Alembic Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Bearish Signals

Technical Momentum Shifts to Bearish Territory

Recent technical analysis reveals that Alembic Ltd’s price momentum has shifted decisively from mildly bearish to outright bearish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, a widely respected momentum oscillator, is bearish on both weekly and monthly timeframes, signalling sustained downward pressure. The daily moving averages also confirm this negative trend, with the stock price currently trading below key averages, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), however, remains neutral on weekly and monthly charts, indicating no immediate oversold or overbought conditions. This suggests that while momentum is negative, there is no extreme sentiment driving the stock either way at present.

Bollinger Bands, which measure volatility and potential price reversals, show a bearish stance weekly and mildly bearish monthly. The stock price is hovering near the lower band on the weekly chart, indicating increased selling pressure but also hinting at potential support zones.

Additional Technical Indicators Confirm Downtrend

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, which aggregates multiple rate-of-change measures, is bearish on both weekly and monthly scales, further validating the downtrend. Meanwhile, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator presents a mixed picture: mildly bearish weekly but bullish monthly, suggesting that while recent trading volumes have favoured sellers, longer-term accumulation by investors may still be occurring.

Dow Theory analysis offers a slight divergence, with a mildly bullish weekly signal but no clear trend monthly. This discrepancy highlights the complexity of the current market environment for Alembic Ltd, where short-term technicals are weak but some underlying support may exist.

Price Performance and Market Context

On 16 Feb 2026, Alembic Ltd closed at ₹95.57, down 2.96% from the previous close of ₹98.49. The stock’s intraday range was ₹94.50 to ₹96.81, reflecting volatility amid bearish sentiment. The 52-week high stands at ₹125.70, while the low is ₹85.55, placing the current price closer to the lower end of its annual range.

Comparing returns with the benchmark Sensex reveals underperformance across multiple periods. Over the past week, Alembic declined 1.62% versus the Sensex’s 1.14% fall. The one-month return is down 2.53%, nearly double the Sensex’s 1.20% drop. Year-to-date, the stock has lost 5.43%, lagging behind the Sensex’s 3.04% decline. Over one year, Alembic’s return is negative 7.88%, contrasting sharply with the Sensex’s positive 8.52% gain.

Longer-term returns show a mixed picture: a three-year gain of 40.34% slightly outpaces the Sensex’s 36.73%, but five-year returns lag significantly at negative 5.52% compared to the Sensex’s robust 60.30%. Over a decade, Alembic has delivered 181.50% growth, trailing the Sensex’s 259.46%.

Mojo Score and Grade Reflect Caution

Alembic Ltd’s current Mojo Score stands at 30.0, categorised as a Sell rating, a downgrade from its previous Hold grade recorded on 07 Jul 2025. This downgrade reflects the deteriorating technical landscape and the company’s relative underperformance within the Realty sector. The Market Cap Grade is 3, indicating a mid-tier market capitalisation that may limit liquidity and institutional interest compared to larger peers.

The downgrade is consistent with the bearish technical signals and the stock’s recent price weakness. Investors should be wary of further downside risk, especially given the stock’s failure to sustain levels above its 52-week mid-range and the negative momentum across key indicators.

Sector and Industry Considerations

Within the Realty sector, Alembic Ltd faces headwinds from broader market volatility and sector-specific challenges such as regulatory changes and fluctuating demand for real estate assets. The bearish technical trend aligns with sector-wide pressures, although some Realty stocks have shown resilience in recent months.

Investors should monitor sector dynamics closely, as any recovery in Realty fundamentals could provide a catalyst for Alembic Ltd. However, the current technical and fundamental signals suggest caution.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

Given the comprehensive bearish signals from MACD, moving averages, KST, and Bollinger Bands, alongside the stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex, Alembic Ltd currently presents a cautious investment proposition. The absence of strong RSI signals suggests that the stock is not yet oversold, implying potential for further downside before a meaningful reversal.

Long-term investors may find some solace in the positive monthly OBV and the three-year return outperforming the benchmark, but the five-year and one-year returns highlight significant challenges. The downgrade to a Sell rating by MarketsMOJO reflects these concerns and advises prudence.

Market participants should watch for any shifts in technical indicators, particularly a MACD crossover or RSI movement into oversold territory, which could signal a potential buying opportunity. Until then, the prevailing trend remains bearish, and risk-averse investors may prefer to reduce exposure or explore alternative Realty stocks with stronger technical and fundamental profiles.

Conclusion

Alembic Ltd’s recent technical deterioration and price momentum shift underscore the challenges facing the stock in the current market environment. The downgrade in Mojo Grade to Sell, combined with bearish signals across multiple technical indicators and relative underperformance versus the Sensex, suggests that investors should approach the stock with caution. While some longer-term metrics remain positive, the near-term outlook is dominated by negative momentum and sector headwinds.

Monitoring technical developments and sector trends will be crucial for investors seeking to navigate Alembic Ltd’s evolving landscape.

Upgrade at special rates, valid only for the next few days. Claim Your Special Rate →