PTC Industries Q2 FY26: Stellar Revenue Growth Masks Margin Compression Concerns

Nov 15 2025 10:02 AM IST
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PTC Industries Ltd., a specialist manufacturer of industrial castings in steel, stainless steel, and super alloys, posted a remarkable turnaround in Q2 FY26 with net profit surging 251.55% quarter-on-quarter to ₹18.14 crores, rebounding sharply from the subdued ₹5.16 crores reported in Q1 FY26. On a year-on-year basis, the company registered a modest 4.79% growth in net profit compared to ₹17.31 crores in Q2 FY25. With a market capitalisation of ₹25,885 crores and trading at ₹16,948.05 as of November 14, 2025, the small-cap industrial player commands a premium valuation despite mixed operational signals.



The quarter's standout feature was the 72.21% year-on-year revenue expansion to ₹124.63 crores, the highest quarterly sales figure on record. However, this top-line exuberance was tempered by significant margin erosion, with operating margins (excluding other income) compressing to 20.65% from 29.35% in the year-ago quarter. The stock has delivered exceptional long-term returns—up 52.58% over the past year and a staggering 1,767.66% over five years—but faces valuation concerns with a price-to-earnings ratio of 410x and a PEG ratio of 6.14x.





Net Profit (Q2 FY26)

₹18.14 Cr

▲ 251.55% QoQ

▲ 4.79% YoY



Revenue (Q2 FY26)

₹124.63 Cr

▲ 28.29% QoQ

▲ 72.21% YoY



Operating Margin (Excl OI)

20.65%

▼ 870 bps YoY



PAT Margin

14.56%

▼ 936 bps YoY




The Lucknow-based company, incorporated in 1963 and serving aerospace, defence, and industrial sectors, finds itself at a crossroads. Whilst revenue momentum remains robust—driven by strong order execution and capacity expansion—profitability metrics reveal underlying operational challenges. The quarter saw employee costs balloon to ₹35.72 crores from ₹7.78 crores a year ago, reflecting both higher headcount and potentially wage inflation pressures. Simultaneously, interest costs declined 45.61% year-on-year to ₹1.86 crores, benefiting from debt reduction efforts that brought long-term borrowings down to ₹39.81 crores by March 2025 from ₹78.33 crores a year earlier.



Financial Performance: Revenue Surge Meets Margin Pressure



PTC Industries delivered its strongest quarterly revenue performance on record in Q2 FY26, with net sales reaching ₹124.63 crores—a 28.29% sequential improvement from Q1 FY26's ₹97.15 crores and a stellar 72.21% year-on-year jump from ₹72.37 crores. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of revenue above ₹66 crores, signalling sustained demand traction across the company's aerospace, defence, and industrial casting segments. On a half-yearly basis (H1 FY26), the company generated revenues of ₹221.78 crores, representing a robust 88.51% growth compared to H1 FY25's ₹119.24 crores.

























































































Quarter Revenue (₹ Cr) QoQ Change YoY Change Net Profit (₹ Cr) QoQ Change YoY Change PAT Margin
Sep'25 124.63 +28.29% +72.21% 18.14 +251.55% +4.79% 14.56%
Jun'25 97.15 -20.32% +107.28% 5.16 -79.00% +5.31% 5.31%
Mar'25 121.92 +82.19% +68.37% 24.57 +72.54% +66.92% 20.15%
Dec'24 66.92 -7.53% 14.24 -17.74% 21.28%
Sep'24 72.37 +54.41% 17.31 +253.27% 23.92%
Jun'24 46.87 -35.27% 4.90 -66.71% 10.45%
Mar'24 72.41 14.72 20.33%



However, the revenue euphoria was significantly dampened by margin compression across multiple levels. Operating profit margin (excluding other income) contracted sharply to 20.65% in Q2 FY26 from 29.35% in Q2 FY25—a deterioration of 870 basis points. The absolute operating profit (excluding other income) stood at ₹25.73 crores, up 21.15% year-on-year but reflecting substantially weaker operational efficiency. PAT margin similarly declined to 14.56% from 23.92% a year ago, a compression of 936 basis points, indicating that cost pressures extended beyond the operating level.



