The quarter's performance represents a significant deterioration from the preceding period, with consolidated net profit plunging 88.46% sequentially from ₹1,765.71 crores in Q2 FY26. This sharp contraction underscores mounting operational challenges in an industry facing subdued demand, intense pricing pressures, and rising input costs. With a market capitalisation of ₹131,340 crores, Ambuja Cements now trades at 22.97 times trailing twelve-month earnings, a discount to the industry average of 37 times, reflecting investor concerns about near-term profitability headwinds.
The third quarter results paint a picture of a company struggling to maintain profitability amid a challenging operating environment. Whilst revenue expanded 9.19% year-on-year to ₹10,276.65 crores and grew 12.01% sequentially, this top-line growth failed to translate into bottom-line performance. The company's operating profit before depreciation, interest, tax, and other income (PBDIT excluding OI) contracted to ₹1,353.07 crores in Q3 FY26, marking the lowest level in recent quarters and representing a margin of just 13.17% compared to 18.19% in the year-ago period.
Financial Performance: Margin Erosion Devastates Profitability
The most striking aspect of Ambuja Cements' Q3 FY26 performance was the severe compression across all profitability metrics. Operating margin (excluding other income) plummeted to 13.17% from 18.19% year-on-year and 19.19% in the previous quarter, representing a deterioration of over 500 basis points annually. This margin pressure cascaded through the income statement, with profit after tax margin collapsing to 3.57% from 28.30% in the corresponding quarter last year.
The company's gross profit margin stood at 13.30% in Q3 FY26, down sharply from 31.85% in Q3 FY25, indicating significant pricing pressures and rising input costs. Employee costs remained relatively stable at ₹383.88 crores, though they represented 3.74% of sales compared to 4.06% in the year-ago period. However, the real damage came from a substantial increase in depreciation charges to ₹959.03 crores in Q3 FY26, up 58.08% year-on-year from ₹606.68 crores, reflecting the impact of recent capacity expansions and asset additions.
On a standalone basis, the company reported net profit of ₹361.84 crores in Q3 FY26, which whilst substantially higher than the consolidated figure, still represented a significant decline from operational levels in previous quarters. The divergence between standalone and consolidated profits suggests challenges at subsidiary level operations. Interest costs remained manageable at ₹58.85 crores, down from ₹66.99 crores year-on-year, reflecting the company's conservative debt profile with a debt-to-EBITDA ratio averaging just 0.12 times.
| Metric | Dec'25 | Sep'25 | Jun'25 | Mar'25 | Dec'24 | Sep'24 | Jun'24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales (₹ Cr) | 10,276.65 | 9,174.49 | 10,289.07 | 9,980.55 | 9,411.35 | 7,552.45 | 8,392.09 |
| QoQ Growth | +12.01% | -10.83% | +3.09% | +6.05% | +24.61% | -10.01% | — |
| YoY Growth | +9.19% | +21.48% | +22.60% | — | — | — | — |
| Cons. Net Profit (₹ Cr) | 203.70 | 1,765.71 | 835.19 | 956.27 | 2,158.21 | 479.53 | 639.86 |
| Operating Margin (Excl OI) | 13.17% | 19.19% | 19.06% | 18.87% | 18.19% | 14.72% | 15.43% |
| PAT Margin | 3.57% | 25.09% | 9.88% | 12.96% | 28.30% | 6.57% | 9.44% |
A particularly unusual feature of Q3 FY26 was the exceptional tax situation. The company reported a negative tax charge of ₹1,464.75 crores in Q2 FY26 (resulting in a tax rate of -174.89%), which significantly boosted that quarter's reported profit. In contrast, Q3 FY26 saw a normalised tax rate of 11.02%, though this was substantially lower than the 27.95% rate in Q4 FY25. For the full year FY25, the company reported a tax rate of 12.90%, indicating potential ongoing tax optimisation strategies or deferred tax adjustments.
