Open Interest and Volume Dynamics
The latest data indicates that Adani Ports’ open interest jumped from 87,408 to 1,04,438 contracts, marking an increase of 17,030 contracts or 19.48%. This rise in OI is notable given the concurrent volume of 78,767 contracts traded, which underscores active participation in the derivatives market. The futures value stood at ₹2,28,454.81 lakhs, while the options segment exhibited a substantial notional value of ₹30,498.80 crores, culminating in a total derivatives market value of approximately ₹2,31,167.85 lakhs linked to the stock.
The underlying stock price closed at ₹1,401, having outperformed its sector by 0.26% on the day. It has recorded gains for two consecutive sessions, delivering a cumulative return of 2.71% over this period. Intraday, the stock touched a high of ₹1,421.70, up 3.13%, signalling bullish momentum. Notably, the delivery volume on 21 Jan surged by 54.11% to 10.89 lakh shares compared to the five-day average, indicating rising investor participation in the cash market as well.
Market Positioning and Directional Bets
The sharp increase in open interest alongside rising volumes typically signals fresh capital entering the market, often reflecting new directional bets. In Adani Ports’ case, the 19.48% OI growth suggests that traders are either initiating new positions or adding to existing ones, anticipating further price movement. Given the stock’s recent outperformance and positive price action, it is plausible that the majority of these positions are bullish in nature.
However, the stock’s moving averages present a nuanced picture. While the price remains above the 200-day moving average, it is still below the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day averages. This indicates that despite short-term consolidation or resistance, the long-term trend remains intact, and the recent OI surge could be a precursor to a breakout if momentum sustains.
Liquidity metrics also support active trading, with the stock’s liquidity sufficient to accommodate trade sizes of up to ₹4.58 crore based on 2% of the five-day average traded value. This ensures that institutional and retail investors can execute sizeable trades without significant market impact, further encouraging participation.
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Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings
Adani Ports currently holds a Mojo Score of 57.0, which corresponds to a Mojo Grade of ‘Hold’. This represents an upgrade from its previous ‘Sell’ rating as of 8 Sep 2025, reflecting improved fundamentals and market sentiment. Despite the upgrade, the stock’s Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating it is a large-cap entity with substantial market capitalisation of ₹3,23,383.70 crore.
The upgrade in rating aligns with the recent surge in open interest and price momentum, suggesting that analysts are recognising the stock’s potential for recovery or further gains. However, the ‘Hold’ grade also implies caution, as the stock faces resistance from shorter-term moving averages and broader market conditions.
Sector and Benchmark Comparison
On the day of analysis, Adani Ports delivered a 1.81% return, slightly underperforming the Transport Infrastructure sector’s 2.07% gain but outperforming the Sensex’s modest 0.19% rise. This relative performance highlights the stock’s resilience amid sectoral strength and broader market stability.
Given the transport infrastructure sector’s critical role in India’s economic growth, sustained investor interest in Adani Ports is a positive indicator. The company’s strategic positioning as a key port operator and special economic zone developer underpins its long-term growth prospects.
Implications for Investors
The surge in open interest and volume, coupled with the stock’s recent price gains and upgraded rating, suggests that investors are positioning for a potential upward move. Traders should monitor the stock’s ability to breach short-term moving averages and sustain volume to confirm bullish momentum.
Conversely, the stock’s current ‘Hold’ rating advises prudence, as market volatility or sector-specific headwinds could temper gains. Investors may consider balancing exposure with peer comparisons and alternative opportunities within the transport infrastructure space.
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Conclusion
Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd’s recent open interest surge in derivatives markets signals a notable shift in market positioning, with investors increasingly optimistic about the stock’s near-term prospects. The combination of rising volumes, improved price action, and an upgraded Mojo Grade from ‘Sell’ to ‘Hold’ reflects a cautious but positive outlook.
While the stock remains below several key moving averages, its strong delivery volumes and liquidity support continued investor interest. Market participants should watch for confirmation of sustained momentum and consider the broader sectoral context before making decisive investment moves.
Overall, the data suggests that Adani Ports is attracting renewed attention from traders and investors alike, positioning it as a stock to watch within the transport infrastructure sector in the coming weeks.
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