The results paint a grim picture of a company grappling with structural challenges in India's rapidly evolving media landscape. The 26.41% year-on-year revenue decline accelerated from previous quarters, whilst the company's operating profit before depreciation, interest, and tax (excluding other income) plummeted 77.97% sequentially to ₹31.86 crores—the lowest in at least seven quarters. This deterioration comes despite relatively stable employee costs of ₹40.38 crores, suggesting the revenue collapse is driven by subscriber attrition and pricing pressures rather than operational inefficiency.
The company's negative book value of ₹17.66 per share reflects accumulated losses of ₹3,437.72 crores against share capital of just ₹192.38 crores, leaving shareholder funds at negative ₹3,242.95 crores as of March 2025. This precarious financial position, combined with the accelerating operational decline, has prompted a "Strong Sell" rating from our proprietary Mojo Score system, which assigns the company just 1 out of 100 points.
Financial Performance: A Downward Spiral Intensifies
Dish TV India's Q2 FY26 financial performance reveals a company in severe distress, with every key metric deteriorating both sequentially and on a year-on-year basis. Net sales of ₹291.13 crores represent an 11.61% quarter-on-quarter decline and a staggering 26.41% year-on-year contraction, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of declining revenues. The company's revenue has now fallen from ₹455.29 crores in Q2 FY25 to ₹291.13 crores in Q2 FY26, a decline of more than ₹164 crores in just one year.
| Quarter | Net Sales (₹ Cr) | QoQ Change | Operating Margin | Net Profit (₹ Cr) | PAT Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep'25 | 291.13 | -11.61% | 10.94% | -132.65 | -45.56% |
| Jun'25 | 329.36 | -4.16% | 22.12% | -94.53 | -28.70% |
| Mar'25 | 343.66 | -7.87% | 28.32% | -402.19 | -117.03% |
| Dec'24 | 373.03 | -5.71% | 32.90% | -46.54 | -12.48% |
| Sep'24 | 395.62 | -13.11% | 36.54% | -37.38 | -9.45% |
| Jun'24 | 455.29 | +11.88% | 36.12% | -1.56 | -0.34% |
| Mar'24 | 406.95 | — | 40.62% | -1,989.69 | -488.93% |
The margin compression tells an equally troubling story. Operating profit margin (excluding other income) collapsed from 22.12% in Q1 FY26 to just 10.94% in Q2 FY26, a decline of 1,118 basis points in a single quarter. This represents the lowest operating margin recorded in the available data, down from a relatively healthy 40.62% in March 2024. The PAT margin deteriorated to negative 45.56% from negative 28.70% in the previous quarter, indicating that the company is burning through cash at an accelerating rate.
Operating profit before depreciation, interest, and tax (excluding other income) stood at merely ₹31.86 crores in Q2 FY26, down from ₹72.84 crores in Q1 FY26 and ₹144.57 crores in Q2 FY25—a year-on-year decline of 77.97%. This precipitous fall in operating profitability, combined with a heavy interest burden of ₹69.01 crores and depreciation charges of ₹103.66 crores, resulted in a loss before tax of ₹132.65 crores. With no tax benefit recorded, this flowed directly through to the bottom line as a net loss of ₹132.65 crores.
Critical Operational Breakdown
Operating Profit to Interest Coverage: At just 0.46 times in Q2 FY26, Dish TV India is generating barely half the operating profit needed to service its interest obligations. This represents the lowest coverage ratio in recent history and raises serious questions about the company's ability to sustain its current debt structure.
Cash Flow Concerns: Whilst the company generated positive operating cash flow of ₹409 crores for FY25, the accelerating operational decline suggests this may not be sustainable in FY26.
The Subscriber Exodus: Structural Challenges in DTH
The dramatic revenue decline at Dish TV India is symptomatic of broader structural challenges facing the direct-to-home (DTH) industry in India. The company's subscriber base, whilst still substantial at over 29 million, has been steadily eroding as consumers migrate to digital streaming platforms and fibre-based broadband services offering integrated entertainment solutions. The 26.41% year-on-year revenue decline in Q2 FY26 suggests not merely subscriber attrition but also pricing pressure, as the company struggles to maintain average revenue per user (ARPU) in an increasingly competitive environment.
