Adani Ports Sees Sharp Open Interest Surge Signalling Potential Market Shift

Open Interest and Volume Dynamics

The latest data reveals that open interest (OI) for Adani Ports (symbol: ADANIPORTS) rose sharply from 81,372 contracts to 95,241 contracts, an increase of 13,869 contracts or 17.04%. This surge in OI was accompanied by a daily volume of 57,594 contracts, reflecting robust trading activity in the futures and options market. The futures value stood at ₹1,96,177.27 lakhs, while the options segment exhibited an enormous notional value of ₹22,224.46 crores, culminating in a total derivatives value of approximately ₹1,98,002.86 lakhs.

Such a pronounced increase in open interest typically indicates fresh capital entering the market or existing participants expanding their positions. In this case, the rise suggests that traders are actively repositioning themselves, possibly anticipating a directional move in the stock price. However, the stock’s underlying value at ₹1,518 remains 4.47% shy of its 52-week high of ₹1,583.90, indicating that while optimism exists, the stock has yet to break decisively into new highs.

Price and Trend Analysis

Adani Ports’ price action today was largely in line with its sector peers, registering a modest 0.09% gain compared to the sector’s 0.45% and Sensex’s 0.62% advances. Notably, the stock has reversed its recent two-day decline, signalling a potential short-term recovery. Technical indicators show the stock trading above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, which generally reflects a bullish medium- to long-term trend. However, it remains below its 5-day moving average, suggesting some near-term resistance or consolidation.

Investor participation appears to be waning, with delivery volumes on 19 Feb falling sharply by 63.05% to 3.82 lakh shares compared to the five-day average. This decline in delivery volume could imply that traders are increasingly favouring derivatives over outright equity positions, possibly to leverage directional views or hedge existing exposures.

Market Positioning and Directional Bets

The surge in open interest alongside stable price movement points to a nuanced market stance. The increase in OI without a commensurate price breakout often suggests that participants are building positions on both sides of the market, potentially through spread trades or straddle strategies. This behaviour is common when investors anticipate volatility but remain uncertain about the direction.

Given the transport infrastructure sector’s sensitivity to macroeconomic factors such as trade volumes, government policy, and global supply chain dynamics, traders may be positioning for upcoming catalysts. The stock’s large market capitalisation of ₹3,48,957.64 crores and its classification as a large cap make it a preferred vehicle for institutional strategies, which often manifest as increased derivatives activity.

Mojo Score Upgrade and Market Sentiment

MarketsMOJO has upgraded Adani Ports’ Mojo Grade from Sell to Hold as of 3 Feb 2026, reflecting an improved outlook based on recent performance and valuation metrics. The current Mojo Score stands at 64.0, signalling moderate confidence in the stock’s prospects. Despite this upgrade, the Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating that while the company is a large-cap heavyweight, valuation and growth parameters warrant cautious optimism.

Liquidity remains adequate for sizeable trades, with the stock’s average traded value supporting transactions up to ₹5.9 crores based on 2% of the five-day average. This liquidity profile is conducive to active derivatives trading and institutional participation, which aligns with the observed open interest expansion.

Sectoral and Broader Market Context

Within the transport infrastructure sector, Adani Ports’ performance today was inline with peers, suggesting that sectoral factors continue to influence price action. The Sensex’s 0.62% gain indicates a broadly positive market environment, yet the stock’s modest 0.09% rise and falling delivery volumes hint at selective investor caution.

Investors should also consider the stock’s proximity to its 52-week high, as a 4.47% gap leaves room for upside but also potential resistance. The mixed signals from moving averages and volume patterns suggest that a decisive directional move may require a fresh catalyst or macroeconomic development.

Investor Takeaways and Outlook

For investors analysing Adani Ports’ recent derivatives activity, the surge in open interest is a clear sign of increased market engagement and evolving positioning. While the stock’s price has not yet broken out decisively, the elevated OI and volume suggest that traders are preparing for potential volatility or directional moves.

Given the stock’s large-cap status, solid fundamentals, and recent Mojo Grade upgrade, a Hold rating appears justified. However, the falling delivery volumes and mixed technical signals counsel prudence. Investors may consider monitoring upcoming sectoral developments, quarterly results, and macroeconomic indicators that could influence trade volumes and infrastructure demand.

In the derivatives space, the increased open interest could reflect a combination of bullish and bearish bets, including hedging strategies and volatility plays. This complexity underscores the importance of a nuanced approach to position sizing and risk management.

Overall, Adani Ports remains a key player in the transport infrastructure sector with steady fundamentals and active market participation. The current market signals warrant close observation for confirmation of trend direction before committing to aggressive positions.

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