The Mumbai-based financial services firm, promoted by Rajesh Kumar Sodhani who holds 54.96% stake, has exhibited alarming revenue volatility across recent quarters—swinging from ₹0.17 crores in Mar'24 to ₹0.96 crores in Jun'24, then crashing to ₹0.11 crores in Sep'24, before recovering to ₹0.87 crores in Jun'25 and now halving again to ₹0.43 crores in Sep'25. This erratic performance pattern raises serious questions about business sustainability and management's ability to generate consistent cash flows in an already challenging NBFC environment.
Despite the company maintaining a debt-free balance sheet and achieving a respectable average ROE of 18.19% over the longer term, the current quarter's ROE has deteriorated sharply to just 5.24%, signalling declining capital efficiency. With the stock rated "STRONG SELL" by proprietary analysis (score: 20/100) and classified as "Very Expensive" on valuation metrics, investors face a perfect storm of operational weakness, technical deterioration, and stretched multiples.
Financial Performance: Sharp Sequential Decline Masks Deeper Structural Issues
In Q2 FY26, Oasis Securities reported net sales of ₹0.43 crores, representing a precipitous 50.57% decline from ₹0.87 crores in Q1 FY26. On a year-on-year basis, revenue did show growth of 290.91% compared to ₹0.11 crores in Sep'24, but this comparison is misleading given the extremely low base effect from the previous year's dismal quarter. The company's inability to maintain sequential momentum exposes the fragility of its revenue generation model.
Net profit for Q2 FY26 stood at ₹0.24 crores, down 63.64% from ₹0.66 crores in Q1 FY26 and marginally lower by 7.69% year-on-year from ₹0.26 crores in Sep'24. The PAT margin compressed dramatically to 55.81% from 75.86% in the previous quarter, reflecting both revenue pressure and proportionally higher operating expenses. Operating profit margin (excluding other income) declined to 76.74% from 88.51% in Q1 FY26, indicating deteriorating operational efficiency despite the company's asset-light business model.
Employee costs remained relatively stable at ₹0.07 crores in Q2 FY26 versus ₹0.06 crores in Q1 FY26, but on a proportionate basis, this represents a significant drag given the halving of revenue. The tax rate in Q2 FY26 stood at 29.41%, more normalised compared to the 14.29% rate in Q1 FY26, which had benefited from certain adjustments. Looking at the half-yearly performance for H1 FY26, the company posted net profit of ₹0.90 crores on revenue of ₹1.30 crores, but the severe sequential deterioration in Q2 casts doubt on sustainability.
| Quarter | Revenue (₹ Cr) | QoQ Change | Net Profit (₹ Cr) | QoQ Change | PAT Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep'25 (Q2) | 0.43 | ▼ 50.57% | 0.24 | ▼ 63.64% | 55.81% |
| Jun'25 (Q1) | 0.87 | ▲ 625.00% | 0.66 | ▲ 300.00% | 75.86% |
| Mar'25 (Q4) | 0.12 | ▼ 70.73% | -0.33 | ▼ 294.12% | -275.00% |
| Dec'24 (Q3) | 0.41 | ▲ 272.73% | 0.17 | ▼ 34.62% | 41.46% |
| Sep'24 (Q2) | 0.11 | ▼ 88.54% | 0.26 | ▼ 72.63% | 236.36% |
| Jun'24 (Q1) | 0.96 | ▲ 464.71% | 0.95 | ▲ 302.13% | 98.96% |
| Mar'24 (Q4) | 0.17 | — | -0.47 | — | -276.47% |
Critical Revenue Volatility Warning
Oasis Securities has demonstrated extreme revenue instability over the past seven quarters, with quarterly sales swinging wildly between ₹0.11 crores and ₹0.96 crores. This pattern of feast-or-famine performance suggests either a highly lumpy business model dependent on sporadic transactions or fundamental operational challenges in sustaining client relationships and deal flow. For a financial services company, such unpredictability is a major red flag that undermines investor confidence and makes financial forecasting virtually impossible.
Operational Challenges: Deteriorating Returns and Quality Concerns
The most alarming aspect of Oasis Securities' recent performance is the sharp deterioration in return on equity. Whilst the company achieved an average ROE of 18.19% over the longer term—a respectable figure for an NBFC—the latest ROE has plummeted to just 5.24%. This represents a dramatic decline in capital efficiency, suggesting that the company is generating significantly lower profits relative to shareholder equity. For context, an ROE below 10% is generally considered subpar for financial services companies, indicating that management is struggling to deploy capital productively.