The company's balance sheet reveals the extent of accumulated distress. Shareholder funds stood at negative ₹3,242.95 crores as of March 2025, with reserves and surplus at negative ₹3,437.72 crores against share capital of ₹192.38 crores. This means that even if the company were to liquidate all its assets—fixed assets of ₹1,040.02 crores and current assets of ₹674.76 crores—it would still be unable to satisfy its current liabilities of ₹5,525.85 crores, which include trade payables of ₹414.35 crores and other current liabilities of ₹414.93 crores.
The company's return on equity (ROE) of 20.27% might appear attractive at first glance, but this metric is misleading given the negative book value. In reality, the company is destroying shareholder value at an alarming rate, with accumulated losses mounting quarter after quarter. The average ROCE of 11.27% similarly masks the underlying deterioration, as recent quarters have shown negative returns on capital employed.
Balance Sheet Stress Indicators
Current Ratio: Current assets of ₹674.76 crores against current liabilities of ₹5,525.85 crores yield a current ratio of just 0.12, indicating severe short-term liquidity constraints.
Working Capital: The company's working capital deficit of approximately ₹4,851 crores suggests it is heavily reliant on creditor funding to maintain operations.
Fixed Asset Turnover: With net sales of ₹1,567 crores in FY25 against fixed assets of ₹1,040 crores, the asset turnover ratio of 1.51 times indicates underutilised infrastructure capacity.
Peer Comparison: Lagging Across All Metrics
A comparison with peers in the media and entertainment sector reveals Dish TV India's relative underperformance across virtually all financial and valuation metrics. Whilst the company's ROE of 20.27% appears superior to most peers, this is a function of the negative book value rather than genuine profitability. The company's price-to-book value of negative 0.25 times reflects the market's recognition that shareholder equity has been entirely eroded.
| Company | P/E (TTM) | ROE (%) | Debt/Equity | P/BV | Div Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dish TV India | NA (Loss Making) | 20.27% | 0.05 | -0.25 | NA |
| NDTV | NA (Loss Making) | 22.56% | 5.58 | 16.66 | NA |
| Sandesh | 18.06 | 9.98% | -0.63 | 0.64 | 0.42% |
| Bright Outdoor | 46.09 | 8.02% | -0.13 | 5.37 | 0.12% |
| T.V. Today Network | 28.35 | 10.31% | -0.09 | 0.94 | 2.15% |
| OnMobile Global | 49.28 | 2.94% | -0.08 | 1.03 | NA |
The comparison underscores Dish TV India's unique position as a loss-making entity with a negative book value, distinguishing it unfavourably from most peers who maintain positive equity bases. Whilst the company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.05 appears low, this is primarily because the equity base itself is negative. In absolute terms, the company carries significant liabilities relative to its asset base, creating substantial financial risk.
The company's market capitalisation of ₹816 crores ranks it fifth among the peer group, but this valuation appears generous given the deteriorating fundamentals. With an EV-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.99 times and EV-to-sales of 0.48 times, the market is pricing in significant distress, yet even these multiples may not fully capture the extent of the operational challenges.
Valuation Analysis: A Value Trap, Not a Bargain
At first glance, Dish TV India's valuation metrics might suggest an attractive entry point. Trading at ₹4.37 per share with a price-to-book value of negative 0.25 times and an EV-to-sales ratio of just 0.48 times, the stock appears deeply discounted. However, these metrics are misleading in the context of a company with negative shareholder equity and accelerating operational decline. The stock is classified as "Risky" by our valuation grade system, having been downgraded from "Very Attractive" in May 2023 as the financial deterioration became apparent.
The company's share price has declined 59.12% over the past year, underperforming the Sensex by 68.60 percentage points. Over three years, the stock has fallen 73.27% whilst the Sensex has gained 37.31%, resulting in a negative alpha of 110.58 percentage points. The stock is currently trading just 0.92% above its 52-week low of ₹4.33 and 65.01% below its 52-week high of ₹12.49, indicating persistent selling pressure.
| Valuation Metric | Current Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | NA (Loss Making) | Not applicable due to losses |
| Price to Book Value | -0.25x | Negative book value |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.99x | Low but reflects distress |
| EV/Sales | 0.48x | Deeply discounted |
| Market Cap | ₹816 Cr | Micro-cap with high risk |
The technical picture reinforces the bearish fundamental outlook. The stock is in a confirmed bearish trend since October 8, 2025, trading below all key moving averages—5-day (₹4.44), 20-day (₹4.44), 50-day (₹4.89), 100-day (₹5.11), and 200-day (₹5.62). The MACD indicator shows mildly bullish signals on the weekly chart but remains bearish on the monthly timeframe, whilst Bollinger Bands indicate bearish momentum across both timeframes. With a beta of 1.50, the stock exhibits 50% higher volatility than the broader market, amplifying downside risk in a declining trend.
