Agarwal Industrial Corporation Ltd Faces Bearish Momentum Amid Technical Downgrade

Technical Momentum and Indicator Analysis

The stock closed at ₹705.25 on 09 Feb 2026, down 2.50% from the previous close of ₹723.35. This decline is consistent with a broader technical trend change from mildly bearish to bearish. The daily moving averages have turned decisively bearish, indicating sustained downward pressure on the stock price in the short term.

Examining the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), the weekly chart remains mildly bullish, suggesting some short-term positive momentum. However, the monthly MACD has deteriorated into bearish territory, signalling that longer-term momentum is weakening. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings reflects uncertainty and potential volatility ahead.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes currently shows no clear signal, hovering in neutral zones. This lack of directional RSI momentum suggests the stock is neither oversold nor overbought, but the absence of a bullish RSI signal adds to the cautious outlook.

Bollinger Bands on weekly and monthly charts are firmly bearish, with the stock price trending near the lower band. This positioning often indicates increased selling pressure and heightened volatility, reinforcing the bearish technical stance.

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, a momentum oscillator, has turned bearish on both weekly and monthly charts, further confirming the downward momentum. Similarly, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator is mildly bearish on the weekly scale, reflecting selling volume dominance, though the monthly OBV shows no clear trend.

Dow Theory assessments present a mixed picture: mildly bullish on the weekly timeframe but mildly bearish monthly, underscoring the conflicting signals between short-term resilience and longer-term weakness.

Price Performance in Context

Over the past week, Agarwal Industrial Corporation Ltd’s stock has declined by 3.43%, contrasting with a 1.59% gain in the Sensex index. This underperformance extends over longer periods, with the stock down 0.84% year-to-date against a 1.92% decline in the Sensex, and a stark 36.10% drop over the last year compared to a 7.07% gain in the benchmark.

Despite recent setbacks, the company’s longer-term returns remain impressive, with a five-year gain of 409.02% significantly outpacing the Sensex’s 64.75% and a ten-year return of 370.79% versus the Sensex’s 239.52%. This disparity highlights the stock’s historical growth potential but also emphasises the current phase of technical weakness and investor caution.

The 52-week price range of ₹647.70 to ₹1,129.70 illustrates considerable volatility, with the current price near the lower end of this spectrum, reinforcing the bearish technical narrative.

Mojo Score and Grade Implications

Agarwal Industrial Corporation Ltd’s Mojo Score currently stands at 29.0, reflecting a Strong Sell rating. This represents a downgrade from the previous Sell grade on 06 Feb 2026, signalling deteriorating fundamentals and technical outlook. The Market Cap Grade is rated 3, indicating a mid-tier market capitalisation relative to peers in the petrochemicals sector.

The Strong Sell Mojo Grade is consistent with the bearish technical indicators and recent price declines, suggesting investors should exercise caution. The downgrade reflects a combination of weakening momentum, negative volume trends, and the stock’s failure to sustain higher price levels.

Sector and Industry Context

Within the petrochemicals sector, Agarwal Industrial Corporation Ltd faces headwinds from both macroeconomic factors and sector-specific challenges. The petrochemicals industry has experienced volatility due to fluctuating raw material costs and global demand uncertainties. Compared to sector peers, Agarwal Industrial’s technical deterioration is more pronounced, which may impact its relative attractiveness to investors seeking stability in this cyclical industry.

Investors should weigh the company’s historical outperformance against the current technical signals and sector dynamics before making investment decisions.

Investor Takeaways and Outlook

Technical analysis of Agarwal Industrial Corporation Ltd reveals a clear shift towards bearish momentum, with multiple indicators aligning to suggest further downside risk. The daily moving averages and monthly MACD have deteriorated, while Bollinger Bands and KST indicators confirm selling pressure. The absence of strong RSI signals implies limited immediate reversal potential.

Given the stock’s recent underperformance relative to the Sensex and the downgrade to a Strong Sell Mojo Grade, investors should approach with caution. While the company’s long-term returns remain robust, the current technical environment and sector challenges warrant a conservative stance.

For those holding positions, monitoring key support levels near the 52-week low of ₹647.70 is crucial. A sustained break below this level could accelerate declines. Conversely, any improvement in volume trends or a bullish MACD crossover on monthly charts may signal a potential recovery phase, though such signals are not yet evident.

Overall, the technical landscape suggests that Agarwal Industrial Corporation Ltd is navigating a challenging period, and investors should consider risk management strategies accordingly.

Summary of Technical Ratings

Weekly Indicators: MACD mildly bullish, Bollinger Bands bearish, KST bearish, Dow Theory mildly bullish, OBV mildly bearish.

Monthly Indicators: MACD bearish, Bollinger Bands bearish, KST bearish, Dow Theory mildly bearish, OBV no trend.

Daily Moving Averages: Bearish.

Mojo Score: 29.0 (Strong Sell), downgraded from Sell on 06 Feb 2026.

Investors should integrate these technical insights with fundamental analysis and sector outlooks to make informed decisions.

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