequate liquidity coverage against current liabilities of ₹118.92 crores, yielding a current ratio of approximately 1.51. However, cash and cash equivalents at ₹9.61 crores on a half-yearly basis represent the lowest level in recent periods, potentially constraining operational flexibility.
Capital Markets Sector: Navigating Volatility and Competition
The capital markets sector in India has witnessed significant volatility over the past year, with regulatory changes, market corrections, and evolving investor preferences reshaping the competitive landscape. Almondz Global operates in a highly fragmented industry dominated by larger, well-capitalised players with established brand recognition and extensive distribution networks. The company's micro-cap status and limited institutional following (just 0.06% institutional holdings) place it at a competitive disadvantage in attracting quality clients and talent.
The sector's overall performance has been strong, with the Capital Markets index delivering 26.99% returns over the past year, making Almondz Global's 44.96% decline particularly stark. This massive underperformance of 71.95 percentage points suggests company-specific challenges rather than sector-wide headwinds. The disconnect between the company's improving quarterly results and deteriorating stock price indicates that investors remain unconvinced about the sustainability of recent performance improvements.
Market Context: Sector Outperformance Highlights Company Weakness
Whilst the broader Capital Markets sector has delivered robust returns of 26.99% over the past year, Almondz Global has declined 44.96%, resulting in a massive 71.95 percentage point underperformance. This divergence suggests investors view the company's recent quarterly strength as an aberration rather than a sustainable trend, particularly given the company's weak long-term fundamentals and below-average quality grade.
Almondz Global's business model encompasses equity and debt capital markets advisory, private equity, infrastructure advisory, equity broking, wealth management, and debt portfolio management services. This diversified service offering should theoretically provide revenue stability, yet the company's quarterly results demonstrate significant volatility. The dramatic swings in profitability suggest either lumpy deal flow in advisory services or inconsistent execution across business lines.
Peer Comparison: Valuation Discount Reflects Quality Concerns
When compared to peers in the capital markets space, Almondz Global trades at what appears to be an attractive valuation on traditional metrics, but this discount largely reflects the company's inferior quality and growth profile. The company's price-to-earnings ratio of 13.92x compares favourably to the industry average of 23x and peers like Emk Global Financial Services (36.56x) and Pune e Stock Broking (23.76x). However, this valuation gap is justified by the company's substantially weaker return on equity and inconsistent profitability.
| Company | P/E (TTM) | P/BV | ROE (%) | Debt/Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almondz Global | 13.92 | 1.03 | 8.63 | 0.20 |
| Emk Global Financial | 36.56 | 2.19 | 12.34 | 0.27 |
| Shriram AMC | NA (Loss Making) | 3.39 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Pune e Stock Broking | 23.76 | 2.78 | 10.55 | 0.00 |
| Shardul Securities | NA (Loss Making) | 0.36 | 8.63 | 0.25 |
| Quest Capital | 13.60 | 0.21 | 1.88 | 0.00 |
Almondz Global's price-to-book value ratio of 1.03x is significantly lower than peers like Emk Global (2.19x), Pune e (2.78x), and even Shriram AMC (3.39x), despite Shriram being loss-making. This suggests the market assigns minimal premium to the company's book value, reflecting scepticism about the quality of assets and future earnings potential. The company's ROE of 8.63% places it in the middle of the peer group, though still well below the 12.34% achieved by Emk Global Financial Services.
With a market capitalisation of just ₹264.00 crores, Almondz Global ranks sixth amongst its peer group, highlighting its limited scale and market presence. The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.20 is comparable to peers, indicating that leverage is not a differentiating factor. The absence of dividend yield data suggests the company has not established a consistent dividend policy, further limiting its appeal to income-focused investors.
Valuation Analysis: Attractive Entry Point or Value Trap?
At the current market price of ₹15.33, Almondz Global trades at a trailing twelve-month P/E ratio of 13.92x, representing a 39.5% discount to the capital markets industry average of 23x. The company's price-to-book value of 1.03x implies the market values the business at barely above its net asset value, suggesting minimal confidence in the company's ability to generate superior returns on equity. This valuation appears attractive on the surface but requires careful consideration of the underlying quality and sustainability of earnings.