Employee costs emerged as the primary margin culprit, escalating to ₹35.72 crores in Q2 FY26 from ₹7.78 crores in Q2 FY25—a staggering 359.13% increase that far outpaced revenue growth. This dramatic rise suggests either significant workforce expansion to support capacity additions or substantial wage revisions, possibly both. On a half-yearly basis, employee costs totalled ₹69.66 crores compared to ₹15.69 crores in H1 FY25, representing 31.41% of revenues versus just 13.16% previously. Such a structural shift in the cost base raises questions about the sustainability of historical margin profiles as the company scales operations.




Margin Compression Alert


Operating margins (excluding other income) have deteriorated 870 basis points year-on-year to 20.65%. Employee costs now consume 28.66% of revenues versus 10.75% a year ago, representing a fundamental shift in the cost structure. Whilst capacity expansion and business scaling justify some increase, the magnitude suggests operational efficiency challenges that management must address to restore profitability to historical levels of 28-30%.




The quality of earnings warrants scrutiny given the elevated contribution of other income. In Q2 FY26, other income stood at ₹8.20 crores, constituting 35.70% of profit before tax—a concerning proportion that indicates significant reliance on non-operating sources. Whilst down from ₹10.57 crores in Q1 FY26, this metric has consistently remained elevated, with other income averaging 33.24% of PBT over the past four quarters. For a manufacturing enterprise, such dependence on treasury income, investment gains, or other non-core sources dilutes the operational earnings quality and raises sustainability concerns.



Capital Efficiency Challenges: Weak Return Metrics Persist



PTC Industries continues to grapple with suboptimal capital efficiency, a structural weakness that has persisted despite strong revenue growth. The company's average return on equity (ROE) stands at a modest 5.78%, significantly below the threshold of 15% typically expected from quality industrial enterprises. This weak profitability relative to shareholder capital reflects both the capital-intensive nature of the castings business and the company's ongoing investment phase, which has substantially expanded the asset base without commensurate profit generation.



Return on capital employed (ROCE) paints an equally concerning picture at an average of 7.11%, with the latest reading deteriorating further to 5.06%. For context, healthy industrial companies typically generate ROCE above 15-20%, indicating that PTC Industries earns barely enough to cover its cost of capital. This inefficiency stems from multiple factors: aggressive capacity expansion that has more than doubled fixed assets from ₹231.06 crores in March 2024 to ₹447.59 crores by March 2025, alongside working capital intensity that has absorbed significant cash. The company's sales-to-capital-employed ratio of 0.38x underscores the capital-heavy nature of operations, requiring ₹2.63 of capital deployment for every rupee of sales generated.




Balance Sheet Transformation: From Leveraged to Net Cash


In a positive development, PTC Industries has successfully deleveraged its balance sheet, reducing long-term debt from ₹96.38 crores in March 2023 to ₹39.81 crores by March 2025—a 58.70% reduction over two years. The company now maintains a net cash position with a net debt-to-equity ratio of -0.23x, indicating cash and equivalents exceed borrowings. This financial flexibility provides a cushion for ongoing capacity expansion and working capital requirements, though interest costs of ₹3.53 crores in H1 FY26 (up 54.15% from ₹2.29 crores in H1 FY25) suggest some residual borrowing costs remain elevated.




The company's shareholder equity has expanded dramatically through a combination of retained earnings and fresh capital infusion. From ₹306.66 crores in March 2023, shareholder funds surged to ₹1,386.66 crores by March 2025—a 352% increase driven by reserves growing to ₹1,371.68 crores. This capital base expansion, whilst providing financial stability, has diluted return metrics and contributed to the elevated price-to-book valuation of 18.31x. The share capital increased from ₹13.38 crores to ₹14.98 crores over the same period, reflecting some equity dilution that existing shareholders must absorb.