The company's return on capital employed (ROCE) stands at 8.97%, which is modest at best and fails to inspire confidence in management's ability to generate adequate returns from the capital base. With zero debt on the balance sheet as of Mar'17 (the latest available annual data), the company does benefit from financial flexibility and absence of interest burden. However, this debt-free structure also raises questions about why management isn't leveraging the balance sheet to drive growth—a common strategy for NBFCs looking to scale operations.
Quality assessment metrics paint a concerning picture. Oasis Securities is currently graded "Below Average" for quality, reflecting weak long-term financial performance. The company's five-year sales growth stands at a deeply negative -35.75%, whilst five-year EBIT growth has contracted at -13.44% CAGR. These figures indicate sustained business decline over the medium term, contradicting any narrative of recovery or turnaround. Institutional holdings stand at zero, highlighting the complete absence of professional investor interest—a damning indictment of the company's investment appeal.
Balance Sheet Snapshot: Minimal Scale, Shrinking Reserves
As of Mar'17, Oasis Securities reported shareholder funds of ₹14.94 crores, comprising share capital of ₹1.85 crores and reserves of ₹13.09 crores. Fixed assets stood at ₹2.87 crores, whilst investments totalled a negligible ₹0.04 crores. Current assets were minimal at ₹0.37 crores. Notably, reserves have been declining from ₹13.26 crores in Mar'15 to ₹13.09 crores in Mar'17, indicating erosion of accumulated profits. The book value per share stands at ₹7.15, yet the stock trades at ₹12.00, implying a price-to-book ratio of 1.68x—expensive for a company with deteriorating fundamentals.
Peer Comparison: Premium Valuation Without Justification
When benchmarked against peers in the NBFC micro-cap space, Oasis Securities appears significantly overvalued despite its operational challenges. The company trades at a P/E ratio of 31.98x, substantially higher than the industry average of 9x and peers such as Sulabh Engineers (9.43x) and Bazel International (10.17x). Whilst Oasis Securities does boast a superior ROE of 18.19% on average compared to peer group averages around 2-3%, this historical strength has not translated into recent performance, with the latest ROE at just 5.24%.
| Company | P/E Ratio | ROE (%) | Debt/Equity | Price/Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oasis Securities | 31.98 | 18.19 | 0.00 | 1.68 |
| Sulabh Engineers | 9.43 | 4.24 | 0.05 | 0.63 |
| Bazel International | 10.17 | 2.94 | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| Epuja Spiritech | NA (Loss Making) | 1.09 | 0.00 | 0.94 |
| MPIL Corporation | NA (Loss Making) | 0.00 | -0.27 | 1.80 |
The price-to-book ratio of 1.68x also appears elevated compared to peers like Sulabh Engineers (0.63x) and Bazel International (0.40x). Given the company's negative sales growth trajectory, erratic quarterly performance, and absence of institutional backing, the valuation premium appears entirely unjustified. Investors are essentially paying a significant multiple for a business that has consistently disappointed on growth metrics and demonstrated no clear path to sustainable profitability expansion.
Valuation Analysis: Expensive Multiples for a Deteriorating Business
Oasis Securities currently trades at a P/E ratio of 31.98x based on trailing twelve-month earnings, representing a substantial premium to both the industry average of 9x and the broader NBFC sector. This valuation appears divorced from fundamental reality, particularly given the company's flat financial trend (as assessed in Dec'25), deteriorating ROE, and negative five-year growth rates. The EV/EBITDA multiple stands at 19.30x, whilst EV/Sales is 11.82x—both metrics suggesting the market is pricing in growth and profitability that simply aren't materialising.
The stock's valuation grade has been classified as "Very Expensive" since July 2025, having oscillated between "Expensive" and "Very Expensive" throughout the past year. This persistent overvaluation, combined with deteriorating fundamentals, creates significant downside risk. With the stock currently trading at ₹12.00 against a book value of ₹7.15, the 1.68x price-to-book ratio implies investors are paying a 68% premium to net asset value for a company with shrinking reserves and declining profitability.
Based on peer group valuations and the company's operational trajectory, a fair value estimate would place the stock closer to ₹6.00-7.00, representing potential downside of 40-50% from current levels. This estimate assumes normalisation to peer-average P/BV multiples of 0.8-1.0x, which would still be generous given the quality concerns. The absence of dividend yield further reduces the total return proposition, leaving capital appreciation as the sole return driver—a problematic situation given the stock's 50.09% decline over the past year.
