Adani Power Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Signal Bullish Outlook Amid Strong Returns

Price Momentum and Market Performance

Adani Power’s current market price stands at ₹155.20, up from the previous close of ₹143.65, marking a robust intraday high of ₹156.00 and a low of ₹143.10. This surge comes as the stock approaches its 52-week high of ₹182.75, having rebounded strongly from a low of ₹93.23 over the past year. The stock’s recent price momentum is significantly outpacing the broader Sensex benchmark, which has recorded a modest 1.79% return over the past week compared to Adani Power’s impressive 15.09% gain.

Over longer horizons, Adani Power’s returns have been exceptional, with a 53.19% gain year-to-date and a staggering 1,358.65% increase over five years, dwarfing the Sensex’s 65.60% return in the same period. This outperformance highlights the stock’s resilience and growing investor confidence despite sectoral headwinds.

Technical Indicator Analysis

The technical landscape for Adani Power reveals a nuanced picture. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed signal: the weekly MACD remains mildly bearish, indicating some short-term caution, while the monthly MACD has turned bullish, suggesting a strengthening longer-term momentum. This divergence implies that while short-term traders may face volatility, the medium to long-term trend is gaining upward traction.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no definitive signal, hovering in neutral territory. This suggests the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, providing room for further upward movement without immediate risk of a technical correction.

Bollinger Bands reinforce the bullish narrative, with both weekly and monthly readings indicating upward price pressure and volatility expansion. This technical setup often precedes sustained price rallies as the stock breaks out of previous trading ranges.

Moving Averages and Trend Confirmation

Daily moving averages have turned bullish, with the stock price comfortably trading above key averages such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This crossover is a classic technical signal that often attracts momentum investors and confirms a positive trend shift.

The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator presents a split view: mildly bearish on the weekly timeframe but bullish on the monthly scale. This aligns with the MACD’s mixed signals and suggests that while short-term momentum may face intermittent pullbacks, the broader trend remains constructive.

Dow Theory assessments further support a cautiously optimistic outlook, with both weekly and monthly trends classified as mildly bullish. This theory, which analyses market phases through price action and volume, indicates that the stock is in the early stages of a confirmed uptrend.

Volume and On-Balance Volume (OBV) Insights

Volume analysis via the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator shows a mildly bearish signal on the weekly chart, implying that recent price gains may not yet be fully supported by strong buying volume. However, the monthly OBV trend remains neutral, suggesting that accumulation is steady but not yet accelerating aggressively. Investors should monitor volume trends closely to confirm the sustainability of the current price rally.

Mojo Score and Rating Upgrade

Reflecting these technical improvements, Adani Power’s MarketsMOJO score has risen to 50.0, earning a Mojo Grade upgrade from Sell to Hold as of 04 Feb 2026. This upgrade signals a shift in analyst sentiment, recognising the stock’s improving technical profile and potential for further gains. Despite this, the Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating that the company is still relatively small in market capitalisation terms, which may contribute to higher volatility.

Investors should note that while the Hold rating suggests caution, it also acknowledges the stock’s recent positive momentum and the possibility of a sustained rally if technical indicators continue to improve.

Comparative Sector and Market Context

Within the power sector, Adani Power’s technical momentum contrasts favourably against peers, many of which have struggled to break out of consolidation phases. The stock’s strong weekly and monthly Bollinger Band signals and bullish moving averages position it as a potential leader in the sector’s recovery.

Comparing returns to the Sensex further emphasises Adani Power’s outperformance. Over the past year, the stock has delivered a 53.19% return versus the Sensex’s 6.66%, and over a decade, the stock’s return of 2,979.37% dwarfs the benchmark’s 244.38%. This long-term outperformance underscores the company’s growth trajectory and investor appeal despite cyclical challenges in the power industry.

Risks and Considerations

While technical indicators are increasingly positive, investors should remain mindful of the mildly bearish weekly MACD and OBV signals, which suggest that short-term volatility and profit-taking could occur. The neutral RSI readings also imply that the stock is not yet in an overbought condition, but this could change rapidly if momentum accelerates.

Additionally, the company’s relatively low Market Cap Grade signals potential liquidity constraints and higher susceptibility to market swings. Investors should balance the bullish technical outlook with fundamental analysis and sectoral developments, particularly regulatory changes and commodity price fluctuations that impact power generation costs.

Outlook and Investor Takeaways

Adani Power Ltd’s recent technical parameter changes indicate a strengthening bullish momentum, supported by key indicators such as daily moving averages and monthly MACD. The stock’s strong price performance relative to the Sensex and sector peers reinforces its potential as a growth candidate within the power industry.

However, the mixed signals from weekly momentum indicators and volume-based measures counsel prudence. Investors should watch for confirmation of volume support and sustained price action above key resistance levels before committing significant capital.

Overall, the upgrade to a Hold rating by MarketsMOJO reflects a balanced view: the stock is no longer a sell but requires careful monitoring as it navigates the evolving technical landscape. For those with a medium to long-term horizon, Adani Power presents an intriguing opportunity to capitalise on improving momentum within a vital sector of the Indian economy.

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