Working capital management presents another efficiency challenge. Current assets ballooned to ₹825.66 crores by March 2025 from ₹196.36 crores two years prior, whilst current liabilities declined marginally to ₹121.97 crores from ₹122.95 crores. This substantial working capital build-up—primarily in inventory and receivables—consumed ₹46.00 crores of cash in FY25 alone, as evidenced by the cash flow statement. For a company generating operating profit of ₹109 crores (including other income), such working capital intensity significantly erodes cash generation capability and signals potential collection or inventory turnover issues.



Aerospace & Defence Exposure: Sector Tailwinds Meet Execution Risks



PTC Industries operates in a structurally favourable environment, serving the aerospace, defence, and industrial sectors with precision castings manufactured from specialised metallurgy including cobalt, nickel, and tungsten-based alloys. The company's Lucknow facility produces critical components for aircraft engines, defence equipment, and industrial applications—segments experiencing robust demand driven by India's defence modernisation programme, commercial aviation recovery, and industrial capex revival.



The aerospace and defence sectors, in particular, offer multi-year visibility given long product qualification cycles, sticky customer relationships, and high switching costs. India's defence budget allocation continues expanding, whilst the government's push for indigenisation through Atmanirbhar Bharat creates opportunities for domestic suppliers like PTC Industries. The company's expertise in super alloy castings—a niche requiring significant technical capability—provides a competitive moat that limits new entrant threats and supports pricing power in select product categories.



However, execution challenges have emerged as the company scales operations. The dramatic 72.21% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2 FY26, whilst impressive, came at the cost of significant margin erosion, suggesting either unfavourable product mix, pricing pressures, or operational inefficiencies during capacity ramp-up. The company's operating profit (excluding other income) grew only 21.15% despite revenue surging 72.21%, indicating that incremental revenues are being generated at substantially lower margins than the existing base business.

















































































Metric Q2 FY26 Q2 FY25 Change H1 FY26 H1 FY25 Change
Revenue (₹ Cr) 124.63 72.37 +72.21% 221.78 119.24 +88.51%
Operating Profit Excl OI (₹ Cr) 25.73 21.24 +21.15% 34.52 31.29 +10.32%
Operating Margin Excl OI (%) 20.65% 29.35% -870 bps 15.57% 26.24% -1067 bps
Employee Cost (₹ Cr) 35.72 7.78 +359.13% 69.66 15.69 +343.88%
Employee Cost as % of Revenue 28.66% 10.75% +1791 bps 31.41% 13.16% +1825 bps
Net Profit (₹ Cr) 18.14 17.31 +4.79% 23.30 22.21 +4.91%
PAT Margin (%) 14.56% 23.92% -936 bps 10.51% 18.63% -812 bps



The capacity expansion programme, whilst necessary to capture growing demand, has introduced transitional challenges. Fixed assets more than doubled to ₹447.59 crores by March 2025, with significant capital expenditure of ₹501.00 crores in FY25 funded through a mix of internal accruals and fresh equity. The company raised ₹543.00 crores through financing activities in FY25, substantially increasing the equity base and diluting per-share metrics. As new capacities stabilise and utilisation rates improve, margins should theoretically recover, but the timeline and extent of recovery remain uncertain given persistent cost pressures.



Industry Leadership: Valuation Premium Without Peer-Beating Returns



PTC Industries commands the largest market capitalisation in the Other Industrial Products sector at ₹25,885 crores, yet its fundamental metrics lag considerably behind key peers. A comparative analysis reveals stark disparities in profitability, efficiency, and valuation that challenge the company's premium pricing.








































































Company Market Cap (₹ Cr) P/E (TTM) P/BV ROE (%) Debt/Equity Div Yield (%)
PTC Industries 25,885 409.54 18.31 5.78 -0.23
Inox India 45.61 11.11 25.16 -0.21 0.17
Esab India 44.32 22.54 42.27 -0.27 2.17
KRN Heat Exchanger 86.76 9.69 11.17 -0.08
Kirloskar Industries 25.52 0.62 6.39 0.18 0.35
Harsha Engg Intl 28.43 2.73 10.04 0.03 0.25



