Alpex Solar Ltd Faces Bearish Momentum Amid Technical Indicator Shifts

Technical Trend Overview and Price Movement

As of 19 Feb 2026, Alpex Solar’s share price closed at ₹811.95, down marginally by 0.51% from the previous close of ₹816.10. The stock’s intraday range fluctuated between ₹804.00 and ₹830.00, indicating moderate volatility. Despite this short-term softness, the stock remains well above its 52-week low of ₹495.00, though significantly below its 52-week high of ₹1,449.70, suggesting a considerable retracement from peak levels.

The technical trend has shifted from mildly bearish to outright bearish, signalling increased selling pressure. This is corroborated by the daily moving averages which currently indicate a bearish stance, reflecting that the stock price is trading below key average price levels, a classic sign of downward momentum.

MACD and RSI Signals

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a bearish signal on the weekly timeframe, reinforcing the negative momentum. The MACD line remains below the signal line, suggesting that the short-term momentum is weaker than the longer-term trend. However, the monthly MACD does not currently provide a definitive signal, indicating some uncertainty in the longer-term trend direction.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings on both weekly and monthly charts show no clear signal, hovering in neutral zones. This lack of RSI extremes suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, which could imply that the current price action is consolidative rather than indicative of a sharp reversal.

Bollinger Bands and KST Indicator

Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are bearish, with the price trending near the lower band, signalling increased volatility and downward pressure. The monthly Bollinger Bands are mildly bearish, indicating a more tempered but still cautious outlook over the longer term.

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, a momentum oscillator, aligns with the bearish weekly trend, further confirming the short-term negative momentum. The monthly KST data is not available, leaving some ambiguity about the longer-term momentum.

Volume and Dow Theory Perspectives

On-Balance Volume (OBV) presents a mildly bullish signal on the weekly timeframe, suggesting that volume trends may be supporting some accumulation despite price weakness. Conversely, the monthly OBV is mildly bearish, indicating that longer-term volume trends are not strongly supportive of a sustained rally.

Dow Theory assessments reveal a mildly bullish weekly outlook, hinting at some underlying strength in the short term. However, the monthly Dow Theory remains mildly bearish, reflecting a cautious stance on the broader trend.

Comparative Performance and Market Context

Alpex Solar’s recent price momentum contrasts with its longer-term performance. Over the past year, the stock has delivered a robust return of 35.27%, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s 12.53% gain over the same period. However, shorter-term returns have been less encouraging, with a 10.28% decline over the past week compared to a modest 0.52% drop in the Sensex. The one-month return also shows a negative 4.26% for Alpex Solar, while the Sensex gained 0.49%.

Year-to-date, the stock’s return of -1.17% slightly trails the Sensex’s -1.19%, indicating a broadly similar performance in the early months of 2026. The absence of data for three, five, and ten-year returns for Alpex Solar limits a full long-term comparative analysis, but the available figures suggest the stock has been a strong performer in the recent past.

Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings

MarketsMOJO assigns Alpex Solar a Mojo Score of 57.0, reflecting a moderate outlook. The company’s Mojo Grade was downgraded from Buy to Hold on 6 Jan 2026, signalling a more cautious stance by analysts. The Market Cap Grade stands at 3, indicating a mid-tier market capitalisation relative to peers in the Other Electrical Equipment sector.

This downgrade aligns with the technical deterioration observed in the stock’s momentum indicators, suggesting that while the company retains some fundamental strengths, the near-term technical outlook warrants prudence.

Investment Implications and Outlook

Investors should weigh the bearish technical signals against the company’s strong one-year performance and sector positioning. The bearish daily moving averages and weekly MACD suggest that short-term price weakness may persist, potentially offering entry points for long-term investors if supported by fundamental strength.

However, the neutral RSI and mildly bullish weekly OBV and Dow Theory signals indicate that the stock is not in a freefall and may be consolidating before a potential directional move. Caution is advised, particularly given the recent downgrade in analyst rating and the stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex in the short term.

Conclusion

Alpex Solar Ltd’s technical landscape has shifted towards a bearish momentum, with key indicators such as MACD, moving averages, and Bollinger Bands signalling caution. While the stock’s longer-term performance remains impressive, recent price action and technical signals suggest investors should approach with measured expectations. The downgrade to a Hold rating by MarketsMOJO further emphasises the need for careful monitoring of price trends and volume dynamics before committing to fresh positions.

For investors focused on the Other Electrical Equipment sector, Alpex Solar’s current technical profile presents both risks and potential opportunities, depending on one’s investment horizon and risk tolerance.

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