Operational Challenges: Demand Weakness and Cost Pressures Converge
The cement industry faced a perfect storm in Q3 FY26, with subdued construction activity, seasonal monsoon impacts lingering into October, and intense competitive pressures weighing on realisations. Ambuja Cements' operating profit before other income fell to its lowest quarterly level at ₹1,353.07 crores, down from ₹1,711.85 crores in the year-ago period. This decline occurred despite revenue growth, indicating that volume gains came at the expense of pricing power and margins.
The company's return on equity (ROE) stood at 10.26% for the latest period, marginally above the five-year average of 9.30% but well below industry leaders. More concerning is the return on capital employed (ROCE), which registered just 7.30% in the latest period compared to a five-year average of 14.97%. This deterioration in capital efficiency metrics reflects both the margin pressures and the substantial capital investments undertaken as part of the Adani Group's expansion strategy following its acquisition of majority control in 2022.
Critical Performance Indicators
Weakening Capital Efficiency: ROCE declined to 7.30% from a five-year average of 14.97%, indicating that recent capacity expansions have yet to generate adequate returns. The sharp increase in depreciation to ₹959.03 crores (up 58.08% YoY) reflects the cost of this expansion, whilst operating margins have contracted to multi-quarter lows. This combination of elevated capital intensity and compressed margins raises questions about the timing and pricing of new capacity additions in a demand-constrained environment.
Cash Flow Pressures: Operating cash flow generation has weakened significantly, with cash from operations declining to ₹2,237 crores in FY25 from ₹5,645 crores in FY24, whilst investing activities consumed ₹7,528 crores. The company's cash and cash equivalents position has shown stress, dropping to the lowest levels in recent periods at ₹458.50 crores on a half-yearly basis.
Other income, which had been a significant contributor in previous quarters (reaching ₹1,352.24 crores in Q3 FY25), normalised to ₹87.32 crores in Q3 FY26. This dramatic decline of 93.54% year-on-year suggests that the previous year's figure likely included exceptional items or one-time gains. The normalisation of other income further exacerbated the profit decline, as the operational business was unable to compensate for this reduction.
On the balance sheet front, Ambuja Cements maintains a robust financial position with shareholder funds of ₹53,443.25 crores as of March 2025, up from ₹41,451.68 crores a year earlier. Long-term debt remains minimal at ₹14.39 crores, resulting in a negligible net debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01. Fixed assets increased substantially to ₹41,112.99 crores from ₹31,436 crores, reflecting the ongoing capacity expansion programme. However, current assets declined to ₹19,710.38 crores from ₹23,966.23 crores, indicating tighter working capital management or reduced liquidity buffers.
Industry Context: Cement Sector Faces Structural Headwinds
The cement industry's challenges in Q3 FY26 were not unique to Ambuja Cements. The sector has grappled with oversupply conditions following aggressive capacity additions by major players, whilst demand growth has remained tepid due to slower-than-expected infrastructure project execution and a subdued real estate market. Government infrastructure spending, a key demand driver, has faced execution delays, whilst private construction activity remains below pre-pandemic levels in many regions.
Pricing power has eroded significantly, with cement companies unable to pass through cost increases to customers in a fiercely competitive market. Input costs, particularly for coal and petroleum coke used in kilns, have remained elevated despite some moderation from peak levels. Power and freight costs have also contributed to margin pressures, whilst the industry's high fixed-cost structure means that any volume shortfall or pricing weakness disproportionately impacts profitability.
Sector Dynamics: Capacity Overhang
India's cement industry has witnessed substantial capacity additions over the past two years, with the Adani Group alone committing to significant expansion across its cement portfolio including Ambuja Cements and ACC. Whilst long-term demand fundamentals remain positive given India's urbanisation and infrastructure needs, the near-term supply-demand imbalance has created a buyers' market. Utilisation rates across the industry have declined, forcing companies to compete aggressively on price to maintain volumes. This dynamic is unlikely to reverse until demand growth accelerates or weaker players rationalise capacity, neither of which appears imminent in the next two to three quarters.