The peer comparison exposes several uncomfortable realities for PTC Industries investors. The company's P/E ratio of 409.54x dwarfs the peer average of approximately 46x (excluding PTC), representing a valuation premium of nearly 800%. This extreme multiple implies market expectations of exponential profit growth—expectations that appear divorced from the company's 5.78% average ROE, which ranks amongst the weakest in the peer group. Inox India generates ROE of 25.16% whilst Esab India achieves 42.27%, demonstrating that superior capital efficiency is achievable in similar industrial businesses.



The price-to-book valuation of 18.31x similarly appears excessive when contextualised against profitability. Esab India, despite commanding a higher P/BV of 22.54x, justifies this through ROE of 42.27%—more than seven times PTC Industries' return profile. Inox India trades at 11.11x book value with ROE of 25.16%, suggesting a more balanced risk-reward. PTC Industries' premium valuation appears predicated on growth expectations and sector positioning rather than current financial performance, creating significant downside risk if execution falters or margins fail to recover.



The absence of dividend payments from PTC Industries, whilst peers like Esab India offer 2.17% yield and others provide modest distributions, further questions the shareholder value proposition. Companies reinvesting all earnings must demonstrate commensurate returns on incremental capital—a test PTC Industries currently fails given ROCE of 5.06%. The company's net cash position of -0.23x debt-to-equity does provide financial flexibility, matching peers like Inox India and Esab India who also operate with minimal leverage, but this conservative balance sheet alone cannot justify the valuation gulf.



Valuation Analysis: Extreme Premium Defies Fundamental Justification



PTC Industries trades at valuation multiples that place it amongst the most expensive stocks in Indian equities, with metrics that appear disconnected from underlying business fundamentals. The company's P/E ratio of 409.54x compares to an industry average of 38x, representing a premium of 978% that seems unjustifiable given current profitability levels and growth rates.




Valuation Dashboard: Stretched Across All Metrics


P/E Ratio (TTM): 409.54x (Industry: 38x) | Price-to-Book: 18.31x | EV/EBITDA: 338.79x | EV/Sales: 69.97x | PEG Ratio: 6.14x | Dividend Yield: Nil


The company's valuation has been classified as "Very Expensive" since August 2020, with brief interruptions. Current multiples suggest the market is pricing in flawless execution of capacity expansion, significant margin recovery, and sustained high growth—a combination that history suggests rarely materialises simultaneously.




The PEG ratio of 6.14x provides perhaps the most damning valuation evidence. This metric, which divides the P/E ratio by the earnings growth rate, indicates investors are paying 6.14 times for each percentage point of growth—well above the 1.0x threshold that typically signals fair value. With 5-year EBIT growth of 15.25% and sales growth of 18.75%, the company's historical expansion does not justify current pricing. For the valuation to appear reasonable, PTC Industries would need to demonstrate sustained earnings growth above 60% annually—a target that seems implausible given current margin pressures and the capital-intensive nature of capacity additions.



Enterprise value metrics paint an equally stretched picture. EV/EBITDA of 338.79x and EV/Sales of 69.97x place PTC Industries in rarefied valuation territory typically reserved for high-growth technology companies or businesses with winner-takes-all market dynamics. Industrial manufacturing companies, even those in favourable end-markets, rarely sustain such premiums long-term. The EV/Capital Employed ratio of 23.53x further emphasises the disconnect, suggesting the market values each rupee of deployed capital at more than 23 times—despite the company generating ROCE of merely 5.06%.



