Technical Momentum and Indicator Analysis
The stock closed at ₹88.44 on 6 January 2026, down 2.76% from the previous close of ₹90.95. Intraday trading saw a high of ₹90.99 and a low of ₹88.40, indicating a relatively narrow trading range but with downward pressure. Over the past week, Arihant Capital’s price declined by 2.44%, contrasting with the Sensex’s 0.88% gain, signalling underperformance against the broader market.
On a monthly basis, the stock has fallen 7.73%, while the Sensex has marginally declined by 0.32%. Year-to-date returns also show a negative 1.62% for Arihant Capital versus a positive 0.26% for the Sensex. Over the last year, the stock has underperformed significantly with a 14.18% loss compared to the Sensex’s 7.85% gain. Despite this, the longer-term performance remains robust, with a five-year return of 450.68% and a ten-year return of 1416.98%, far outpacing the Sensex’s respective 76.39% and 234.01% returns.
MACD and Momentum Oscillators Signal Bearishness
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a bearish outlook on both weekly and monthly charts. The weekly MACD is firmly bearish, indicating that the short-term momentum is weakening relative to the longer-term trend. The monthly MACD is mildly bearish, suggesting that the broader trend is also losing strength but not yet decisively negative. This divergence between timeframes often signals a transitional phase where investors should exercise caution.
The KST (Know Sure Thing) oscillator, a momentum indicator that aggregates multiple rate-of-change measures, also confirms this bearish shift. It is bearish on the weekly chart and mildly bearish on the monthly chart, reinforcing the view that momentum is waning across multiple time horizons.
Bollinger Bands and Moving Averages: Mixed Signals
Bollinger Bands, which measure volatility and price levels relative to moving averages, are bearish on both weekly and monthly charts. This suggests that the stock price is trending towards the lower band, indicating increased selling pressure and potential continuation of the downward trend.
Conversely, daily moving averages remain mildly bullish, reflecting some short-term support around current price levels. This mild bullishness may be attributed to the stock trading above certain key moving averages such as the 20-day or 50-day, but the overall technical environment remains fragile.
Other Technical Indicators and Volume Trends
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows no clear signal on either weekly or monthly charts, hovering in a neutral zone that neither indicates overbought nor oversold conditions. This neutrality suggests that the stock is not yet at an extreme valuation from a momentum perspective, but the lack of positive RSI signals adds to the cautious outlook.
On-Balance Volume (OBV), which tracks volume flow to confirm price trends, shows no discernible trend on weekly or monthly charts. The absence of volume confirmation for price moves weakens the conviction behind recent price declines, implying that the selling pressure may not be strongly supported by heavy trading volumes.
Dow Theory assessments align with the broader technical picture, indicating mildly bearish trends on both weekly and monthly timeframes. This theory, which analyses market trends through price action and volume, supports the view that Arihant Capital is currently in a phase of technical weakness.
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Mojo Score and Grade Downgrade Reflect Growing Caution
MarketsMOJO’s proprietary Mojo Score for Arihant Capital stands at 34.0, categorised as a Sell rating. This represents a downgrade from the previous Hold grade assigned on 29 December 2025. The downgrade reflects the deteriorating technical landscape and the stock’s underperformance relative to the broader market and its sector peers.
The company’s Market Cap Grade is 4, indicating a mid-sized capitalisation within the capital markets sector. This size factor, combined with the current technical weakness, suggests that Arihant Capital may face challenges in attracting strong institutional interest until clearer signs of a trend reversal emerge.
Price Range and Volatility Context
Over the past 52 weeks, Arihant Capital’s stock price has ranged between ₹56.31 and ₹120.35, demonstrating significant volatility. The current price of ₹88.44 sits closer to the lower half of this range, indicating that the stock has retraced substantially from its highs. This retracement aligns with the bearish technical signals and the recent negative returns.
Despite the recent weakness, the stock’s long-term performance remains impressive, with a ten-year return exceeding 1400%, vastly outperforming the Sensex’s 234% over the same period. This long-term outperformance may provide some support to investors considering the stock’s valuation and growth prospects.
Sector and Industry Considerations
Arihant Capital operates within the capital markets industry, a sector that is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, interest rate changes, and market sentiment. The current technical deterioration may reflect broader sectoral pressures or company-specific challenges. Investors should monitor sector trends closely, as a sustained recovery in capital markets activity could provide a catalyst for a technical rebound.
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Investor Takeaway and Outlook
In summary, Arihant Capital Markets Ltd is currently navigating a technical inflection point marked by a shift from mild bullishness to mild bearishness. The confluence of bearish MACD readings, weakening momentum as indicated by the KST oscillator, and bearish Bollinger Bands suggests that the stock may face further downside pressure in the near term.
However, the mildly bullish daily moving averages and neutral RSI readings imply that the stock is not yet deeply oversold, leaving room for potential consolidation or a technical rebound if positive catalysts emerge. Investors should weigh the recent downgrade in the Mojo Grade and the stock’s underperformance against the Sensex when considering new positions or portfolio adjustments.
Given the mixed signals and the current technical environment, a cautious approach is advisable. Monitoring volume trends and sector developments will be crucial to identifying a sustainable change in momentum. Long-term investors may find value in the stock’s strong historical returns, but short-term traders should remain vigilant for confirmation of trend direction before committing capital.
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