Ambuja Cements' stock performance reflects these industry-wide concerns. Over the past year, the stock has delivered a marginal 0.15% return, significantly underperforming the Sensex's 7.18% gain and the broader Cement & Cement Products sector's 7.20% return. The underperformance has been particularly pronounced over shorter timeframes, with the stock declining 10.21% over three months and 17.48% over six months, compared to declines of 2.53% and gains of 0.97% respectively for the Sensex over the same periods.
Peer Comparison: Valuation Discount Reflects Profitability Concerns
Relative to its peer group, Ambuja Cements trades at a notable valuation discount, which appears justified given its weaker profitability metrics. The company's price-to-earnings ratio of 22.97 times compares favourably to the sector average of approximately 44 times and leaders like Shree Cement (56.92x) and UltraTech Cement (48.25x). However, this discount reflects investor concerns about near-term earnings quality and growth prospects rather than representing a compelling value opportunity.
| Company | P/E (TTM) | P/BV | ROE (%) | Div Yield (%) | Debt/Equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ambuja Cements | 22.97 | 2.36 | 9.30 | 0.37 | 0.01 |
| UltraTech Cement | 48.25 | 5.20 | 11.44 | 0.61 | 0.30 |
| Shree Cement | 56.92 | 4.36 | 10.04 | 0.70 | -0.24 |
| Grasim Industries | 44.10 | 1.93 | 7.11 | 0.35 | 1.81 |
| J K Cements | 40.51 | 6.57 | 14.29 | 0.27 | 0.79 |
| Dalmia Bharat | 32.20 | 2.18 | 6.63 | 0.44 | 0.12 |
Ambuja Cements' return on equity of 9.30% lags most peers except Grasim Industries (7.11%) and Dalmia Bharat (6.63%), whilst its price-to-book ratio of 2.36 times is the second-lowest in the peer group. This suggests the market is pricing in continued pressure on profitability and returns. The company's minimal leverage (debt-to-equity of 0.01) is a positive differentiator, providing financial flexibility, but this advantage is offset by weaker operational performance.
J K Cements stands out with the highest ROE of 14.29% and a premium price-to-book multiple of 6.57 times, indicating superior capital efficiency. UltraTech Cement, the industry leader, commands a P/E multiple of 48.25 times despite a more leveraged balance sheet, reflecting its market dominance, operational scale, and consistent execution. Ambuja Cements' inability to command similar multiples underscores investor scepticism about its competitive positioning and near-term margin recovery prospects.
Valuation Analysis: Expensive Despite Discount to Peers
Despite trading at a discount to sector peers, Ambuja Cements' valuation remains in "Expensive" territory according to proprietary assessment metrics. The stock's enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of 18.26 times and EV-to-EBIT of 31.99 times appear elevated given the current margin profile and return metrics. The company's PEG ratio of 0.23 might suggest value, but this metric is distorted by volatile earnings growth patterns and should be interpreted cautiously.
The stock currently trades at ₹510.20, down 18.37% from its 52-week high of ₹625 but up 12.13% from its 52-week low of ₹455. This positioning in the lower half of the annual range reflects deteriorating fundamentals rather than presenting a compelling entry point. The stock trades below all key moving averages—5-day (₹533.16), 20-day (₹546.55), 50-day (₹545.36), 100-day (₹556.75), and 200-day (₹563.72)—indicating sustained downward momentum and lack of technical support.
The company's dividend yield of 0.37% (₹2 per share) is among the lowest in the peer group, offering minimal income support to investors. With a dividend payout ratio of just 11.82%, there is theoretically scope to increase distributions, but management may prefer to conserve cash given the ongoing capital expenditure requirements and near-term profitability challenges. The low payout also reflects the company's focus on funding growth rather than returning cash to shareholders.
