Adani Ports Sees Sharp Open Interest Surge Amid Mixed Market Signals

Open Interest and Volume Dynamics

On 23 January 2026, Adani Ports recorded an open interest (OI) of 97,811 contracts, up from 87,541 the previous day, marking an increase of 10,270 contracts or 11.73%. This rise in OI is significant given the stock’s volume of 69,642 contracts traded on the same day. The futures segment alone accounted for a value of approximately ₹1,34,655 lakhs, while options contributed a staggering ₹32,841 crore in notional value, underscoring the derivatives market’s substantial engagement with this large-cap transport infrastructure stock.

The total derivatives value stood at ₹1,36,922 lakhs, reflecting robust liquidity and active participation from institutional and retail investors alike. The underlying stock price closed at ₹1,378, having touched an intraday low of ₹1,373.7, down 2.86% on the day. This price movement contrasts with the rising open interest, suggesting divergent views on the stock’s near-term direction.

Market Positioning and Sentiment

The increase in open interest amid a price decline often indicates fresh short positions being initiated or existing shorts being added to, signalling bearish bets. However, the sizeable volume and elevated option values also point to complex hedging strategies and potential directional plays by sophisticated market participants.

Adani Ports has underperformed its sector, with the transport infrastructure segment falling 2.52% on the day, while the stock itself declined 2.26%. The Sensex, by comparison, was relatively stable, down just 0.23%. This relative weakness in Adani Ports, combined with the derivatives activity, suggests that traders are positioning for further downside or volatility in the near term.

Adding to this, the stock is trading below all key moving averages — 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day — indicating a sustained downtrend. The recent trend reversal after two consecutive days of gains further supports a cautious outlook among investors.

Delivery volumes have risen modestly, with 8.71 lakh shares delivered on 22 January, a 3.01% increase over the five-day average. This uptick in delivery volume suggests that some investors are accumulating shares at lower levels, possibly anticipating a longer-term recovery despite short-term pressures.

Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings

Adani Ports currently holds a Mojo Score of 57.0, placing it in the 'Hold' category, an upgrade from its previous 'Sell' rating as of 8 September 2025. This shift reflects a tempered optimism among analysts, recognising the stock’s large-cap status with a market capitalisation of ₹3,18,453.23 crore, but also acknowledging the recent price weakness and technical challenges.

The market cap grade of 1 indicates the stock’s significant size and liquidity, making it a key player within the transport infrastructure sector. However, the downgrade in short-term momentum and the stock’s failure to sustain above critical moving averages suggest that investors should exercise caution and closely monitor developments.

Sectoral and Broader Market Context

The transport infrastructure sector has faced headwinds recently, with the port sub-sector declining 2.52% on the day. This sectoral weakness is partly attributable to global trade uncertainties and domestic economic factors impacting cargo volumes and port utilisation rates.

Adani Ports, as a leading port operator, is naturally sensitive to these macroeconomic variables. The derivatives market activity, particularly the surge in open interest, may be reflecting hedging against these risks or speculative positioning anticipating volatility ahead.

Investors should also note the stock’s liquidity profile, which supports trade sizes up to ₹4.83 crore based on 2% of the five-day average traded value. This liquidity ensures that institutional players can enter or exit positions without significant market impact, which may explain the active derivatives interest.

Implications for Investors

The sharp rise in open interest amid a falling stock price suggests that market participants are positioning for increased volatility or a potential downward correction in Adani Ports shares. This could be driven by concerns over sectoral headwinds, global trade dynamics, or company-specific factors.

However, the increased delivery volumes and the upgraded Mojo Grade to 'Hold' indicate that some investors see value at current levels, possibly anticipating a medium-term recovery once the broader market stabilises.

Investors should carefully analyse the evolving derivatives data, including option open interest and put-call ratios, to gauge the balance between bullish and bearish sentiment. The elevated option notional values hint at complex strategies, including hedging and directional bets, which could lead to sharp price swings in either direction.

Given the stock’s current technical weakness and sectoral challenges, a cautious approach is advisable. Monitoring key support levels around ₹1,370 and resistance near the 5-day moving average will be critical for timing entries or exits.

Conclusion

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd’s recent surge in open interest highlights a significant shift in market positioning amid a backdrop of price weakness and sectoral pressure. While the derivatives market activity points to increased speculative and hedging interest, the mixed signals from price action and delivery volumes suggest a complex outlook.

Investors should remain vigilant, balancing the potential for volatility with the stock’s fundamental strengths as a large-cap leader in transport infrastructure. The upgraded Mojo Grade to 'Hold' reflects this nuanced view, recommending neither aggressive buying nor outright selling at this juncture.

Continued monitoring of open interest trends, volume patterns, and broader market developments will be essential for making informed investment decisions in Adani Ports going forward.

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