"Dish TV India represents a classic value trap—apparent cheapness masking fundamental deterioration that shows no signs of stabilisation."
Shareholding Pattern: Institutional Exodus Continues
The shareholding pattern reveals a steady erosion of institutional confidence in Dish TV India. Promoter holding has remained largely stable at 11.64% as of September 2025, but this reflects the presence of distressed promoters unable to inject fresh capital rather than conviction in the business. Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) holding has declined from 10.54% in March 2025 to 9.69% in September 2025, a reduction of 85 basis points over two quarters, suggesting ongoing divestment by international investors.
| Shareholder Category | Sep'25 | Jun'25 | Mar'25 | QoQ Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Promoter | 11.64% | 11.64% | 11.68% | 0.00% |
| FII | 9.69% | 10.15% | 10.54% | -0.46% |
| Mutual Funds | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Insurance | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Other DII | 4.01% | 4.01% | 4.03% | 0.00% |
| Non-Institutional | 82.25% | 81.79% | 81.39% | +0.46% |
Most notably, mutual fund holdings have been completely eliminated, declining from 1.75% in September 2024 to 0.00% by June 2025, indicating a complete loss of confidence from domestic institutional investors. Insurance companies maintain no exposure to the stock, whilst other domestic institutional investors (DII) have kept their holdings stable at around 4.01%. The non-institutional category, comprising retail investors and high-net-worth individuals, has increased marginally to 82.25%, suggesting the stock has become predominantly a retail-held speculative play rather than an institutional investment.
The absence of meaningful institutional participation is particularly concerning. With just 13.69% institutional holding (FII and DII combined), the stock lacks the support base typically required for a turnaround. The 59 FIIs holding the stock represent fragmented, likely distressed positions rather than concentrated conviction bets. The promoter pledging data is not available, but the low promoter holding of 11.64% itself suggests limited skin in the game.
Stock Performance: Relentless Underperformance
Dish TV India's stock performance has been catastrophic across all timeframes, with the shares delivering negative returns and massive underperformance versus the Sensex. Over the past year, the stock has declined 59.12% whilst the Sensex has gained 9.48%, resulting in a negative alpha of 68.60 percentage points. The underperformance extends across all measured periods, from one month (negative 3.96% alpha) to ten years (negative 328.00% alpha), indicating persistent and accelerating value destruction.
| Period | Stock Return | Sensex Return | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | -1.13% | -0.33% | -0.80% |
| 1 Month | -3.10% | +0.86% | -3.96% |
| 3 Months | -15.15% | +4.18% | -19.33% |
| 6 Months | -17.23% | +2.85% | -20.08% |
| YTD | -57.78% | +8.36% | -66.14% |
| 1 Year | -59.12% | +9.48% | -68.60% |
| 2 Years | -77.40% | +28.69% | -106.09% |
| 3 Years | -73.27% | +37.31% | -110.58% |
| 5 Years | -57.49% | +91.65% | -149.14% |
| 10 Years | -95.72% | +232.28% | -328.00% |
The stock's risk-adjusted return of negative 1.51 over the past year, combined with volatility of 39.25% (more than three times the Sensex's 12.26%), places it firmly in the "high risk, low return" category. The Sharpe ratio is negative, indicating that investors would have been better off holding risk-free assets. With a beta of 1.50, the stock amplifies market movements by 50%, but this high beta has worked entirely against shareholders given the persistent downtrend.
Compared to its sector, Dish TV India has underperformed by 24.22 percentage points over the past year, with the stock declining 59.12% whilst the media and entertainment sector fell 34.90%. This sector-relative underperformance highlights company-specific issues beyond broader industry headwinds. The stock is currently trading at ₹4.37, just marginally above its 52-week low of ₹4.33, with no meaningful support visible until zero.
