Tiger Logistics Downgraded to Sell Amid Mixed Financial and Technical Signals

Technical Trends Shift to Mildly Bearish

The primary catalyst for the downgrade stems from changes in the technical grade, which shifted from bearish to mildly bearish. The weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned mildly bullish, suggesting some short-term momentum, but the monthly MACD remains bearish, indicating persistent downward pressure over a longer horizon. Similarly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts shows no clear signal, reflecting market indecision.

Bollinger Bands analysis reveals a mildly bearish stance on both weekly and monthly timeframes, while daily moving averages also lean mildly bearish. The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator remains bearish on both weekly and monthly scales, reinforcing the cautious technical outlook. Dow Theory presents a mixed picture with a mildly bullish weekly trend but a bearish monthly trend. On-balance volume (OBV) is mildly bullish weekly but lacks a clear trend monthly, suggesting volume support is inconsistent.

These mixed technical signals have contributed to a cautious stance, with the overall technical grade adjustment signalling that while short-term price action shows some resilience, the broader trend remains under pressure.

Valuation Grade Improves to Attractive

Contrasting the technical caution, Tiger Logistics’ valuation grade has improved from very attractive to attractive. The company currently trades at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14.21, which is reasonable compared to peers in the logistics sector. Its price-to-book value stands at 2.64, and enterprise value to EBIT and EBITDA ratios are 13.33 and 12.99 respectively, indicating moderate valuation levels.

The PEG ratio is notably low at 0.34, signalling that the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings growth potential. Return on capital employed (ROCE) is a healthy 17.17%, while return on equity (ROE) is 18.54%, reflecting efficient capital utilisation. The enterprise value to capital employed ratio of 2.29 further supports the attractive valuation thesis.

When compared with peers such as Allcargo Logistics and Western Carriers, Tiger Logistics’ valuation metrics suggest it is trading at a discount, despite some peers being loss-making or carrying higher risk profiles. This valuation improvement provides a silver lining amid the broader negative sentiment.

Financial Trend Reflects Recent Weakness

Despite some positive valuation signals, Tiger Logistics’ recent financial performance has been disappointing. The company reported a 32.02% decline in profit before tax (PBT) for Q3 FY25-26, falling to ₹5.86 crores. Net profit after tax (PAT) also dropped by 29.5% to ₹5.94 crores, while net sales declined 13.37% to ₹139.02 crores.

This negative quarterly performance has contributed to a deteriorating financial trend grade. Over the past year, the stock has delivered a return of -36.90%, significantly underperforming the BSE Sensex, which gained 9.85% over the same period. The three-year return of -7.60% also lags the Sensex’s 37.89% gain, highlighting sustained underperformance.

However, it is worth noting that despite the stock’s negative price returns, the company’s profits have risen by 41.8% over the past year, indicating some operational improvement. The PEG ratio of 0.34 further suggests that earnings growth is not fully reflected in the share price, offering a potential value opportunity for long-term investors.

Quality Assessment: Strong Management Efficiency but Mixed Returns

Tiger Logistics maintains a high-quality rating in terms of management efficiency, with an impressive ROE of 34.49%. This indicates that the company is effective at generating returns on shareholder equity. Additionally, the firm’s debt servicing capability is robust, with a low Debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.62 times, signalling manageable leverage and financial stability.

The company’s ROCE of 17.2% further underscores its ability to generate returns from capital employed, supporting the attractive valuation grade. However, the long-term stock performance remains below par, with a 10-year return of 157.07% trailing the Sensex’s 264.02% gain. This mixed quality profile reflects operational strengths tempered by market underperformance.

Market Price and Trading Range

On 13 Feb 2026, Tiger Logistics closed at ₹37.07, up 11.83% from the previous close of ₹33.15. The stock traded within a range of ₹32.51 to ₹38.00 during the day. Its 52-week high stands at ₹64.51, while the 52-week low is ₹28.52, indicating significant volatility over the past year.

The recent price surge contrasts with the longer-term downtrend, reflecting short-term technical improvements but underlying fundamental challenges.

Summary and Outlook

The downgrade of Tiger Logistics (India) Ltd from Hold to Sell by MarketsMOJO reflects a nuanced assessment across four key parameters. The technical grade shift to mildly bearish highlights caution in price momentum despite some short-term bullish signals. Valuation improvements to an attractive grade suggest the stock is reasonably priced relative to earnings and peers, offering potential value.

However, the financial trend remains weak due to recent quarterly declines in profitability and sales, alongside sustained underperformance relative to benchmark indices. The quality grade is mixed, with strong management efficiency and debt metrics offset by disappointing stock returns over multiple timeframes.

Investors should weigh these factors carefully. While the stock’s valuation and operational metrics offer some appeal, the negative financial trends and technical caution warrant prudence. The current rating of Sell reflects this balanced but cautious stance, signalling that better opportunities may exist elsewhere in the transport services sector.

Key Metrics at a Glance:

• Current Price: ₹37.07
• PE Ratio: 14.21
• PEG Ratio: 0.34
• ROE: 18.54%
• ROCE: 17.17%
• Debt to EBITDA: 0.62 times
• 1-Year Stock Return: -36.90%
• 1-Year Sensex Return: 9.85%
• Technical Grade: Mildly Bearish
• Valuation Grade: Attractive
• Mojo Score: 41.0 (Sell)

Majority shareholding remains with promoters, indicating stable ownership structure. The stock’s recent volatility and mixed signals suggest that investors should monitor upcoming quarterly results and technical developments closely before considering new positions.

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