AGI Greenpac Ltd Valuation Shifts to Very Attractive Amid Market Pressure

Valuation Metrics Show Marked Improvement

AGI Greenpac currently trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.29, a level that is considerably lower than many of its packaging peers. For context, Garware Hi Tech, a competitor in the same sector, commands a P/E of 21.41, while Uflex, another peer, trades at 11.12. This places AGI Greenpac comfortably within the “very attractive” valuation category, as per the latest MarketsMOJO grading system, which recently downgraded the company’s overall mojo grade from Buy to Hold on 23 Oct 2025, reflecting a more cautious stance despite the valuation appeal.

The price-to-book value (P/BV) ratio stands at 1.95, indicating that the stock is trading at just under twice its book value, a reasonable premium given the company’s return on capital employed (ROCE) of 16.66% and return on equity (ROE) of 15.88%. These profitability metrics underscore the company’s efficient capital utilisation and solid earnings generation capacity.

Enterprise Value Multiples Reinforce Attractiveness

Further supporting the valuation case, AGI Greenpac’s enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is 7.76, which is lower than the sector average and peers such as TCPL Packaging (11.31) and Garware Hi Tech (14.52). This suggests that the company is trading at a discount relative to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, a key indicator of operational profitability.

The EV to EBIT ratio of 10.76 and EV to capital employed of 1.79 also point to a favourable valuation, signalling that investors are paying a modest premium for the company’s operating earnings and capital base. The EV to sales ratio of 1.80 further confirms that the stock is reasonably priced relative to its revenue generation.

PEG Ratio and Dividend Yield Add to the Investment Appeal

AGI Greenpac’s PEG ratio, which adjusts the P/E ratio for earnings growth, is an exceptionally low 0.39, indicating that the stock is undervalued relative to its expected growth trajectory. This contrasts sharply with Garware Hi Tech’s PEG of 10.00, which suggests overvaluation relative to growth prospects.

The dividend yield of 1.05% provides a modest income stream, complementing the company’s growth potential and making it an attractive proposition for income-oriented investors within the packaging sector.

Price Performance and Market Context

AGI Greenpac’s stock price closed at ₹668.75 on 19 Jan 2026, down 1.91% from the previous close of ₹681.75. The stock’s 52-week high was ₹1,092.65, while the low was ₹600.00, indicating a wide trading range over the past year. The recent price weakness contrasts with the company’s strong long-term returns, with a five-year return of 477.75% significantly outperforming the Sensex’s 70.43% over the same period.

However, the stock has underperformed in the short term, with a year-to-date return of -10.71% compared to the Sensex’s -1.94%, and a one-year return of -33.56% versus the Sensex’s positive 8.47%. This divergence may reflect sector-specific pressures or broader market volatility impacting packaging stocks.

Peer Comparison Highlights Relative Value

Within the packaging sector, AGI Greenpac’s valuation stands out as very attractive when compared to peers. Uflex and Cosmo First also share a “very attractive” valuation status, with P/E ratios of 11.12 and 11.49 respectively, and EV/EBITDA multiples below 10. In contrast, Garware Hi Tech and TCPL Packaging are rated as expensive or fair, with P/E ratios exceeding 20 and EV/EBITDA multiples above 11.

Riskier names such as JMG Corporation and Pithampur Poly trade at lower multiples but carry concerns due to loss-making status or other operational risks, underscoring AGI Greenpac’s relative stability and quality within the sector.

Mojo Score and Grade Reflect Balanced Outlook

AGI Greenpac’s current Mojo Score of 53.0 and Mojo Grade of Hold reflect a tempered outlook by MarketsMOJO analysts. The downgrade from Buy to Hold on 23 Oct 2025 signals caution despite the improved valuation metrics, likely due to recent price volatility and sector headwinds. The Market Cap Grade of 3 indicates a mid-sized market capitalisation, which may influence liquidity and investor interest.

Investment Implications and Outlook

The shift in AGI Greenpac’s valuation parameters to a very attractive level presents a compelling entry point for investors seeking exposure to the packaging sector. The company’s robust ROCE and ROE metrics, combined with a low PEG ratio, suggest that earnings growth is undervalued by the market.

However, investors should weigh the recent price underperformance and the downgrade to a Hold rating, which may reflect near-term uncertainties or sector-specific challenges. The stock’s wide trading range over the past year also indicates volatility that may persist in the short term.

Long-term investors with a focus on quality and valuation may find AGI Greenpac’s current price levels appealing, especially given its outperformance over five and ten years relative to the Sensex. Monitoring sector trends and peer valuations will be crucial to assess whether the stock can sustain its improved valuation status.

Conclusion

AGI Greenpac Ltd’s valuation has improved significantly, moving into a very attractive zone relative to its historical averages and peer group. While the stock faces short-term headwinds reflected in its Hold rating and recent price declines, its strong fundamentals and reasonable multiples offer a favourable risk-reward profile for investors with a medium to long-term horizon. Careful consideration of sector dynamics and peer comparisons remains essential for informed decision-making.

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