Key Events This Week
29 Dec 2025: Sharp open interest surge amid mixed market signals
30 Dec 2025: Technical momentum deteriorates to bearish
1 Jan 2026: Technical momentum shifts to mildly bearish with cautious stabilisation
2 Jan 2026: Week closes at Rs.565.20 (+1.95%) outperforming Sensex
29 December 2025: Surge in Derivatives Activity Amid Mixed Price Action
Ambuja Cements witnessed a significant 11.5% increase in open interest in its derivatives segment, rising from 76,904 to 85,769 contracts. This surge indicated heightened market activity and renewed investor positioning. Despite this, the stock price declined by 0.45% to close at Rs.551.90, underperforming the Sensex’s 0.41% drop.
The futures segment accounted for a notional value of approximately ₹1,16,557 lakhs, while options trading dominated with ₹8,635.11 crores in notional value. This disparity suggests strategic hedging and directional bets by sophisticated investors amid a complex market environment.
Technically, the stock remained above its short-term moving averages but below longer-term averages, indicating short-term strength amid longer-term resistance. Delivery volumes increased by 3.58% over the five-day average, signalling genuine accumulation despite the price dip.
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30 December 2025: Technical Momentum Turns Bearish
The technical outlook for Ambuja Cements deteriorated on 30 December, with key indicators signalling a shift from mildly bearish to outright bearish momentum. The stock price fell further by 0.39% to Rs.549.75, while the Sensex remained nearly flat, down 0.01%.
Moving averages turned bearish, and the weekly MACD indicator confirmed increasing selling pressure. The monthly MACD remained mildly bearish, suggesting a weakening longer-term trend. RSI readings stayed neutral, indicating no oversold or overbought extremes.
Bollinger Bands showed sideways movement on the weekly chart but a mildly bearish bias on the monthly chart. The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator aligned with bearish momentum, reinforcing the cautious technical stance.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) showed no clear weekly trend but a mildly bullish monthly signal, hinting at some accumulation despite price weakness. Dow Theory assessments indicated no definitive weekly trend but a mildly bearish monthly outlook.
31 December 2025 to 2 January 2026: Gradual Recovery and Mixed Signals
From 31 December through 2 January, Ambuja Cements staged a modest recovery, gaining 1.19%, 0.67%, and 0.93% respectively, closing the week at Rs.565.20. This outpaced the Sensex’s cumulative 1.35% gain over the same period, reflecting relative strength.
On 1 January, technical momentum shifted from bearish to mildly bearish, with the stock closing at Rs.555.85, up 1.11% from the previous day. Indicators such as the MACD and KST oscillators suggested easing downward pressure, though the overall trend remained cautious.
RSI readings remained neutral, and Bollinger Bands indicated sideways volatility with a mildly bearish bias on monthly charts. OBV presented mildly bullish signals on the monthly timeframe, suggesting underlying accumulation.
Despite the technical caution, the stock’s relative outperformance against the Sensex over the week and month points to pockets of resilience amid broader sectoral challenges.
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| Date | Stock Price | Day Change | Sensex | Day Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | Rs.551.90 | -0.45% | 37,140.23 | -0.41% |
| 2025-12-30 | Rs.549.75 | -0.39% | 37,135.83 | -0.01% |
| 2025-12-31 | Rs.556.30 | +1.19% | 37,443.41 | +0.83% |
| 2026-01-01 | Rs.560.00 | +0.67% | 37,497.10 | +0.14% |
| 2026-01-02 | Rs.565.20 | +0.93% | 37,799.57 | +0.81% |
Key Takeaways
Positive Signals: The week ended with Ambuja Cements outperforming the Sensex, gaining 1.95% versus the benchmark’s 1.35%. Rising delivery volumes and mildly bullish On-Balance Volume readings suggest underlying accumulation. The shift from outright bearish to mildly bearish technical momentum on 1 January indicates potential stabilisation. The substantial surge in derivatives open interest reflects active investor engagement and strategic positioning.
Cautionary Signals: Despite short-term gains, the stock remains below key longer-term moving averages, indicating resistance to sustained upward momentum. The MarketsMOJO Mojo Score remains low at 42.0 with a Sell rating, reflecting fundamental and technical concerns. Mixed technical indicators, including bearish MACD on weekly charts and sideways Bollinger Bands, point to ongoing uncertainty. The stock’s relative underperformance over longer horizons versus the Sensex highlights challenges in maintaining consistent growth.
Conclusion
Ambuja Cements Ltd’s week was characterised by mixed momentum and cautious investor sentiment. While the stock managed to outperform the Sensex with a 1.95% gain, technical indicators and fundamental ratings suggest a complex landscape with both upside potential and downside risks. The sharp increase in derivatives open interest and rising delivery volumes indicate active market participation, but the prevailing Sell rating and technical resistance levels counsel prudence.
Investors should monitor key technical levels and volume trends closely, as the stock navigates a transitional phase between bearish and mildly bearish momentum. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Ambuja Cements can break out of its consolidation and establish a more decisive trend.
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