The company's enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of 15.45x and EV-to-EBIT of 20.64x are elevated relative to the low P/E ratio, indicating that the company's debt-adjusted valuation is less compelling than the equity multiple suggests. The EV-to-sales ratio of 2.03x appears reasonable for a capital markets firm, though it reflects the sector's generally asset-light nature rather than any company-specific premium.
The stock's valuation grade has fluctuated between "Fair" and "Attractive" over recent months, most recently assessed as "Fair" since October 2025. This suggests that even at current depressed price levels, the market does not view the stock as compellingly cheap, likely due to concerns about earnings quality and sustainability. The company's 52-week high of ₹31.40 implies the stock has fallen 51.18% from its peak, whilst trading 18.56% above its 52-week low of ₹12.93.
Based on the company's trailing earnings and assuming normalised profitability closer to the ₹8.00 crores annual PAT reported in FY25 (rather than the exceptional Q3 FY26 quarter), a fair value estimate of approximately ₹18-20 per share appears reasonable, implying 17-30% upside from current levels. However, this assumes the company can maintain FY25 profitability levels, which remains uncertain given the volatility in quarterly results and weak underlying return metrics.
Shareholding Pattern: Promoter Stability Amidst FII Exit
Almondz Global's shareholding pattern reveals a stable promoter base but declining institutional interest, which raises concerns about the investment community's confidence in the company's prospects. Promoter holding has remained steady at 51.18% in both December 2025 and September 2025, following a marginal increase from 51.01% in June 2025. This stable promoter stake provides some comfort regarding management commitment, though the relatively modest 51.18% holding leaves room for potential dilution or changes in control.
| Quarter | Promoter % | FII % | MF % | Non-Institutional % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec'25 | 51.18% | 0.06% (▼0.23%) | 0.00% | 48.76% (▲0.23%) |
| Sep'25 | 51.18% | 0.29% (▼0.30%) | 0.00% | 48.53% (▲0.13%) |
| Jun'25 | 51.01% | 0.59% (▼0.68%) | 0.00% | 48.40% (▲0.96%) |
| Mar'25 | 51.29% | 1.27% (▼0.86%) | 0.00% | 47.44% (▲0.34%) |
| Dec'24 | 50.77% | 2.13% | 0.00% | 47.10% |
The most concerning trend in the shareholding pattern is the consistent decline in foreign institutional investor (FII) holdings, which have plummeted from 2.13% in December 2024 to just 0.06% in December 2025. This represents a near-complete exit by foreign investors over the past year, with sequential declines in every quarter. The December 2025 quarter alone saw a 0.23 percentage point reduction in FII holding, continuing the trend of institutional divestment despite the company's strong quarterly results.
Mutual fund holdings remain at zero across all periods, indicating no interest from domestic institutional investors. Similarly, insurance company holdings and other domestic institutional investor (DII) holdings are absent, leaving the stock entirely dependent on retail and high-net-worth individual investors. This lack of institutional participation severely limits the stock's liquidity and makes it vulnerable to sharp price movements on relatively low volumes.
Non-institutional holdings have increased marginally from 47.10% in December 2024 to 48.76% in December 2025, absorbing the shares sold by FIIs. However, this shift from institutional to retail ownership is generally viewed negatively, as it suggests sophisticated investors are exiting whilst less-informed retail participants are accumulating. The promoter group is led by Avonmore Capital & Management Services Ltd. with a 50.34% stake, with no pledging of shares reported.
