Jet Freight Logistics Ltd Upgraded to Hold on Technical Improvements and Valuation Appeal

Quality Assessment: Weak Long-Term Fundamentals Temper Optimism

Jet Freight’s quality parameters continue to reflect underlying weaknesses in its fundamental business performance. Over the past five years, the company has experienced a marginally negative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -0.42% in net sales, signalling stagnation in top-line expansion. Profitability metrics remain subdued, with an average return on equity (ROE) of 8.30%, indicating limited efficiency in generating shareholder returns. Furthermore, the company’s ability to service debt is constrained, as evidenced by a high Debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.15 times, raising concerns about financial leverage and risk.

Recent quarterly results for Q2 FY25-26 were largely flat, with net sales at ₹83.78 crores and a 9-month profit after tax (PAT) of ₹2.99 crores, which represents a sharp decline of 30.79% year-on-year. The dividend payout ratio remains at a minimal 0.00%, reflecting a cautious capital allocation stance amid profitability pressures.

Valuation: Attractive Metrics Support Upgrade

Despite the weak fundamental backdrop, Jet Freight’s valuation profile has improved, contributing significantly to the rating upgrade. The company currently trades at a very attractive Enterprise Value to Capital Employed (EV/CE) ratio of 1.1, which is notably lower than its peers’ historical averages. This discount suggests that the market is pricing in the company’s challenges, potentially offering value to investors willing to tolerate near-term headwinds.

Return on capital employed (ROCE) stands at 9.8%, a figure that, while modest, supports the case for a Hold rating given the valuation discount. The stock’s current price of ₹17.15, up 3.00% on the day, remains well below its 52-week high of ₹21.45 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹10.45, indicating some recovery potential.

Financial Trend: Flat Performance Amid Profit Declines

The financial trend for Jet Freight remains largely flat, with no significant growth momentum visible in recent quarters. The company’s year-to-date (YTD) return of 5.54% marginally outperforms the Sensex’s 0.26% return, but the one-year return of -2.00% lags behind the Sensex’s robust 7.85% gain. Over longer horizons, the stock has underperformed the benchmark significantly, with a three-year return of -0.94% compared to Sensex’s 41.57%.

Profitability has deteriorated, with a 19% decline in profits over the past year, reflecting operational challenges and margin pressures. The flat net sales and shrinking PAT underscore the need for cautious optimism despite valuation support.

Technicals: Bullish Momentum Drives Upgrade

The most decisive factor behind the upgrade to Hold is the marked improvement in technical indicators. The technical grade has shifted from mildly bullish to bullish, signalling stronger momentum in the stock price. Key technical metrics include:

• MACD: Weekly readings are bullish, although monthly indicators remain mildly bearish, suggesting short-term strength with some longer-term caution.


• RSI: Weekly RSI shows no clear signal, while monthly RSI remains bearish, indicating potential overbought conditions in the longer term.


• Bollinger Bands: Both weekly and monthly bands are bullish, supporting the case for continued price appreciation.


• Moving Averages: Daily moving averages are bullish, reinforcing near-term upward momentum.


• KST (Know Sure Thing): Both weekly and monthly KST indicators are bullish, signalling positive momentum across multiple timeframes.


• Dow Theory: Weekly data shows no clear trend, but monthly readings are mildly bullish, suggesting a nascent uptrend.


• On-Balance Volume (OBV): No clear trend on weekly or monthly charts, indicating volume support is neutral.

The stock’s recent price action, with a close at ₹17.15 and intraday highs of ₹17.38, reflects this technical strength. The upgrade aligns with these signals, suggesting that the stock may be poised for a recovery phase, albeit with caution given mixed longer-term indicators.

Shareholding and Market Capitalisation

Jet Freight remains majority-owned by promoters, which can provide stability but also concentrates control. The company holds a Market Cap Grade of 4, indicating a moderate market capitalisation relative to its sector peers. This status, combined with the technical upgrade and valuation appeal, supports the Hold rating as investors weigh risks and opportunities.

Comparative Performance and Outlook

When benchmarked against the Sensex, Jet Freight’s returns have been underwhelming over most periods. The stock’s one-month return of -14.21% starkly contrasts with the Sensex’s modest -0.32%, highlighting recent volatility and investor caution. However, the positive year-to-date return of 5.54% versus the Sensex’s 0.26% suggests some recovery momentum in early 2026.

Longer-term underperformance, including a three-year return of -0.94% against Sensex’s 41.57%, emphasises the structural challenges the company faces. Investors should consider these factors alongside the improved technical outlook and valuation discounts when assessing the stock’s potential.

Conclusion: Hold Rating Reflects Balanced View

The upgrade of Jet Freight Logistics Ltd from Sell to Hold by MarketsMOJO on 5 January 2026 reflects a balanced assessment of the company’s current position. While fundamental weaknesses such as flat sales growth, declining profits, and high leverage persist, the stock’s attractive valuation and improved technical indicators provide a foundation for cautious optimism.

Investors are advised to monitor the company’s financial trends closely, particularly profitability and debt servicing capacity, while considering the positive momentum in price action. The Hold rating suggests that while the stock is not yet a clear buy, it has moved out of the sell territory and may offer value for investors with a medium-term horizon willing to navigate sector-specific risks.

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