Current Price Movement and Market Context
The stock closed at ₹102.24 on 15 Dec 2025, marking a day change of 3.18% from the previous close of ₹99.09. The intraday range was relatively narrow, with a low of ₹98.99 and a high of ₹102.25, indicating some consolidation near the current price level. Over the past week, Alembic's stock price recorded a return of 1.25%, outperforming the Sensex which declined by 0.52% during the same period. The one-month return stands at 2.48%, again surpassing the Sensex's 0.95% gain. However, the year-to-date (YTD) return shows a decline of 22.69%, contrasting with the Sensex's positive 9.12% return, highlighting sector-specific challenges or company-specific factors impacting performance.
Technical Trend and Momentum Indicators
Recent assessment changes indicate a shift in Alembic's technical trend from bearish to mildly bearish. This subtle adjustment suggests that while the stock remains under pressure, some stabilisation or tentative recovery attempts are underway. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed picture: the weekly MACD is mildly bullish, signalling some upward momentum in the short term, whereas the monthly MACD remains mildly bearish, reflecting longer-term caution among investors.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also offers contrasting signals. On a weekly basis, the RSI does not currently provide a definitive signal, implying a neutral momentum in the short term. Conversely, the monthly RSI is bullish, suggesting that over a longer horizon, the stock may be gaining strength or is less oversold than before. This divergence between weekly and monthly RSI readings points to a potential shift in momentum that investors should monitor closely.
Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands Analysis
Daily moving averages for Alembic are mildly bearish, indicating that the stock price is trading below key short-term averages, which may act as resistance levels. This aligns with the Bollinger Bands analysis, where both weekly and monthly bands are mildly bearish. The stock price is likely near the lower band, which can sometimes signal oversold conditions but also reflects ongoing downward pressure. Investors often watch for price action near these bands to anticipate potential reversals or continuation of trends.
Additional Technical Signals: KST, Dow Theory, and OBV
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator shows a mildly bullish signal on the weekly chart, suggesting some positive momentum in the near term. However, the monthly KST remains mildly bearish, consistent with other longer-term indicators. Dow Theory analysis also aligns with this pattern, showing mildly bearish trends on both weekly and monthly timeframes, reinforcing the cautious stance for longer-term investors.
On-Balance Volume (OBV), a volume-based indicator, shows no clear trend on the weekly chart but is mildly bearish on the monthly chart. This suggests that volume flows have not strongly supported price advances recently, which may limit the sustainability of any short-term rallies.
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Long-Term Performance and Market Capitalisation
Examining Alembic's returns over extended periods reveals a mixed performance relative to the broader market. Over three years, the stock has delivered a 42.99% return, slightly ahead of the Sensex's 37.24% gain, indicating some resilience in the medium term. However, over five years, Alembic's return of 2.09% lags significantly behind the Sensex's 84.97%, and over ten years, the stock's 144.01% return trails the Sensex's 240.47%. These figures suggest that while Alembic has shown pockets of strength, it has not consistently matched the broader market's growth trajectory.
52-Week Price Range and Volatility
The stock's 52-week high stands at ₹153.45, while the low is ₹85.55, indicating a wide trading range and notable volatility within the past year. The current price of ₹102.24 is closer to the lower end of this range, which may reflect prevailing market sentiment or sector-specific headwinds. This positioning within the range is important for investors assessing risk and potential entry points.
Sector and Industry Context
Alembic operates within the Realty industry and sector, which has experienced varied performance amid macroeconomic factors such as interest rate fluctuations, regulatory changes, and demand-supply dynamics. The recent mild bearish technical signals on longer timeframes may be influenced by these broader sectoral challenges. However, short-term bullish signals on weekly momentum indicators suggest that some investors are anticipating a stabilisation or recovery phase.
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Investor Considerations and Outlook
Investors analysing Alembic should weigh the contrasting technical signals carefully. The mildly bullish weekly MACD and KST indicators, alongside a bullish monthly RSI, suggest some underlying strength and potential for short-term price support. However, the mildly bearish monthly MACD, Bollinger Bands, Dow Theory signals, and moving averages counsel caution regarding the sustainability of any upward moves.
Given the stock's current position near the lower end of its 52-week range and the mixed momentum signals, a cautious approach may be warranted. Monitoring volume trends and price action around key moving averages will be critical to identifying any meaningful shifts in trend. Additionally, broader sectoral developments and macroeconomic factors impacting the Realty industry should be considered as part of a comprehensive investment analysis.
Summary
Alembic's recent evaluation adjustments reflect a complex technical landscape with short-term momentum indicators showing tentative bullishness, while longer-term signals remain mildly bearish. The stock's performance relative to the Sensex over various timeframes highlights periods of both resilience and underperformance. Investors should remain attentive to evolving technical signals and sector dynamics to navigate the stock's near-term prospects effectively.
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