Thirani Projects Ltd Upgraded to Sell on Technical Improvement Despite Weak Fundamentals

Quality Assessment: Persistent Fundamental Challenges

Despite the recent upgrade, Thirani Projects’ quality metrics remain underwhelming. The company reported flat financial performance in the fourth quarter of FY25-26, with earnings per share (EPS) hitting a low of just ₹0.03. Its long-term fundamental strength is weak, reflected in an average Return on Equity (ROE) of 1.69%, which is significantly below industry standards. Net sales have grown at a modest annual rate of 2.47%, indicating limited top-line expansion.

Over the past year, the stock has underperformed the broader market considerably. While the BSE500 index declined by 1.52%, Thirani Projects’ share price plummeted by 35.19%, signalling investor concerns over its operational and financial health. Profitability has also deteriorated, with profits falling by 27% over the same period.

Valuation: Attractive but Reflective of Risks

On the valuation front, Thirani Projects presents a mixed picture. The company’s ROE of 3.7% and a Price to Book Value (P/BV) ratio of 0.7 suggest that the stock is trading at a discount relative to its peers’ historical valuations. This valuation discount could be attractive to value investors seeking micro-cap opportunities in the NBFC sector. However, the discount also reflects the market’s cautious stance given the company’s weak growth and profitability metrics.

Its micro-cap status further adds to the risk profile, with limited liquidity and higher volatility compared to larger NBFCs. The majority of shares are held by non-institutional investors, which may contribute to less stable trading patterns.

Financial Trend: Flat Performance Amidst Market Headwinds

Thirani Projects’ recent quarterly results have been largely flat, with no significant improvement in earnings or revenue growth. The EPS of ₹0.03 in Q4 FY25-26 marks one of the lowest points in recent years. This stagnation is concerning given the broader NBFC sector’s recovery and growth trajectory.

Comparatively, the company’s stock returns over various periods highlight a mixed trend. While it has delivered impressive long-term returns of 100% over three years and 129.51% over five years, its one-year return of -35.19% starkly contrasts with the Sensex’s modest decline of 7.08%. Year-to-date, the stock is down 9.87%, slightly worse than the Sensex’s 9.06% fall.

Technicals: Key Driver Behind Upgrade

The primary catalyst for the upgrade from Strong Sell to Sell is the improvement in technical indicators. The technical grade has shifted from bearish to mildly bearish, signalling a potential stabilisation in the stock’s price movement. Key technical metrics reveal a nuanced picture:

• MACD: Weekly remains bearish, but monthly has improved to mildly bearish.
• RSI: Both weekly and monthly show no clear signal, indicating a neutral momentum.
• Bollinger Bands: Weekly readings are bullish, suggesting short-term upward price pressure, while monthly remains mildly bearish.
• Moving Averages: Daily averages are mildly bearish, reflecting some caution among traders.
• KST (Know Sure Thing): Weekly is mildly bullish, but monthly remains mildly bearish, indicating mixed momentum across timeframes.
• Dow Theory: Weekly is mildly bearish, with no clear monthly trend.

These technical signals collectively point to a tentative improvement in market sentiment, which has been reflected in the stock’s recent price action. On 3 July 2026, Thirani Projects closed at ₹4.20, up 13.51% from the previous close of ₹3.70, with an intraday high of ₹4.30. The stock remains well below its 52-week high of ₹7.44 but has rebounded from its 52-week low of ₹3.42.

Market Context and Outlook

Thirani Projects operates in the NBFC sector, which has faced significant challenges in recent years due to tightening credit conditions and regulatory scrutiny. The company’s micro-cap status and non-institutional majority shareholding add layers of risk and volatility. While the technical upgrade offers some hope for a near-term recovery, the fundamental weaknesses and flat financial trends suggest caution.

Investors should weigh the attractive valuation against the company’s poor long-term growth and profitability metrics. The stock’s underperformance relative to the broader market over the past year underscores the risks involved. However, the improved technical outlook may provide short-term trading opportunities for risk-tolerant investors.

Conclusion: A Cautious Upgrade Reflecting Technical Recovery

The upgrade of Thirani Projects Ltd’s investment rating from Strong Sell to Sell by MarketsMOJO on 2 July 2026 is a reflection of improved technical indicators rather than a turnaround in fundamental performance. While the stock’s valuation appears attractive with a P/BV of 0.7 and a modest ROE of 3.7%, the company’s flat financial results, weak profitability, and underwhelming growth remain significant concerns.

Technical signals such as a shift from bearish to mildly bearish trends, bullish weekly Bollinger Bands, and a recent strong price rebound have contributed to a more optimistic near-term outlook. However, investors should remain cautious given the stock’s historical underperformance and the challenging operating environment for NBFCs.

For those considering exposure to Thirani Projects, it is advisable to monitor both fundamental developments and technical trends closely, while also exploring alternative investment opportunities within the sector and broader market.

Only Rs. 9,999 - Get MojoOne + Stock of the Week for 1 Year Start at 33% Off →