Open Interest and Volume Dynamics
On 20 Feb 2026, Axis Bank’s open interest in derivatives rose sharply to 1,98,544 contracts from 1,68,500 contracts the previous day, marking an increase of 30,044 contracts or 17.83%. This surge in OI was accompanied by a substantial volume of 1,39,865 contracts, indicating heightened trading activity and fresh positions being established rather than merely unwinding existing ones.
The futures segment alone accounted for a notional value of approximately ₹5,00,710 lakhs, while the options segment’s notional value was an astronomical ₹69,846 crores, underscoring the scale of derivatives trading interest in Axis Bank. The combined derivatives value stood at ₹5,04,383 lakhs, reflecting strong liquidity and investor engagement.
Price Performance and Technical Context
Axis Bank’s underlying share price closed at ₹1,372, just 3.29% shy of its 52-week high of ₹1,418.3. The stock outperformed its sector by 0.95% on the day, delivering a 1.14% return compared to the Private Sector Bank sector’s 0.30% and the broader Sensex’s 0.42%. Notably, the stock is trading above all key moving averages – 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day – signalling a sustained bullish trend.
However, delivery volumes tell a more nuanced story. On 19 Feb, delivery volume fell sharply by 55.6% to 15.29 lakh shares compared to the five-day average, suggesting that while derivatives activity is heating up, actual investor participation in the cash segment has moderated. This divergence often points to speculative positioning in derivatives rather than broad-based accumulation in the underlying shares.
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Market Positioning and Directional Bets
The sharp rise in open interest alongside strong volume suggests that traders are increasingly positioning for a directional move in Axis Bank’s stock. Given the proximity to the 52-week high and the stock’s outperformance relative to its sector and benchmark indices, the bias appears to be bullish.
Options data further supports this view. The large notional value in options trading indicates active call option buying, which is typically a bullish signal. Put option activity remains comparatively subdued, implying limited hedging or bearish bets at present.
Axis Bank’s Mojo Score currently stands at 67.0 with a Mojo Grade of Hold, upgraded from Sell on 15 Oct 2025. This upgrade reflects improved fundamentals and technical momentum, although the grade suggests cautious optimism rather than an outright buy recommendation. The bank’s large market capitalisation of ₹4,22,974 crores and strong liquidity (supporting trade sizes up to ₹12.83 crores) make it a preferred choice for institutional and retail investors alike.
Sector and Broader Market Context
Within the Private Sector Bank sector, Axis Bank’s recent outperformance and derivatives activity stand out. The sector itself has been gradually recovering, supported by improving credit growth and stable asset quality. Axis Bank’s ability to trade above all major moving averages while maintaining strong derivatives interest suggests it is consolidating its leadership position.
However, the falling delivery volumes caution that the rally may be driven more by speculative flows than broad-based investor conviction. Market participants should monitor whether delivery volumes pick up in coming sessions to confirm sustained buying interest in the cash market.
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Implications for Investors
For investors, the surge in derivatives open interest in Axis Bank signals increased market attention and potential for near-term price volatility. The bullish technical setup and upgraded Mojo Grade suggest that the stock could continue to trend higher, especially if it breaches its 52-week high decisively.
Nonetheless, the divergence between derivatives activity and falling delivery volumes warrants caution. Investors should watch for confirmation through sustained delivery volume growth and monitor broader sector trends. Risk management remains crucial given the speculative nature of current positioning.
Overall, Axis Bank’s derivatives market activity reflects a growing consensus of positive momentum, but the Hold rating advises measured exposure rather than aggressive accumulation at this stage.
Outlook and Conclusion
Axis Bank Ltd. is currently at a critical juncture where strong derivatives interest and technical strength converge. The 17.8% jump in open interest and robust volumes highlight renewed investor confidence and directional bets favouring further upside. Trading near its 52-week high and outperforming peers, the bank is well placed to capitalise on improving sector fundamentals.
However, the Hold Mojo Grade and subdued delivery volumes suggest that investors should remain vigilant and look for confirmation signals before committing significant capital. The evolving derivatives landscape offers valuable insights into market sentiment and potential price trajectories, making Axis Bank a key stock to watch in the private banking space.
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