Key Events This Week
16 Feb: Stock opens at Rs.9,691.70, down 0.72%
17 Feb: Upgraded to Buy by MarketsMOJO, stock rises 1.42%
18 Feb: Hits new 52-week high of Rs.9,978.25; surge in call option activity
19 Feb: New 52-week high at Rs.10,059.05; open interest surges amid price dip
20 Feb: Week closes at Rs.9,806.90, up 0.87% on the day
16 February 2026: Week Opens with a Slight Decline
Bajaj Auto began the week at Rs.9,691.70, down 0.72% from the previous Friday’s close of Rs.9,761.90. This decline contrasted with the Sensex’s 0.70% gain to 36,787.89, reflecting a cautious start for the stock amid broader market optimism. Trading volume was moderate at 7,557 shares, indicating subdued investor activity ahead of the week’s key developments.
17 February 2026: Upgrade to Buy Spurs 1.42% Gain
The stock rebounded strongly on 17 February, rising 1.42% to close at Rs.9,829.55. This surge followed MarketsMOJO’s upgrade of Bajaj Auto Ltd. from 'Hold' to 'Buy' based on robust technical and fundamental signals. The upgrade highlighted the company’s strong long-term return on equity of 23.08%, healthy sales growth of 17.33% annually, and a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08 times. Institutional investors’ 22.91% stake further reinforced confidence. Despite flat quarterly results, the upgrade reflected improved technical momentum, including bullish MACD and moving averages.
18 February 2026: New 52-Week High and Surge in Call Options
Bajaj Auto hit a new 52-week high of Rs.9,978.25 on 18 February, marking a 1.51% gain for the day and continuing its upward trajectory. The stock outperformed the Sensex, which rose 0.43% to 37,062.35. This price milestone was accompanied by a notable surge in call option activity, particularly at the ₹10,000 strike expiring on 24 February 2026. Approximately 9,716 call contracts traded, generating turnover of ₹556.65 lakhs and open interest of 3,008 contracts, signalling strong bullish sentiment. The stock’s position above all key moving averages confirmed robust technical strength, attracting both institutional and retail interest.
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19 February 2026: New 52-Week High at Rs.10,059.05 Amid Mixed Signals
On 19 February, Bajaj Auto reached another 52-week high of Rs.10,059.05, despite closing lower at Rs.9,722.55, down 2.56% on the day. This minor pullback followed two days of gains and occurred amid broader market volatility, with the Sensex declining 1.45% to 36,523.88. The stock’s trading above all major moving averages indicated sustained technical strength despite the dip. Open interest in derivatives surged 10.07% to 90,771 contracts, reflecting heightened market activity and mixed positioning. The futures segment alone accounted for ₹2,27,327 lakhs in value, while options notional value was extraordinarily high at ₹72,66,62,350.72 lakhs, underscoring intense trading interest. Delivery volumes rose 59.23% on 18 February, signalling genuine investor participation rather than speculative intraday moves.
20 February 2026: Week Closes with a 0.87% Gain
Bajaj Auto ended the week on a positive note, gaining 0.87% to close at Rs.9,806.90. The Sensex also recovered, rising 0.41% to 36,674.32. The stock’s recovery after the previous day’s dip reinforced its resilience and technical momentum. Trading volume was lighter at 4,453 shares, suggesting consolidation after a volatile week marked by multiple 52-week highs and significant derivatives activity.
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Daily Price Comparison: Bajaj Auto vs Sensex (16-20 Feb 2026)
| Date | Stock Price | Day Change | Sensex | Day Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Rs.9,691.70 | -0.72% | 36,787.89 | +0.70% |
| 2026-02-17 | Rs.9,829.55 | +1.42% | 36,904.38 | +0.32% |
| 2026-02-18 | Rs.9,978.25 | +1.51% | 37,062.35 | +0.43% |
| 2026-02-19 | Rs.9,722.55 | -2.56% | 36,523.88 | -1.45% |
| 2026-02-20 | Rs.9,806.90 | +0.87% | 36,674.32 | +0.41% |
Key Takeaways from the Week
Positive Signals: Bajaj Auto’s upgrade to a Buy rating by MarketsMOJO on 16 February was a pivotal event, driving renewed investor interest. The stock’s ability to hit multiple 52-week highs (Rs.9,978.25 on 18 Feb and Rs.10,059.05 on 19 Feb) amidst a volatile market highlights strong technical momentum. The surge in call option activity, particularly at the ₹10,000 strike price, reflects bullish sentiment and expectations of further upside. Institutional backing remains robust with a 22.91% stake, and the company’s fundamentals, including a 23.08% ROE and conservative leverage, underpin confidence.
Cautionary Signals: Despite the positive momentum, the flat quarterly results reported in December 2025 and rising interest expenses (up 62.17% to ₹600.47 crores) suggest margin pressures ahead. The operating profit to interest coverage ratio of 11.89 times, while adequate, warrants monitoring in a rising interest rate environment. The 2.56% price dip on 19 February amid a surge in open interest indicates mixed market positioning and potential short-term profit-taking. The relatively high valuation metrics, including a PEG ratio of 1.7 and enterprise value to capital employed ratio above 6, imply limited margin for error.
Conclusion: A Week of Strength Tempered by Caution
Bajaj Auto Ltd. demonstrated resilience and strength during the week of 16-20 February 2026, outperforming the Sensex marginally with a 0.46% gain. The upgrade to a Buy rating, multiple new 52-week highs, and robust call option activity underscore a bullish technical and fundamental backdrop. However, the flat recent quarterly performance and rising interest costs introduce cautionary elements that investors should consider. The surge in derivatives open interest amid a price pullback suggests a complex market view with both speculative and hedging activity. Overall, Bajaj Auto remains a key large-cap stock exhibiting solid growth and market leadership, supported by strong fundamentals and improving technical indicators, yet requiring vigilance for short-term volatility.
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