Stock Performance and Market Context
On the day the new low was recorded, AGI Greenpac’s share price touched an intraday low of Rs.590.1, representing a 3.7% drop from the previous close. The stock has been on a downward trajectory for three consecutive sessions, cumulatively losing 5.35% over this period. This decline outpaced the packaging sector’s performance, with AGI Greenpac underperforming the sector by 0.55% on the day.
AGI Greenpac is currently trading below all key moving averages, including the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages, signalling sustained bearish momentum. This technical positioning contrasts with the broader market, where the Sensex, despite a negative close, remains 3.41% below its 52-week high of 86,159.02. The Sensex itself fell by 443.61 points (-0.6%) on the day, after opening flat.
Over the past year, AGI Greenpac’s stock has declined by 22.18%, a stark contrast to the Sensex’s 6.44% gain and the BSE500’s 7.09% return. The stock’s 52-week high was Rs.1,008.3, highlighting the extent of the recent correction.
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Financial Metrics and Recent Results
AGI Greenpac’s recent quarterly results have been largely flat, contributing to the subdued market sentiment. The company reported a Profit Before Tax (PBT) less other income of Rs.95.94 crores, reflecting a decline of 8.7% compared to previous quarters. Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter stood at Rs.11.04, marking the lowest level in recent periods.
Cash and cash equivalents at the half-year mark were reported at Rs.15.41 crores, the lowest recorded in recent financial disclosures. This liquidity position may be a factor in investor caution, despite the company maintaining a relatively low average debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39 times, indicating a conservative capital structure.
Operating profit has shown a healthy long-term growth rate of 30.82% annually, suggesting underlying business strength despite recent price pressures. Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) remains attractive at 16.7%, and the enterprise value to capital employed ratio is a modest 1.7, indicating valuation levels below some peers.
Sector Position and Market Capitalisation
With a market capitalisation of Rs.3,964 crores, AGI Greenpac is the second largest company in the packaging sector, trailing only Garware Hi Tech. The company accounts for 15.04% of the sector’s total market cap and contributes 8.86% of the industry’s annual sales, which total Rs.2,627.76 crores. Promoters remain the majority shareholders, maintaining significant control over the company’s strategic direction.
Despite the recent share price decline, AGI Greenpac’s profits have increased by 14.7% over the past year, resulting in a price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 0.8. This figure suggests that the stock is trading at a discount relative to its earnings growth, although this has not translated into positive price momentum.
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Summary of Key Factors Affecting the Stock
The stock’s decline to Rs.590.1 represents a significant technical low, influenced by a combination of subdued quarterly earnings, reduced cash reserves, and a broader market environment that has seen the Sensex retreat from recent highs. The packaging sector itself has faced mixed performance, with AGI Greenpac’s relative underperformance highlighting company-specific pressures.
While the company’s financial fundamentals such as ROCE, operating profit growth, and low leverage remain positive, these have not been sufficient to offset the impact of recent earnings softness and market sentiment. The stock’s valuation metrics indicate a discount relative to peers, but this has coincided with a sustained downtrend in share price.
AGI Greenpac’s position as a major player in the packaging sector, with a sizeable market cap and sales contribution, underscores its importance within the industry. However, the current share price level reflects investor caution amid the recent performance trends and market volatility.
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