Shareholding Pattern: Stable Promoter Base, Declining Foreign Interest
Ambuja Cements' shareholding structure has remained relatively stable over recent quarters, with promoter holding steady at 67.68% as of December 2025. The Adani Group, through entities including Holderind Investments Ltd. (47.97%) and Harmonia Trade And Investment Ltd. (19.33%), maintains firm control over the company. This concentrated promoter holding provides strategic stability but limits free float liquidity for investors.
| Category | Dec'25 | Sep'25 | Jun'25 | Mar'25 | QoQ Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Promoter | 67.68% | 67.68% | 67.57% | 67.57% | 0.00% |
| FII | 5.80% | 5.91% | 7.44% | 8.60% | -0.11% |
| Mutual Funds | 8.15% | 8.03% | 7.91% | 7.81% | +0.12% |
| Insurance | 8.97% | 9.02% | 8.39% | 7.09% | -0.05% |
| Other DII | 2.73% | 2.58% | 2.41% | 2.40% | +0.15% |
| Non-Institutional | 6.67% | 6.78% | 6.29% | 6.52% | -0.11% |
A concerning trend has been the steady decline in foreign institutional investor (FII) holdings, which have dropped from 9.14% in December 2024 to 5.80% in December 2025. This represents a cumulative reduction of 330 basis points over the year, with FII holdings declining in each of the past four quarters. The most recent quarter saw FII stake fall by 11 basis points sequentially and 153 basis points in the September quarter, indicating sustained selling pressure from overseas investors who appear to be losing confidence in the near-term outlook.
Offsetting this to some extent has been a gradual increase in domestic institutional holdings. Mutual fund ownership has risen from 7.71% in December 2024 to 8.15% currently, with incremental additions in each quarter. Insurance company holdings have also increased substantially from 6.68% to 8.97% over the same period, suggesting domestic institutions see long-term value despite near-term challenges. Other domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have also increased their stake from 2.24% to 2.73%. However, the pace of domestic accumulation has not fully compensated for foreign selling, contributing to stock price weakness.
Stock Performance: Sustained Underperformance Across Timeframes
Ambuja Cements' stock performance has been disappointing across virtually all relevant timeframes, with the company significantly underperforming both the broader Sensex and its sector peers. The stock's one-year return of 0.15% compares unfavourably to the Sensex's 7.18% gain, resulting in negative alpha of 7.03 percentage points. The underperformance is even more pronounced relative to the Cement & Cement Products sector, which delivered 7.20% returns over the same period.
| Period | Stock Return | Sensex Return | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | -4.81% | -0.36% | -4.45% |
| 1 Week | -1.67% | +0.90% | -2.57% |
| 1 Month | -7.19% | -2.84% | -4.35% |
| 3 Months | -10.21% | -2.53% | -7.68% |
| 6 Months | -17.48% | +0.97% | -18.45% |
| YTD | -8.29% | -3.46% | -4.83% |
| 1 Year | +0.15% | +7.18% | -7.03% |
| 2 Years | -10.57% | +15.65% | -26.22% |
| 3 Years | +31.68% | +38.27% | -6.59% |
| 5 Years | +109.66% | +77.74% | +31.92% |
The deterioration has accelerated in recent months, with the stock declining 10.21% over three months and 17.48% over six months. The six-month underperformance of 18.45 percentage points relative to the Sensex is particularly stark, coinciding with the period when margin pressures intensified and earnings quality deteriorated. Year-to-date in 2026, the stock is down 8.29% compared to the Sensex's 3.46% decline, indicating continued weakness.
From a longer-term perspective, the picture is mixed. Over five years, Ambuja Cements has delivered strong returns of 109.66%, outperforming the Sensex by 31.92 percentage points. However, this performance largely reflects gains accumulated in earlier years, with momentum reversing sharply over the past two years. The two-year return of -10.57% compared to the Sensex's +15.65% gain (negative alpha of 26.22 percentage points) suggests a fundamental shift in the company's investment case that has yet to be addressed.
Technical indicators paint a uniformly bearish picture. The stock entered a bearish trend on January 20, 2026, at ₹535.50, transitioning from a mildly bearish phase. Key technical indicators including MACD, Bollinger Bands, KST, and Dow Theory all signal bearish conditions on both weekly and monthly timeframes. The stock trades below all major moving averages, with immediate resistance at the 20-day moving average of ₹546.55 and strong resistance at the 200-day moving average of ₹563.72. Support lies at the 52-week low of ₹455, which if breached could trigger further selling pressure.
