Open Interest and Volume Dynamics
On 23 Jan 2026, Ambuja Cements recorded an open interest (OI) of 86,312 contracts, up from 72,742 the previous day, marking an increase of 13,570 contracts or 18.65%. This rise in OI was accompanied by a total volume of 96,506 contracts traded, indicating robust participation in the derivatives market. The futures segment alone accounted for a value of approximately ₹2,01,086.65 lakhs, while the options segment's notional value was substantially higher at ₹34,170.01 crores, culminating in a combined derivatives turnover of ₹2,05,974.78 lakhs.
The underlying stock price closed at ₹516, having touched an intraday low of ₹513.5, down 6.06% from the previous close. This decline contrasts with the rising open interest, suggesting that new positions are being established amid falling prices, a scenario often interpreted as fresh bearish bets or hedging activity by market participants.
Price Performance and Technical Indicators
Ambuja Cements underperformed its sector by 3.99% and the Sensex by 4.61% on the day, with a one-day return of -5.08% compared to the sector's -1.51% and Sensex's -0.77%. The stock has reversed its short-term uptrend after two consecutive days of gains, trading below all key moving averages — 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day — signalling sustained bearish momentum.
Weighted average price data reveals that most volume was transacted near the day's low, reinforcing the selling pressure. Additionally, delivery volume surged to 11.36 lakh shares on 22 Jan, a 28.93% increase over the five-day average, indicating rising investor participation in the cash segment despite the price weakness.
Market Positioning and Potential Directional Bets
The sharp increase in open interest alongside falling prices typically points to fresh short positions being built or long positions being unwound. Given the substantial rise in derivatives activity, it is plausible that traders are positioning for further downside or volatility in Ambuja Cements’ shares.
Liquidity remains adequate for sizeable trades, with the stock’s average traded value supporting transaction sizes up to ₹1.9 crore based on 2% of the five-day average traded value. This liquidity facilitates active participation by institutional and retail investors alike, enabling swift adjustments to market views.
This week's disclosed pick, a Large Cap from NBFC, comes with precise Target Price and analysis. Check if you're positioned right for this opportunity!
- - Precise target price set
- - Weekly selection live
- - Position check opportunity
Mojo Score and Analyst Ratings
Ambuja Cements currently holds a Mojo Score of 37.0, categorised as a 'Sell' grade, downgraded from 'Hold' on 10 Nov 2025. The downgrade reflects deteriorating fundamentals and technical weakness, signalling caution for investors. The company’s market capitalisation stands at ₹1,28,250.56 crore, placing it firmly in the large-cap segment, but its Market Cap Grade is rated 1, indicating limited upside potential relative to peers.
Given the negative price action, rising open interest, and bearish technical setup, the consensus among analysts is increasingly cautious. The stock’s underperformance relative to the sector and benchmark indices further supports a defensive stance.
Sector and Broader Market Context
The cement sector has faced headwinds recently due to fluctuating input costs and subdued demand in certain regions. Ambuja Cements’ performance mirrors these challenges, compounded by profit-taking and risk-off sentiment in the broader market. The Sensex’s modest decline of 0.77% on the day contrasts with Ambuja’s sharper fall, highlighting stock-specific pressures.
Investors should monitor open interest trends closely, as sustained increases amid falling prices may presage further downside or heightened volatility. Conversely, any reversal in OI growth coupled with price recovery could signal a shift in market sentiment.
Holding Ambuja Cements Ltd from Cement & Cement Products? See if there's a smarter choice! SwitchER compares it with peers and suggests superior options across market caps and sectors!
- - Peer comparison ready
- - Superior options identified
- - Cross market-cap analysis
Implications for Investors
For investors and traders, the current derivatives activity in Ambuja Cements suggests a cautious approach. The surge in open interest amid declining prices may indicate that market participants are positioning for further weakness or hedging existing exposure. This environment calls for close monitoring of price action and volume patterns to identify potential inflection points.
Long-term investors should weigh the company’s fundamentals and sector outlook against the technical signals. The downgrade to a 'Sell' grade and the stock’s failure to hold key moving averages imply that downside risks remain elevated in the near term.
Meanwhile, traders might consider strategies that capitalise on volatility, such as option spreads or short futures positions, while maintaining disciplined risk management given the stock’s liquidity and active derivatives market.
Conclusion
Ambuja Cements Ltd’s recent open interest surge in derivatives, coupled with bearish price action and technical weakness, paints a picture of increased market caution and potential downside risk. While rising investor participation signals active interest, the prevailing trend suggests that the stock may face further pressure in the short term. Investors should remain vigilant and consider alternative opportunities within the cement sector or broader market to optimise portfolio performance.
Upgrade at special rates, valid only for the next few days. Claim Your Special Rate →
