Key Events This Week
23 Feb: Valuation shifts to fair amid market gains
25 Feb: Bearish technical momentum intensifies
27 Feb: Technical momentum shifts to mildly bearish with a 3.51% gain
Weekly Close: Rs.460.35 (-3.97%) vs Sensex -0.96%
23 February 2026: Valuation Shifts to Fair Amid Market Gains
On Monday, Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd’s valuation was reassessed, moving from a previously very attractive rating to a fair valuation grade. This adjustment reflected evolving market perceptions amid steady price appreciation and improving financial metrics. The stock closed at Rs.470.10, down 1.94% from the previous close, despite the Sensex gaining 0.39% that day.
The company’s price-to-earnings ratio stood at 19.98, signalling a fair valuation compared to its historical attractiveness. Other valuation multiples such as EV to EBIT (13.74) and EV to EBITDA (13.59) suggested moderate valuation levels. Return on capital employed (ROCE) and return on equity (ROE) were solid at 11.23% and 14.33% respectively, supporting the fair valuation grade.
Compared to peers with P/E ratios exceeding 60, Aadhar’s valuation appeared reasonable, positioning it as a balanced option within the housing finance sector. The MarketsMOJO score had improved to 52.0 with a Mojo Grade upgrade from Sell to Hold on 9 February 2026, reflecting a more balanced outlook.
25 February 2026: Bearish Technical Momentum Intensifies
Midweek, the stock faced mounting technical pressure, closing at Rs.457.80, a 1.22% gain on the day but down 3.79% from the previous session. This followed a sharp decline on 24 February when the stock fell 3.79% amid a broader market sell-off. The Sensex also declined 0.78% on 24 February, indicating a challenging environment.
Technical indicators signalled a bearish trend with deteriorating moving averages, bearish MACD, and Bollinger Bands readings. The weekly MACD remained bearish, and the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator aligned with this negative momentum. Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered in neutral territory, suggesting no immediate reversal pressure.
The stock’s one-month return was down 3.34%, underperforming the Sensex’s 0.84% gain, while year-to-date losses stood at 6.64% versus the Sensex’s 3.51% gain. Despite this, the stock’s one-year return remained robust at 23.41%, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s 10.44%.
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27 February 2026: Technical Momentum Shifts to Mildly Bearish Amid Mixed Signals
On Friday, Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd rebounded with a 3.51% gain, closing at Rs.473.85. This recovery followed the prior days’ bearish momentum and was accompanied by mixed technical signals. The stock’s intraday high reached Rs.477.90, indicating renewed buying interest.
Despite the weekly MACD remaining bearish, the monthly MACD was neutral, suggesting stabilisation over a longer horizon. Bollinger Bands presented a mixed picture with weekly bands bearish but monthly bands mildly bullish. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator showed mild bullishness on the monthly scale, hinting at some accumulation.
The MarketsMOJO score improved to 58.0 with a Hold rating, upgraded from Sell earlier in February. This reflected cautious optimism amid lingering bearish short-term indicators. The stock’s year-to-date decline of 2.25% was slightly better than the Sensex’s 3.49% fall, and the one-month return of 1.21% also outperformed the Sensex’s 0.87%.
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Daily Price Performance Versus Sensex
| Date | Stock Price | Day Change | Sensex | Day Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | Rs.470.10 | -1.94% | 36,817.86 | +0.39% |
| 2026-02-24 | Rs.452.30 | -3.79% | 36,530.09 | -0.78% |
| 2026-02-25 | Rs.457.80 | +1.22% | 36,679.75 | +0.41% |
| 2026-02-26 | Rs.473.85 | +3.51% | 36,748.49 | +0.19% |
| 2026-02-27 | Rs.460.35 | -2.85% | 36,322.56 | -1.16% |
Key Takeaways
Valuation Adjustment: The shift from very attractive to fair valuation reflects improved financial metrics but also a more cautious market stance. The stock’s P/E ratio near 20 and solid ROCE and ROE underpin a balanced investment profile within the housing finance sector.
Technical Challenges: The week was dominated by bearish technical momentum, with multiple indicators signalling downward pressure. The bearish MACD, Bollinger Bands, and moving averages suggest short-term weakness, although neutral RSI and mildly bullish monthly OBV hint at potential stabilisation.
Mixed Momentum and Recovery Signs: The late-week 3.51% gain and shift to a mildly bearish technical outlook indicate that selling pressure may be easing. The MarketsMOJO upgrade to a Hold rating supports a cautious optimism, though confirmation of trend reversal requires sustained strength above key technical levels.
Relative Performance: The stock underperformed the Sensex over the week and month but continues to outperform over the one-year horizon, highlighting resilience amid sector volatility.
Conclusion
Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd’s week was marked by a complex interplay of valuation reassessment, technical downturn, and tentative recovery. While the stock closed the week down 3.97%, underperforming the Sensex’s 0.96% decline, the underlying fundamentals remain solid with fair valuation and strong profitability metrics. The technical indicators caution investors about near-term risks, but the recent momentum shift and rating upgrade suggest the stock may be entering a phase of consolidation or gradual recovery. Investors should monitor key technical levels and sector developments closely to gauge the stock’s next directional move.
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