Shareholding Pattern: Stable Promoter Base, Zero Institutional Interest
The shareholding structure of Oasis Securities has remained remarkably stable over recent quarters, with promoter holding steady at 70.79% as of Dec'25. Promoter Rajesh Kumar Sodhani holds the dominant 54.96% stake, followed by Priya Sodhani with 15.19%. The promoters increased their stake marginally by 0.15% in Mar'25 (from 70.64% to 70.79%), and this level has been maintained subsequently. Importantly, there is no promoter pledging, which at least eliminates concerns about financial distress at the promoter level.
| Quarter | Promoter % | QoQ Change | FII % | MF % | Non-Institutional % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec'25 | 70.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 29.21 |
| Sep'25 | 70.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 29.21 |
| Jun'25 | 70.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 29.21 |
| Mar'25 | 70.79 | +0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 29.21 |
| Dec'24 | 70.64 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 29.36 |
However, the complete absence of institutional participation is deeply concerning. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs), mutual funds, insurance companies, and other domestic institutional investors collectively hold 0.00% of the company. This void of professional investor interest speaks volumes about the company's investment credentials. Institutional investors typically conduct rigorous due diligence and have access to management, yet none have found Oasis Securities worthy of even token allocation. The remaining 29.21% is held by non-institutional retail investors, many of whom may lack the resources for proper fundamental analysis.
Stock Performance: Brutal Decline Reflects Fundamental Weakness
The stock price performance of Oasis Securities over the past year has been catastrophic, with the share price plummeting 50.09% whilst the Sensex gained 8.49%—resulting in a staggering negative alpha of -58.58 percentage points. This severe underperformance extends across multiple timeframes: the stock is down 37.57% over one month, 47.35% over three months, and 53.61% over six months. The year-to-date decline stands at 35.14%, compared to the Sensex's 3.37% drop, highlighting consistent and persistent weakness.
| Period | Stock Return | Sensex Return | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | +1.61% | +0.60% | +1.01% |
| 1 Week | -12.22% | +0.53% | -12.75% |
| 1 Month | -37.57% | -3.17% | -34.40% |
| 3 Months | -47.35% | -2.70% | -44.65% |
| 6 Months | -53.61% | +1.80% | -55.41% |
| YTD | -35.14% | -3.37% | -31.77% |
| 1 Year | -50.09% | +8.49% | -58.58% |
| 3 Years | +71.31% | +38.79% | +32.52% |
| 5 Years | +361.54% | +75.67% | +285.87% |
Interestingly, the longer-term picture shows dramatic outperformance, with three-year returns of 71.31% (vs Sensex 38.79%) and five-year returns of 361.54% (vs Sensex 75.67%). However, this historical strength appears to have been driven by a very low base and possibly speculative interest, rather than fundamental improvement. The stock's recent collapse suggests that any previous gains were unsustainable and the market is now repricing the shares to reflect underlying business reality.
From a technical perspective, the stock is in a confirmed bearish trend since December 5, 2025, when it changed from "Mildly Bearish" at ₹20.32. Currently trading at ₹12.00, the stock is below all key moving averages: 5-day MA (₹13.94), 20-day MA (₹17.32), 50-day MA (₹19.08), 100-day MA (₹20.77), and 200-day MA (₹23.31). This technical setup indicates strong downward momentum with no immediate support levels until the 52-week low of ₹11.30. The stock's beta of 1.50 classifies it as high-beta, meaning it amplifies market movements—a particularly dangerous characteristic in a bearish trend.
"With the stock down 50% in a year, trading at expensive multiples, and exhibiting severe revenue volatility, Oasis Securities represents a value trap rather than a value opportunity."
Investment Thesis: Multiple Red Flags Outweigh Limited Positives
The investment case for Oasis Securities is overwhelmingly negative when assessed across the four key dimensions of near-term drivers, quality, valuation, and overall risk-reward. The company's proprietary Mojo score stands at just 20 out of 100, firmly in "STRONG SELL" territory (0-30 range), reflecting the convergence of multiple adverse factors. The financial trend is rated "Flat" as of Dec'25, whilst technical indicators remain firmly "Bearish"—a toxic combination that offers no catalyst for near-term recovery.
Quality assessment reveals a "Below Average" company based on long-term financial performance, with five-year sales growth at -35.75% and EBIT growth contracting at -13.44% annually. Valuation remains "Very Expensive" despite the price collapse, as the company trades at 31.98x P/E and 1.68x P/BV—multiples that would be justified only for high-growth, high-quality franchises. The overall assessment delivers "Mixed" signals at best, but the weight of evidence tilts decisively negative.