Investment Thesis: Multiple Red Flags, No Catalysts
The investment thesis for Dish TV India is overwhelmingly negative, with our proprietary Mojo Score assigning just 1 out of 100 points and a "Strong Sell" rating. The company exhibits weakness across all four key assessment parameters: valuation is classified as "Risky," quality grade is "Below Average," financial trend is "Negative," and technical trend is "Bearish." This rare confluence of negative factors across fundamental, financial, and technical dimensions makes the stock uninvestable at current levels.
Mojo 4 Dots Assessment
1. Near Term Drivers: NEGATIVE
Quarterly financial trend is negative, with accelerating revenue decline and margin compression. Technical indicators are bearish across all timeframes.
2. Quality: BELOW AVERAGE
Five-year sales growth of negative 17.12% and EBIT growth of negative 166.53% indicate fundamental business deterioration. Operating profit to interest coverage of just 0.46 times raises solvency concerns.
3. Valuation: RISKY
Whilst headline multiples appear low, the negative book value and loss-making status make traditional valuation metrics meaningless. The stock is a value trap, not a bargain.
4. Overall Assessment: CAUTIOUS
No positive catalysts visible. The company faces structural headwinds in the DTH industry with no clear path to profitability or balance sheet repair.
Key Strengths & Risk Factors
KEY STRENGTHS ✓
- Large Subscriber Base: Over 29 million subscribers provides scale, though declining
- Established Brand: Dish TV remains a recognised brand in Indian DTH market
- Low Debt Levels: Minimal long-term debt provides some financial flexibility
- Positive Operating Cash Flow: Generated ₹409 crores in FY25, though sustainability questionable
- Asset Base: Fixed assets of ₹1,040 crores provide some tangible backing
KEY CONCERNS ⚠
- Negative Shareholder Equity: Book value of negative ₹3,242.95 crores indicates complete erosion of capital
- Accelerating Revenue Decline: 26.41% YoY fall in Q2 FY26, worst in recent history
- Margin Collapse: Operating margin fell to 10.94%, down from 40%+ levels historically
- Persistent Losses: Seven consecutive quarters of losses with no turnaround visible
- Structural Industry Headwinds: DTH facing obsolescence from OTT and fibre broadband
- Weak Interest Coverage: Operating profit covers just 0.46 times interest expense
- Institutional Exodus: Zero mutual fund holding, declining FII participation
- Technical Breakdown: Below all moving averages, bearish trend confirmed
Outlook: What to Watch
POSITIVE CATALYSTS
- Strategic partnership or merger with larger media entity
- Successful pivot to digital streaming or content aggregation
- Debt restructuring or capital infusion from promoters
- Regulatory changes favouring DTH operators
- Stabilisation of subscriber base and ARPU
RED FLAGS
- Further sequential revenue decline below ₹290 crores
- Operating margin falling below 10%
- Inability to service interest obligations from operations
- Additional promoter stake reduction or pledging
- Breach of debt covenants or creditor actions
- Continued institutional selling pressure
Looking ahead, Dish TV India faces an uphill battle for survival. The company must stabilise its subscriber base, arrest the revenue decline, and restore operating margins to levels that can sustainably cover interest and depreciation charges. Without a strategic transaction or significant capital infusion, the path to positive shareholder equity appears virtually impossible. Investors should monitor Q3 FY26 results closely for any signs of stabilisation, though the structural headwinds facing the DTH industry suggest continued deterioration is more likely.
The Verdict: Exit Whilst Liquidity Permits
Score: 1/100
For Fresh Investors: Avoid entirely. The stock represents a value trap with negative book value, accelerating operational decline, and no visible catalysts for turnaround. The structural challenges facing the DTH industry make recovery highly improbable.
For Existing Holders: Exit positions immediately whilst market liquidity permits. The stock is trading near 52-week lows with persistent selling pressure. Further deterioration in Q3 FY26 could trigger additional downside. Any relief rallies should be used as exit opportunities.
Fair Value Estimate: Not applicable given negative book value and ongoing losses. The stock's intrinsic value is indeterminate, with significant risk of further value destruction.
Note- ROCE= (EBIT - Other income)/(Capital Employed - Cash - Current Investments)
⚠️ Investment Disclaimer
This article is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence, consider their risk tolerance and investment objectives, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