Stock Performance: Severe Underperformance Despite Long-Term Gains
Almondz Global's stock price performance presents a tale of two timelines: exceptional long-term returns overshadowed by severe recent underperformance. At ₹15.33, the stock has declined 44.96% over the past year, underperforming the Sensex by a massive 55.37 percentage points. This dramatic underperformance has accelerated in recent months, with the stock down 17.36% over three months and 24.78% over six months, even as the broader market has delivered positive returns.
| Period | Stock Return | Sensex Return | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Week | +4.50% | +0.50% | +4.00% |
| 1 Month | -12.55% | +0.79% | -13.34% |
| 3 Months | -17.36% | +0.43% | -17.79% |
| 6 Months | -24.78% | +4.50% | -29.28% |
| YTD | -13.59% | -1.16% | -12.43% |
| 1 Year | -44.96% | +10.41% | -55.37% |
| 3 Years | +38.06% | +38.81% | -0.75% |
| 5 Years | +348.77% | +63.46% | +285.31% |
The stock's technical position remains decidedly bearish, with the current trend classified as "Bearish" since changing from "Mildly Bearish" on January 14, 2026. The stock trades below all key moving averages—5-day (₹14.85), 20-day (₹15.20), 50-day (₹16.28), 100-day (₹17.13), and 200-day (₹19.23)—indicating persistent selling pressure across all timeframes. Multiple technical indicators including MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, and KST all flash bearish signals on both weekly and monthly charts.
The stock's beta of 1.38 indicates high volatility relative to the broader market, with 38% higher price swings than the Sensex. This elevated volatility, combined with negative returns, places the stock in the "High Risk Low Return" category—the worst possible quadrant for investors. The risk-adjusted return of -0.76 over the past year compares unfavourably to the Sensex's positive 0.90, highlighting that investors have been penalised rather than rewarded for taking on additional risk.
On a longer-term basis, the stock has delivered exceptional returns of 348.77% over five years and a remarkable 903.27% over ten years, massively outperforming the Sensex's 63.46% and 267.00% returns over the same periods. However, these historical gains provide little comfort to recent investors who have suffered steep losses. The divergence between long-term outperformance and recent underperformance suggests the stock may have been overvalued at previous peaks or that the business fundamentals have deteriorated significantly.
Investment Thesis: Attractive Valuation Cannot Overcome Structural Weaknesses
Almondz Global Securities presents a complex investment case where superficially attractive valuation metrics clash with concerning fundamental weaknesses and deteriorating market sentiment. The company's Mojo Score of 34 out of 100 places it firmly in "SELL" territory, reflecting the analysis that structural challenges outweigh any near-term positives from the strong Q3 FY26 results.
The investment thesis faces a fundamental challenge: whilst the company trades at attractive valuation multiples (P/E of 13.92x and P/BV of 1.03x), these metrics reflect justified concerns about earnings quality and sustainability. The exceptional Q3 FY26 results—with net profit surging 409.05% year-on-year—appear to be an outlier rather than the beginning of a sustained improvement trend. The company's history of volatile quarterly performance, combined with weak return on equity (8.63%) and return on capital employed (4.99%), suggests structural challenges in generating consistent, high-quality earnings.
The complete absence of institutional investor interest—zero mutual fund holdings, near-zero FII holdings (0.06%), and no insurance or DII participation—sends a powerful signal about professional investors' assessment of the company's prospects. The steady exit of foreign institutional investors over the past year, even as the company reported improving results, suggests that sophisticated market participants view the recent performance as unsustainable or question the quality of reported earnings.