Investment Thesis: Quality Concerns Outweigh Balance Sheet Strength
Ambuja Cements' investment thesis has weakened considerably following the Q3 FY26 results. The company's overall quality grade has been assessed as "Average," downgraded from "Good" prior to May 2024, reflecting the deterioration in financial performance and return metrics. Whilst the company maintains certain strengths—including a debt-free balance sheet, no promoter pledging, and reasonable institutional holdings of 25.65%—these positives are overshadowed by more significant concerns.
The company's five-year sales growth of 9.90% is respectable, but five-year EBIT growth of just 3.02% indicates that revenue expansion has not translated into proportionate profit growth. This divergence highlights persistent margin pressures and rising costs that have eroded profitability over time. The average ROCE of 14.97% over five years, whilst positive, has declined to just 7.30% in the latest period, well below the cost of capital and indicating value destruction from recent investments.
The financial trend turned negative in Q3 FY26, with multiple red flags including the lowest operating profit to net sales ratio (13.17%), lowest PBDIT excluding other income (₹1,353.07 crores), lowest profit before tax less other income (₹340.32 crores), and lowest earnings per share (₹0.82) in recent quarters. Cash and cash equivalents on a half-yearly basis also hit the lowest levels at ₹458.50 crores, indicating potential liquidity stress despite the overall strong balance sheet.
The technical trend is unambiguously bearish, with the stock in a confirmed downtrend and trading below all key moving averages. The combination of negative financial trends, bearish technicals, expensive valuation, and average quality creates a challenging investment proposition. The company's proprietary Mojo score of 23 out of 100 places it firmly in "Strong Sell" territory, reflecting the confluence of negative factors across multiple dimensions.
Key Strengths & Risk Factors
✅ Key Strengths
⚠️ Key Concerns
Outlook: What to Watch in Coming Quarters
Positive Catalysts
Red Flags
The coming quarters will be critical for Ambuja Cements as the company navigates a challenging operating environment. Investors should closely monitor quarterly margin trends, capacity utilisation rates, volume growth relative to industry, and any signs of pricing power returning to the sector. Management commentary on demand outlook, cost management initiatives, and the timeline for achieving targeted returns on recent investments will be particularly important. The stock's technical trend and institutional shareholding patterns will also provide valuable signals about changing investor sentiment.
The Verdict: Avoid Until Margin Stability Returns
Score: 23/100
For Fresh Investors: Avoid initiating positions in Ambuja Cements at current levels. The combination of deteriorating margins (13.17% operating margin, lowest in recent quarters), collapsing profitability (90.56% YoY decline in net profit), weak return metrics (ROCE of 7.30% vs 14.97% average), and bearish technical trends creates an unfavourable risk-reward profile. Whilst the debt-free balance sheet provides downside protection, the lack of visible near-term catalysts for margin recovery and the industry's structural oversupply situation suggest patience is warranted. Wait for clear evidence of margin stabilisation, improved capacity utilisation, and positive inflection in quarterly trends before considering entry.
For Existing Holders: Consider reducing exposure or exiting positions, particularly if holding at cost basis above ₹550. The Q3 FY26 results represent a significant deterioration from already weak Q2 performance, indicating that operational challenges are intensifying rather than improving. The 90% profit decline, margin compression to multi-quarter lows, and negative financial trend classification suggest the worst may not be over. Whilst long-term fundamentals around India's cement demand remain intact, the medium-term outlook (next 2-3 quarters) appears challenging. The stock's bearish technical trend, sustained foreign investor selling, and expensive valuation despite peer discount provide limited support for holding through this difficult period.
Fair Value Estimate: ₹425-450 (17% downside from current levels), based on normalised earnings power of ₹15-16 per share and a justified P/E multiple of 18-20 times given current quality metrics and return profile. The stock would need to demonstrate at least two consecutive quarters of margin improvement and stabilising profitability before warranting a higher valuation.
Note: ROCE = (EBIT - Other Income) / (Capital Employed - Cash - Current Investments)
⚠️ Investment Disclaimer
This article is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence, consider their risk tolerance and investment objectives, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are based on information available as of the publication date and are subject to change.