From a historical perspective, the stock has delivered phenomenal returns—up 52.58% over one year, 244.55% over two years, and 1,767.66% over five years. These past gains, however, may have created valuation momentum divorced from fundamentals, with investors extrapolating historical performance into perpetuity. The stock currently trades just 5.73% below its 52-week high of ₹17,978.00, having rallied 73.18% from its 52-week low of ₹9,786.30, suggesting limited near-term upside cushion even if business performance improves.




"At 409x trailing earnings and 18x book value with ROE of merely 5.8%, PTC Industries embodies the classic value trap—a growth story priced for perfection that offers minimal margin of safety for investors entering at current levels."


Shareholding: Institutional Confidence Remains Tepid



The shareholding pattern reveals modest institutional participation despite the company's premium valuation and strong stock price performance. As of September 2025, promoters hold a stable 59.75% stake, down marginally from 59.80% in September 2024, with zero pledging—a positive indicator of promoter confidence and financial stability. However, institutional holdings remain surprisingly low for a company of this market capitalisation and sector positioning.








































































Shareholder Category Sep'25 Jun'25 Mar'25 Dec'24 Sep'24 QoQ Change
Promoter 59.75% 59.75% 59.75% 59.75% 59.80% 0.00%
FII 3.41% 3.39% 3.07% 3.37% 4.53% +0.02%
Mutual Fund 6.24% 5.74% 5.64% 4.83% 3.82% +0.50%
Insurance 0.05% 0.03% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% +0.02%
Other DII 2.22% 1.95% 1.94% 1.66% 1.11% +0.27%
Non-Institutional 28.32% 29.14% 29.59% 30.38% 30.73% -0.82%



Mutual fund holdings have shown consistent expansion, rising from 3.82% in September 2024 to 6.24% by September 2025, with 20 mutual fund schemes now holding positions. The sequential increase of 50 basis points from June to September 2025 suggests growing institutional interest, though the absolute level remains modest for a company with ₹25,885 crores market capitalisation. Foreign institutional investors maintain a minimal 3.41% stake, having actually reduced exposure from 4.53% a year ago, indicating that global investors remain sceptical about the valuation or business prospects.



Insurance companies hold a negligible 0.05% stake, whilst other domestic institutional investors account for 2.22%—bringing total institutional holdings to just 11.92%. This limited institutional ownership, despite the stock's inclusion in the small-cap segment where fund managers actively seek opportunities, suggests sophisticated investors may be wary of the stretched valuation or concerned about business sustainability. The high retail participation at 28.32% (non-institutional category) indicates the stock may be driven more by momentum and sentiment than fundamental analysis.



The promoter group, led by Sachin Agarwal with 19.06% personal holding and controlled entities holding additional stakes, maintains strong alignment with public shareholders through zero pledging. Key promoters include Mapple Commerce Private Limited (10.68%), Nirala Merchants Private Limited (7.86%), and Priya Ranjan Agarwal (6.59%). The stable promoter holding over the past five quarters, combined with zero pledging, provides comfort regarding governance and financial stability, though it also means no significant secondary market supply from this source to moderate valuation excesses.



Stock Performance: Exceptional Long-Term Gains Create High Base



PTC Industries has delivered extraordinary wealth creation over extended timeframes, with returns that significantly outpace both benchmark indices and sector peers. The stock has generated absolute returns of 52.58% over the past year, 244.55% over two years, and a staggering 1,767.66% over five years—performance that places it amongst the top wealth creators in the Indian small-cap universe.






















































































Period Stock Return Sensex Return Alpha Sector Return
1 Week -2.73% +1.62% -4.35%
1 Month +2.55% +3.09% -0.54%
3 Months +23.35% +4.92% +18.43%
6 Months +21.02% +3.97% +17.05%
Year-to-Date +26.06% +8.22% +17.84%
1 Year +52.58% +9.00% +43.58% +5.38%
2 Years +244.55% +30.23% +214.32%
3 Years +485.20% +37.22% +447.98%
5 Years +1,767.66% +93.78% +1,673.88%
10 Years +9,161.23% +230.19% +8,931.04%



The alpha generation versus the Sensex has been phenomenal across all meaningful timeframes—43.58% over one year, 214.32% over two years, and 1,673.88% over five years. This consistent outperformance reflects both the company's business transformation and the re-rating of valuation multiples as markets recognised the aerospace and defence opportunity. Notably, the stock has outperformed its sector by 47.20% over the past year, with Other Industrial Products returning just 5.38% compared to PTC Industries' 52.58% gain.