Key Strengths & Risk Factors
Key Strengths
- Debt-Free Balance Sheet: Zero long-term debt provides financial flexibility and eliminates interest burden, reducing financial risk.
- Strong Historical ROE: Average ROE of 18.19% over the longer term demonstrates past ability to generate returns, though recent performance has deteriorated.
- Stable Promoter Holding: Promoters maintain 70.79% stake with no pledging, indicating commitment and absence of financial distress at promoter level.
- High Operating Margins: Q2 FY26 operating margin of 76.74% (though declining) shows inherent profitability in core operations when revenue is generated.
- Micro-Cap Potential: At ₹22.20 crores market cap, the stock offers high potential upside if management can stabilise operations, though this cuts both ways with elevated risk.
Key Concerns
- Extreme Revenue Volatility: Quarterly sales swing wildly between ₹0.11 crores and ₹0.96 crores, indicating unsustainable and unpredictable business model.
- Deteriorating ROE: Latest ROE collapsed to 5.24% from historical average of 18.19%, signalling sharp decline in capital efficiency and profitability.
- Negative Long-Term Growth: Five-year sales CAGR of -35.75% and EBIT CAGR of -13.44% demonstrate sustained business contraction over medium term.
- Zero Institutional Interest: Complete absence of FII, mutual fund, and insurance holdings indicates lack of professional investor confidence in the business.
- Expensive Valuation: P/E of 31.98x and P/BV of 1.68x are unjustified premiums given deteriorating fundamentals and negative growth trajectory.
- Severe Price Decline: Stock down 50.09% in one year and 62.50% from 52-week high, reflecting loss of investor confidence and technical breakdown.
- Below Average Quality: Company graded "Below Average" on quality metrics with flat financial trend and bearish technical indicators providing no near-term catalysts.
Outlook: What to Watch Going Forward
Positive Catalysts
- Sustained sequential revenue growth across multiple quarters demonstrating business stabilisation
- ROE improvement back above 15% indicating recovery in capital efficiency
- Entry of institutional investors (FII/MF) signalling professional validation of turnaround story
- Management commentary providing clarity on business model and revenue visibility
- Technical trend reversal to "Mildly Bullish" or higher, indicating shift in market sentiment
Red Flags to Monitor
- Continued quarterly revenue volatility or further sequential declines in coming quarters
- ROE remaining below 10% for multiple quarters, confirming structural profitability issues
- Any promoter stake reduction or emergence of pledging, indicating loss of confidence
- Further deterioration in quality grade or financial trend assessment
- Break below ₹11.30 (52-week low) on high volumes, signalling capitulation and potential for further downside
The path forward for Oasis Securities remains highly uncertain. For any meaningful recovery, the company must first demonstrate consistent sequential revenue growth over at least 3-4 quarters, stabilising the wild volatility that has characterised recent performance. Simultaneously, management needs to articulate a clear business strategy and provide visibility into revenue drivers. Until these fundamental improvements materialise and are reflected in sustained financial metrics, the stock is likely to remain under pressure regardless of broader market movements.
The Verdict: Strong Sell on Deteriorating Fundamentals
Score: 20/100
For Fresh Investors: Avoid completely. The combination of severe revenue volatility, deteriorating ROE (now just 5.24%), negative five-year growth rates, expensive valuation (31.98x P/E), and bearish technical trend creates an exceptionally unfavourable risk-reward profile. Zero institutional interest and "Below Average" quality grade further underscore the lack of investment merit.
For Existing Holders: Exit on any technical bounce towards ₹14-15 levels to minimise losses. The stock has declined 50.09% over the past year and shows no signs of fundamental stabilisation. With Q2 FY26 profit down 63.64% quarter-on-quarter and financial trend rated "Flat", there is no catalyst for recovery. The 62.50% distance from 52-week high of ₹32.00 reflects a complete repricing of the business, and further downside towards ₹8-10 remains possible if operational deterioration continues.
Fair Value Estimate: ₹6.50 (46% downside from current ₹12.00), based on normalisation to peer-average P/BV of 0.9x applied to book value of ₹7.15. This assumes no further reserve erosion and stabilisation of current profitability levels—both optimistic assumptions given recent trends.
Note: ROCE = (EBIT - Other income)/(Capital Employed - Cash - Current Investments)
⚠️ Investment Disclaimer
This article is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence, consider their risk tolerance and investment objectives, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in micro-cap stocks carries substantial risk including potential total loss of capital.
