Price Movement and Market Context
On 4 February 2026, Adani Total Gas Ltd closed at ₹544.20, marking a significant 4.89% increase from the previous close of ₹518.85. The stock traded within a range of ₹537.65 to ₹558.10 during the session, demonstrating intraday volatility. However, the current price remains well below its 52-week high of ₹797.40, indicating that the stock has yet to regain its previous peak levels. The 52-week low stands at ₹507.00, placing the current price closer to the lower end of its annual trading range.
Comparatively, the stock has outperformed the Sensex over the past week, delivering a 3.56% return against the benchmark’s 2.30%. Yet, longer-term returns paint a less favourable picture: a 1-month return of -7.44% versus Sensex’s -2.36%, and a year-to-date decline of -4.02% compared to the Sensex’s -1.74%. Over the past year, Adani Total Gas has underperformed significantly with a -12.2% return, while the Sensex gained 8.49%. The three-year performance gap is even more pronounced, with the stock down 66.53% against a 37.63% rise in the Sensex.
Technical Trend Analysis
The technical trend for Adani Total Gas has shifted from bearish to mildly bearish, reflecting a tentative improvement but still signalling caution. The daily moving averages remain bearish, indicating that short-term momentum is weak and the stock price is trading below key average levels. This suggests that despite recent gains, the stock has not yet established a sustainable upward trend.
The weekly MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) remains bearish, signalling that momentum is still tilted towards sellers in the medium term. Conversely, the monthly MACD has turned mildly bullish, hinting at a potential longer-term recovery if buying interest sustains. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings underscores the mixed signals investors face.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) readings on both weekly and monthly charts currently show no clear signal, hovering in neutral zones without indicating overbought or oversold conditions. This suggests that the stock is not exhibiting extreme momentum in either direction, which may lead to sideways price action in the near term.
Bollinger Bands and KST Indicators
Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are mildly bearish, with the stock price approaching the upper band but failing to break decisively above it. On the monthly scale, the bands indicate sideways movement, reflecting a consolidation phase without clear directional bias. This pattern suggests that volatility remains contained but the stock has yet to establish a breakout.
The KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator aligns with the MACD readings, showing bearish momentum on the weekly chart but a mildly bullish stance on the monthly timeframe. This further reinforces the notion of short-term weakness amid potential longer-term strength.
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Volume and Dow Theory Insights
On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicators show no clear trend on both weekly and monthly charts, indicating that volume is not confirming price movements decisively. This lack of volume confirmation often signals caution, as price moves without strong backing from trading activity may not be sustainable.
Dow Theory analysis presents a mildly bullish signal on the weekly timeframe, suggesting that the stock may be forming higher highs and higher lows in the short term. However, the monthly Dow Theory reading shows no clear trend, reflecting uncertainty in the broader market context for this stock.
Mojo Score and Ratings Update
Adani Total Gas currently holds a Mojo Score of 48.0, which corresponds to a Sell grade. This represents a downgrade from a previous Buy rating as of 27 January 2023. The Market Cap Grade stands at 2, indicating a relatively modest market capitalisation compared to larger peers in the gas sector. The downgrade reflects the deteriorating technical and fundamental outlook, signalling investors to exercise caution.
Given the mixed technical signals and underperformance relative to the Sensex over multiple timeframes, the current rating suggests that the stock is not favourably positioned for aggressive buying. Investors should weigh the potential for short-term rallies against the prevailing bearish momentum and structural challenges.
Sector and Industry Context
Operating within the gas sector, Adani Total Gas faces sector-specific headwinds including regulatory pressures, fluctuating commodity prices, and evolving energy demand patterns. While the sector has shown resilience in certain pockets, the stock’s technical indicators imply that it has yet to capitalise fully on any sectoral tailwinds.
Comparing Adani Total Gas to its industry peers reveals that the stock’s momentum and technical health lag behind some competitors who have demonstrated stronger moving average alignments and more bullish MACD profiles. This relative weakness may prompt investors to consider alternative gas sector stocks with more robust technical setups.
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Investor Takeaway and Outlook
Adani Total Gas Ltd’s recent price momentum shift and mixed technical signals present a challenging environment for investors. The stock’s daily moving averages and weekly MACD remain bearish, while monthly indicators offer a glimmer of mild bullishness. This divergence suggests that while short-term caution is warranted, there may be a foundation for recovery if positive catalysts emerge.
Investors should monitor key technical levels closely, particularly the 52-week low of ₹507.00 as a support zone and the 52-week high of ₹797.40 as a resistance benchmark. Sustained trading above the daily moving averages and a bullish crossover in weekly MACD would be necessary to confirm a more robust uptrend.
Given the current Mojo Grade of Sell and the stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex over medium and long-term periods, a conservative approach is advisable. Portfolio managers and traders may consider waiting for clearer confirmation of trend reversal or exploring alternative gas sector stocks with stronger technical momentum.
Overall, Adani Total Gas Ltd remains a stock to watch closely, with technical indicators signalling a tentative shift but not yet a definitive turnaround. Investors should balance the potential for short-term gains against the prevailing bearish undertones and broader market conditions.
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