Adani Energy Solutions Ltd Shows Mixed Technical Signals Amid Mildly Bullish Momentum

Technical Trend and Price Movement Overview

As of 22 Jan 2026, Adani Energy Solutions Ltd (stock code 999961) closed at ₹898.65, marking a 1.52% increase from the previous close of ₹885.20. The intraday range saw a low of ₹877.45 and a high of ₹907.80, reflecting moderate volatility within the power sector. The stock remains below its 52-week high of ₹1,067.30 but comfortably above its 52-week low of ₹639.35, indicating a recovery phase from prior lows.

The technical trend has shifted from a sideways pattern to mildly bullish, signalling a tentative uptrend. This is supported by daily moving averages that have turned mildly bullish, suggesting short-term momentum is improving. However, weekly and monthly indicators present a more nuanced picture, with some bearish signals persisting.

MACD and Momentum Indicators

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator reveals a divergence in momentum across timeframes. On a weekly basis, the MACD remains mildly bearish, indicating that the medium-term momentum is still under pressure. Conversely, the monthly MACD has turned mildly bullish, suggesting that longer-term momentum is beginning to improve. This divergence implies that while short-term traders may face resistance, longer-term investors could find emerging opportunities as the stock attempts to regain strength.

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator echoes this mixed sentiment. Weekly KST readings are mildly bearish, reinforcing caution in the near term, whereas monthly KST readings have improved to mildly bullish, aligning with the monthly MACD’s positive outlook.

RSI and Bollinger Bands Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no definitive signal, hovering in neutral territory. This suggests the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, providing a balanced backdrop for potential price movements without extreme momentum biases.

Bollinger Bands add further complexity. Weekly Bollinger Bands indicate a bearish stance, with the stock price gravitating towards the lower band, signalling potential downward pressure or consolidation. In contrast, monthly Bollinger Bands remain sideways, reflecting a lack of strong directional movement over the longer term.

Volume and On-Balance Volume (OBV) Insights

Volume trends are critical in confirming price momentum shifts. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator is mildly bearish on a weekly basis, suggesting that recent price gains may not be strongly supported by volume. However, the monthly OBV is mildly bullish, indicating that accumulation could be occurring over a longer horizon. This divergence between weekly and monthly volume trends underscores the cautious optimism among investors, with some accumulation offset by short-term profit-taking.

Dow Theory and Moving Averages

According to Dow Theory, the weekly trend remains mildly bearish, reflecting ongoing caution in the medium term. The monthly trend, however, shows no clear directional trend, highlighting the stock’s current consolidation phase. Daily moving averages, including the 20-day and 50-day, have turned mildly bullish, supporting the recent upward price movement and signalling potential for further gains if momentum sustains.

Comparative Returns and Market Context

Adani Energy Solutions Ltd’s recent returns have lagged behind the broader Sensex index over short and medium terms. Over the past week, the stock declined by 2.65%, compared to the Sensex’s 1.77% fall. The one-month return shows a sharper underperformance, with the stock down 9.09% versus the Sensex’s 3.56% decline. Year-to-date, the stock has dropped 12.69%, significantly underperforming the Sensex’s 3.89% fall.

However, the stock has outperformed over longer horizons. Over the past year, it delivered a 10.49% gain compared to the Sensex’s 8.01%. The five-year return is particularly impressive at 90.69%, surpassing the Sensex’s 65.06%. The ten-year return is extraordinary, with a staggering 2,695.18% gain against the Sensex’s 241.83%, reflecting the company’s strong growth trajectory over the decade despite recent volatility.

Mojo Score and Ratings Update

MarketsMOJO’s latest assessment downgraded Adani Energy Solutions Ltd’s Mojo Grade from Sell to Strong Sell on 8 Jan 2026, reflecting increased caution amid mixed technical signals and recent price underperformance. The Mojo Score stands at a low 28.0, with a Market Cap Grade of 1, indicating limited market capitalisation strength and heightened risk. This downgrade signals that investors should exercise prudence and closely monitor technical developments before committing fresh capital.

Outlook and Investor Considerations

The technical landscape for Adani Energy Solutions Ltd is characterised by a delicate balance between emerging bullish momentum and persistent bearish undertones. The mildly bullish daily moving averages and monthly MACD suggest potential for a recovery phase, but weekly bearish signals from MACD, KST, Bollinger Bands, and OBV caution against over-optimism.

Investors should watch for confirmation of trend strength through sustained volume support and a decisive break above resistance levels near ₹907.80, today’s high. Failure to hold above the 50-day moving average or a renewed decline below ₹877 could signal a return to consolidation or further downside risk.

Given the stock’s strong long-term performance juxtaposed with recent short-term weakness, a measured approach is advisable. Long-term investors may consider accumulating on dips with appropriate risk management, while short-term traders should await clearer signals before initiating positions.

Summary

Adani Energy Solutions Ltd’s technical parameters reveal a stock at a crossroads. While daily and monthly indicators hint at a nascent bullish momentum, weekly signals and volume trends urge caution. The recent upgrade in technical trend from sideways to mildly bullish is encouraging but not yet definitive. Investors should weigh the company’s impressive long-term returns against short-term volatility and the current Strong Sell Mojo Grade before making investment decisions.

Continued monitoring of MACD crossovers, RSI stabilisation, and moving average support levels will be critical in assessing whether the stock can sustain its upward momentum or revert to bearish consolidation.

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