However, recent momentum has shown signs of exhaustion. The stock declined 2.73% over the past week and underperformed the Sensex by 0.54% over one month, suggesting near-term consolidation or profit-booking after the strong run. From a technical perspective, the stock trades in a bullish trend that commenced on October 15, 2025, supported by positive signals from MACD, On-Balance Volume, and KST indicators. The stock currently sits above its 50-day moving average of ₹15,951.40 and 200-day moving average of ₹14,397.12, though marginally below shorter-term averages, indicating some loss of momentum.



The stock's beta of 1.35 classifies it as a high-beta security, meaning it exhibits 35% more volatility than the broader market. This elevated volatility, combined with annualised volatility of 44.10%, positions PTC Industries in the "high risk, high return" category. The risk-adjusted return of 1.19 over the past year compares favourably to the Sensex's 0.73, suggesting that whilst volatile, the stock has adequately compensated investors for the additional risk undertaken—though this relationship may not persist if business fundamentals deteriorate or valuation compression occurs.



Investment Thesis: Growth Story Priced Beyond Perfection



The investment case for PTC Industries rests on several pillars: exposure to structurally growing aerospace and defence sectors, niche technical capabilities in super alloy castings, capacity expansion to capture market share, and a deleveraged balance sheet providing financial flexibility. The company has demonstrated execution capability through consistent revenue growth, order book expansion, and successful capacity commissioning. Management's focus on indigenisation opportunities and import substitution aligns with government priorities, potentially providing a multi-year growth runway.




Mojo Investment Parameters


Overall Score: 50/100 (HOLD)


Valuation: Very Expensive (P/E: 409x, PEG: 6.14x) | Quality Grade: Below Average (ROE: 5.78%, ROCE: 7.11%) | Financial Trend: Positive (Q2 FY26 trend positive) | Technical Trend: Bullish (Since Oct 15, 2025)


The mixed signals across parameters—positive near-term drivers offset by poor quality metrics and extreme valuation—result in a neutral overall assessment that favours existing holders over fresh buyers.




However, significant headwinds cloud this optimistic narrative. The company's weak return on equity of 5.78% and return on capital employed of 7.11% indicate poor capital efficiency that has persisted despite business growth. The dramatic margin compression in recent quarters—operating margins declining from 29.35% to 20.65% year-on-year—raises questions about pricing power, cost control, and the profitability of incremental business. Employee costs ballooning to 28.66% of revenues from 10.75% previously represents a structural shift that may prove difficult to reverse.



The quality of earnings concerns, with other income constituting 35.70% of profit before tax, dilute the operational earnings profile and raise sustainability questions. The company's PEG ratio of 6.14x and P/E ratio of 409x price in flawless execution and significant margin recovery—outcomes that appear optimistic given current trends. The limited institutional ownership of 11.92% suggests sophisticated investors remain sceptical, whilst the high retail participation of 28.32% indicates potential sentiment-driven volatility.





KEY STRENGTHS



  • Exceptional revenue growth of 72.21% YoY in Q2 FY26, demonstrating strong demand traction

  • Exposure to structurally growing aerospace and defence sectors with multi-year visibility

  • Niche technical capabilities in super alloy castings creating competitive moat

  • Net cash balance sheet with debt-to-equity of -0.23x providing financial flexibility

  • Zero promoter pledging and stable 59.75% promoter holding indicating strong governance

  • Successful capacity expansion from ₹231 crores to ₹448 crores in fixed assets

  • Phenomenal long-term stock returns of 1,768% over five years




KEY CONCERNS



  • Severe margin compression with operating margins declining 870 bps YoY to 20.65%