Key Strengths & Risk Factors
KEY STRENGTHS
- Exceptional Q3 FY26 Performance: Net profit of ₹12.37 crores represents 409.05% YoY growth with record operating margins of 21.46%
- Attractive Valuation Multiples: P/E of 13.92x trades at 39.5% discount to industry average, P/BV of 1.03x near book value
- Conservative Balance Sheet: Zero long-term debt, debt-to-equity of 0.20, adequate current ratio of 1.51
- Diversified Service Offerings: Multiple revenue streams across capital markets, advisory, broking, and wealth management
- Strong Long-Term Returns: Five-year returns of 348.77% and ten-year returns of 903.27% demonstrate historical value creation
- Stable Promoter Holding: 51.18% promoter stake with no pledging provides management stability
- Positive Financial Trend: Recent quarterly trend classified as "Positive" with multiple metrics at record highs
KEY CONCERNS
- Weak Capital Efficiency: ROE of 7.43% and ROCE of 4.99% rank amongst the weakest in the sector, indicating poor returns on deployed capital
- Severe Stock Underperformance: Down 44.96% over past year, underperforming sector by 71.95 percentage points despite strong quarterly results
- Complete Institutional Exit: FII holdings collapsed from 2.13% to 0.06%, zero MF/insurance/DII holdings signal lack of confidence
- Volatile Earnings Pattern: Dramatic quarterly swings in profitability (PAT margins ranging from 7% to 25%) raise sustainability concerns
- Below Average Quality Grade: Long-term financial performance assessment places company in "Below Average" category
- Bearish Technical Setup: Stock below all moving averages, multiple indicators bearish, high beta of 1.38 amplifies downside risk
- Micro-Cap Constraints: ₹264 crore market cap limits liquidity, institutional participation, and competitive positioning
Outlook: What to Watch
POSITIVE CATALYSTS
- Sustained quarterly profitability above ₹8-10 crores demonstrating Q3 FY26 was not an aberration
- Operating margins stabilising above 15% across multiple consecutive quarters
- Return on equity improving towards 12-15% range through better capital deployment
- Institutional investor participation returning with MF or FII stake building
- Stock establishing support above ₹15 and reclaiming 50-day moving average at ₹16.28
RED FLAGS
- Q4 FY26 results reverting to historical ₹2-4 crore quarterly profit range
- Operating margins contracting back below 12-13% levels
- Further decline in FII holdings or promoter stake reduction
- Stock breaking below 52-week low of ₹12.93 on high volumes
- Deterioration in cash position or increase in debt levels
The path forward for Almondz Global Securities hinges critically on demonstrating that the Q3 FY26 performance represents a sustainable shift in business quality rather than a one-time aberration. Investors should closely monitor the Q4 FY26 and subsequent quarterly results to assess whether the company can maintain operating margins above 15% and quarterly profits above ₹8-10 crores. Any reversion to the historical pattern of ₹2-4 crore quarterly profits would confirm market scepticism and likely trigger further selling pressure.
The technical setup remains precarious, with the stock trading below all key moving averages and multiple indicators in bearish territory. A decisive break below the 52-week low of ₹12.93 could trigger further downside towards ₹10-11 levels, whilst a sustained move above the 50-day moving average at ₹16.28 would be required to signal any meaningful technical recovery. Given the high beta of 1.38 and elevated volatility, risk management through position sizing is crucial for any investor considering exposure to this stock.
The Verdict: Avoid Despite Valuation Appeal
Score: 34/100
For Fresh Investors: Avoid initiating positions despite the attractive valuation multiples. The combination of weak capital efficiency metrics (ROE of 7.43%, ROCE of 4.99%), complete absence of institutional support, and severe stock price underperformance (down 44.96% over one year) outweighs any near-term positives from the strong Q3 FY26 results. The company's "Below Average" quality grade and history of volatile earnings suggest the recent exceptional quarter is likely an aberration rather than the start of a sustainable turnaround.
For Existing Holders: Consider using any rally towards ₹17-18 levels to exit positions and reallocate capital to higher-quality businesses with more consistent earnings profiles. The stock's bearish technical setup, sustained institutional selling, and structural challenges in generating adequate returns on capital suggest limited upside potential. Only those with very high risk tolerance and long investment horizons should consider holding, whilst closely monitoring Q4 FY26 results for signs of earnings sustainability.
Fair Value Estimate: ₹18-20 (17-30% upside), but this assumes the company can sustain FY25 profitability levels of ₹8 crores annually, which remains highly uncertain given the volatile quarterly performance and weak underlying return metrics.
Note- ROCE= (EBIT - Other income)/(Capital Employed - Cash - Current Investments)
⚠️ Investment Disclaimer
This article is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence, consider their risk tolerance and investment objectives, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
