Technical Trend Shift and Moving Averages
After a prolonged period of sideways movement, APSEZ’s technical trend has decisively shifted to bullish. The daily moving averages have turned positive, signalling strengthening upward momentum. The stock’s current price of ₹1,530.90 comfortably exceeds its key moving averages, which often act as dynamic support levels. This alignment suggests that the stock is poised to sustain its upward trajectory in the near term.
Moving averages are crucial in confirming trend direction, and the bullish crossover observed recently indicates that buyers are gaining control. This technical development is particularly important for investors seeking confirmation of a sustained rally rather than a short-lived spike.
MACD and Momentum Indicators
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a nuanced picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD remains mildly bearish, indicating some caution among medium-term traders. However, the monthly MACD has turned bullish, signalling that the longer-term momentum is improving. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings suggests that while short-term volatility may persist, the broader trend favours accumulation and strength.
Complementing the MACD, the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator shows a mild bearish stance weekly but bullish momentum monthly. This mixed signal underscores the importance of monitoring the stock closely over the coming weeks to confirm the sustainability of the rally.
RSI and Bollinger Bands Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently offers no definitive signal on both weekly and monthly charts, hovering in a neutral zone. This neutrality implies that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, providing room for further upward movement without immediate risk of a sharp correction.
Meanwhile, Bollinger Bands have turned bullish on both weekly and monthly timeframes. The stock price is trading near the upper band, indicating strong buying pressure. This technical setup often precedes continued price appreciation, especially when confirmed by other indicators.
Volume and Dow Theory Confirmation
On-Balance Volume (OBV) readings are bullish across weekly and monthly charts, signalling that volume is supporting the price rise. Increasing OBV suggests that institutional investors may be accumulating shares, which is a positive sign for the stock’s medium to long-term prospects.
Dow Theory assessments provide a mildly bullish weekly outlook but a mildly bearish monthly perspective. This mixed view reflects some caution among market participants but does not negate the overall positive momentum building in the stock.
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Comparative Returns and Market Positioning
Adani Ports has outperformed the broader market significantly over multiple time horizons. The stock’s one-week return stands at 12.22%, vastly exceeding the Sensex’s 2.30% gain. Over one month, APSEZ posted a 2.80% return while the Sensex declined by 2.36%, highlighting the stock’s resilience amid broader market weakness.
Year-to-date, the stock has gained 4.18% compared to the Sensex’s negative 1.74%. Over the past year, APSEZ’s return of 40.84% dwarfs the Sensex’s 8.49%, and the long-term performance is even more impressive with a 10-year return of 629.35% versus the Sensex’s 245.70%. These figures underscore the company’s strong growth trajectory and market leadership within the transport infrastructure sector.
Mojo Score Upgrade and Analyst Ratings
Reflecting the improved technical and fundamental outlook, MarketsMOJO has upgraded Adani Ports’ Mojo Grade from Sell to Hold as of 03 Feb 2026, with a Mojo Score of 64.0. This upgrade signals a shift in analyst sentiment, recognising the stock’s enhanced price momentum and improving technical indicators. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating a large-cap status with stable market capitalisation.
Investors should note that while the Hold rating suggests caution, the recent technical upgrades and strong relative performance provide a foundation for potential further gains, especially if the bullish signals on monthly charts consolidate.
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Price Action and Volatility Considerations
On 04 Feb 2026, APSEZ recorded an intraday high of ₹1,537.50 and a low of ₹1,475.00, demonstrating a relatively tight trading range with strong upward bias. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week high of ₹1,548.60 suggests that resistance levels are being tested, and a breakout above this mark could trigger further buying interest.
Volatility remains moderate, supported by bullish Bollinger Bands and rising OBV, which together indicate that price movements are backed by genuine volume rather than speculative spikes. This technical environment favours investors looking for momentum plays with a degree of risk management.
Sector and Industry Context
Operating within the transport infrastructure sector, Adani Ports benefits from structural growth drivers such as increasing trade volumes, government infrastructure initiatives, and expanding port capacities. The sector’s overall health is reflected in the stock’s outperformance relative to the Sensex and its peers.
Given the company’s strategic importance and improving technical profile, APSEZ remains a key stock to watch for investors seeking exposure to India’s infrastructure growth story.
Outlook and Investment Considerations
While the technical indicators present a cautiously optimistic picture, investors should remain vigilant for potential short-term corrections given the mildly bearish weekly MACD and KST signals. The neutral RSI readings also suggest that the stock is not yet overextended, allowing room for further appreciation.
Long-term investors may find the stock’s strong relative returns and upgraded Mojo Grade encouraging, but should consider monitoring volume trends and moving average support levels to confirm sustained momentum.
Summary
Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd has transitioned from a sideways trend to a bullish phase, supported by positive moving averages, bullish Bollinger Bands, and strong volume indicators. The mixed signals from weekly momentum indicators warrant cautious optimism, while the monthly charts suggest a favourable long-term outlook. The stock’s impressive returns relative to the Sensex and recent Mojo Grade upgrade to Hold further reinforce its appeal as a transport infrastructure leader with improving technical momentum.
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