Alembic Technical Momentum Shift Signals Bearish Trend in Realty Sector

Examining Alembic’s technical indicators reveals a complex picture. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a bearish signal on the weekly chart and a mildly bearish stance monthly, suggesting sustained downward momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral with no clear signal on both weekly and monthly timeframes, indicating a lack of strong momentum either way. Bollinger Bands align with the bearish theme on the weekly scale and mildly bearish on the monthly, reflecting price volatility within a downward channel.

Further technical analysis shows daily moving averages signalling bearishness, reinforcing the short-term downtrend. The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator also reflects bearish momentum weekly and mildly bearish monthly. Contrastingly, Dow Theory presents a mildly bullish weekly signal, while monthly trends show no definitive direction. On-balance volume (OBV) indicates mild bullishness weekly but remains neutral monthly, suggesting volume patterns are not strongly aligned with price declines.

From a broader market perspective, Alembic’s returns have diverged significantly from the Sensex benchmark. Over the past week, Alembic’s stock return was -0.65% compared to Sensex’s 0.96%. Year-to-date, Alembic shows a return of -24.35%, while Sensex recorded 8.36%. Over one year, Alembic’s return is -19.38% against Sensex’s 9.48%. Longer-term returns over three, five, and ten years show positive growth for Alembic but lag behind Sensex’s performance, with 33.22% versus 37.31% (3Y), 10.07% versus 91.65% (5Y), and 138.78% versus 232.28% (10Y) respectively.

Alembic’s 52-week price range spans from ₹85.55 to ₹153.45, with the current price closer to the lower end, reflecting the recent bearish technical signals. The market capitalisation grade stands at 3, indicating a mid-tier valuation within its sector. The recent adjustment in its evaluation, effective from 7 July 2025, reflects a revision in its technical parameters, which has influenced the current momentum shift.

Investors analysing Alembic should consider the mixed technical signals, with predominant bearish trends in momentum indicators balanced by some mildly bullish volume and Dow Theory signals. The divergence from Sensex returns over multiple periods highlights the stock’s unique performance trajectory within the Realty sector. Monitoring daily moving averages and MACD trends will be crucial for assessing near-term price movements, while longer-term investors may weigh the broader market context and sector fundamentals.

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