Adani Green Energy Sees Sharp Open Interest Surge Amid Bearish Market Signals

Open Interest and Volume Dynamics

On 23 Jan 2026, Adani Green's open interest (OI) in derivatives rose sharply to 69,654 contracts from 62,878 the previous day, marking an increase of 6,776 contracts or 10.78%. This expansion in OI accompanied a volume of 55,691 contracts, indicating robust trading activity. The futures segment alone accounted for a notional value of approximately ₹81,081.41 lakhs, while options contributed a staggering ₹22,124.31 crores, culminating in a total derivatives value of ₹84,246.92 lakhs.

The underlying stock price closed at ₹858, having touched an intraday low of ₹855, down 5.45% from the previous close. The weighted average price skewed towards the lower end of the day’s range, suggesting selling pressure dominated trading sessions.

Market Positioning and Directional Bets

The surge in open interest amid falling prices typically signals fresh short positions or increased hedging activity by market participants anticipating further downside. Adani Green’s futures and options data corroborate this, with the stock trading below all key moving averages — 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day — underscoring a sustained bearish trend.

Investor participation appears to be waning, as evidenced by a 36.41% decline in delivery volume to 5.21 lakh shares on 22 Jan compared to the five-day average. This drop in delivery volume suggests reduced conviction among long-term holders, potentially accelerating speculative trading in derivatives.

Comparative Performance and Sector Context

Adani Green’s 1-day return of -5.08% significantly underperformed the Power sector’s decline of -1.55% and the Sensex’s marginal fall of -0.23%. This relative weakness highlights company-specific pressures amid a broadly negative market environment. The stock’s market capitalisation stands at ₹1,41,393.60 crores, categorising it as a large-cap entity, yet its liquidity remains adequate for sizeable trades, with a 2% threshold of the five-day average traded value supporting trade sizes up to ₹3.98 crores.

Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings

MarketsMOJO assigns Adani Green a Mojo Score of 21.0, reflecting a Strong Sell rating, an upgrade in negativity from its previous Sell grade as of 5 Jan 2026. The Market Cap Grade is rated 1, indicating low favourability relative to peers. This downgrade aligns with the deteriorating technical and fundamental indicators, signalling caution for investors considering fresh exposure.

Technical Indicators and Moving Averages

The stock’s position below all major moving averages confirms a bearish technical setup. The 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages act as resistance levels, with the current price failing to breach any of these thresholds. This pattern suggests that short-term rallies may face selling pressure, and the prevailing downtrend could persist unless significant positive triggers emerge.

Implications of Rising Open Interest

The increase in open interest alongside declining prices often indicates that new short positions are being established rather than existing longs unwinding. This dynamic points to a growing bearish consensus among derivatives traders. Additionally, the substantial notional value in options contracts hints at complex hedging strategies or directional bets, possibly involving put options to protect downside or speculative short calls.

Investor Sentiment and Delivery Volumes

The sharp fall in delivery volumes by over one-third compared to the recent average suggests that long-term investors are either exiting or refraining from fresh commitments. This reduced participation can exacerbate volatility, as speculative traders dominate price discovery. The weighted average price gravitating towards the day’s low further confirms selling dominance.

Outlook and Investor Considerations

Given the current technical weakness, declining investor participation, and a strong increase in open interest signalling bearish positioning, Adani Green Energy faces near-term headwinds. The stock’s underperformance relative to its sector and benchmark indices further emphasises the cautious stance investors should adopt.

While the company operates in the promising renewable energy sector, the present market signals suggest that downside risks outweigh immediate upside potential. Investors should closely monitor derivatives activity, price action around key moving averages, and delivery volumes for signs of trend reversal or further deterioration.

For those seeking exposure to the power sector, evaluating alternative stocks with stronger fundamentals and momentum may be prudent, as highlighted by recent multi-parameter analyses.

Summary

Adani Green Energy Ltd’s derivatives market activity reveals a significant surge in open interest by 10.78%, coupled with a 5.45% intraday price decline and falling delivery volumes. The stock trades below all major moving averages and carries a Strong Sell Mojo Grade, reflecting deteriorating technical and fundamental conditions. Market participants appear to be increasing bearish bets, with fresh short positions likely driving the open interest expansion. Investors should exercise caution and consider alternative opportunities within the power sector until clearer signs of recovery emerge.

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