  • Weak capital efficiency with ROE of 5.78% and ROCE of 7.11%, well below industry standards

  • Extreme valuation with P/E of 409x and PEG ratio of 6.14x pricing perfection

  • Employee costs surged 359% YoY, now consuming 28.66% of revenues versus 10.75% previously

  • Poor earnings quality with other income at 35.70% of PBT indicating non-operating reliance

  • Limited institutional ownership of 11.92% suggesting sophisticated investor scepticism

  • High working capital intensity absorbing cash and indicating potential collection issues





Outlook: Critical Inflection Point Demands Margin Recovery



PTC Industries stands at a critical juncture where the next few quarters will determine whether the company can justify its premium valuation or faces a painful re-rating. The immediate priority must be margin recovery—demonstrating that the Q2 FY26 compression was transitional rather than structural. Management commentary on capacity utilisation rates, product mix optimisation, and cost control initiatives will be crucial indicators of execution capability.





POSITIVE CATALYSTS



  • Stabilisation of new capacity utilisation driving operating leverage and margin recovery

  • Defence order announcements or long-term supply agreements providing revenue visibility

  • Employee cost rationalisation as temporary hiring bulge normalises

  • Improvement in working capital cycle releasing trapped cash

  • Sustained quarterly revenue above ₹120 crores demonstrating demand sustainability




RED FLAGS TO MONITOR



  • Further margin compression below 20% indicating structural profitability challenges

  • Employee costs remaining above 25% of revenues for multiple quarters

  • Other income exceeding 30% of PBT consistently, diluting earnings quality

  • Working capital continuing to absorb cash, indicating collection or inventory issues

  • Institutional investors reducing stakes or mutual funds exiting positions





The aerospace and defence sectors' structural tailwinds remain intact, with government spending priorities and indigenisation programmes supporting long-term demand. However, translating this macro opportunity into profitable growth at the company level requires operational excellence that PTC Industries has yet to consistently demonstrate. The capacity expansion investments of ₹501 crores in FY25 must generate adequate returns—measured through improving ROCE and ROE—to validate the capital deployment strategy.



For existing shareholders, the decision hinges on conviction regarding management's ability to restore margins to historical 28-30% levels and improve capital efficiency. The stock's technical bullish trend and positive momentum provide some near-term support, though valuation leaves minimal room for disappointment. For prospective investors, the risk-reward appears unfavourable at current prices given the stretched multiples and execution uncertainties. A more prudent approach would involve waiting for either significant valuation correction (30-40% from current levels) or sustained demonstration of margin recovery and improved return metrics over 2-3 quarters.




The Verdict: Hold for Existing, Avoid for Fresh Investors


HOLD

Score: 50/100


For Fresh Investors: Not recommended for fresh purchase. The extreme valuation (P/E: 409x, PEG: 6.14x) combined with weak return metrics (ROE: 5.78%, ROCE: 7.11%) and severe margin compression creates an unfavourable risk-reward profile. Wait for either significant price correction (30-40%) or sustained margin recovery demonstration over multiple quarters before considering entry.


For Existing Holders: Continue to hold given the positive financial trend, technical bullish momentum, and structural sector tailwinds. However, closely monitor quarterly margin trajectory and employee cost trends. Consider partial profit booking if operating margins fail to recover above 23-25% by Q4 FY26 or if institutional investors begin reducing stakes materially.


Fair Value Estimate: ₹10,500-12,000 (38-29% downside from current price of ₹16,948), assuming margin recovery to 24-26% and normalised P/E of 180-220x over the next 12-18 months.





Note- ROCE = (EBIT - Other Income)/(Capital Employed - Cash - Current Investments)





⚠️ Investment Disclaimer


This article is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence, consider their risk tolerance and investment objectives, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The stock market involves risk, and investors may lose principal. The analysis presented reflects data available as of November 19, 2025, and market conditions may change materially thereafter.





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