Open Interest and Volume Dynamics
On 1 Feb 2026, Bajaj Auto’s open interest (OI) in futures and options contracts rose sharply from 66,108 to 73,323 contracts, an increase of 7,215 contracts or 10.91%. This expansion in OI was accompanied by a total volume of 1,36,472 contracts, indicating strong participation from market players. The futures segment alone accounted for a value of approximately ₹83,781 lakhs, while options contracts represented a significantly larger notional value of ₹92,760.79 crores, underscoring the importance of options in the stock’s derivatives trading.
The underlying stock closed at ₹9,413, just 3.8% shy of its 52-week high of ₹9,888, reflecting a near-term resilience despite intraday volatility. The stock’s intraday range was wide, touching a high of ₹9,855 (+2.68%) and a low of ₹9,175.5 (-4.4%), with the weighted average price skewed towards the lower end, suggesting selling pressure during the session.
Market Positioning and Sentiment
The rise in open interest alongside elevated volumes typically indicates fresh positions being established rather than existing ones being squared off. In Bajaj Auto’s case, this suggests that traders are actively repositioning, possibly anticipating a directional move. However, the stock’s slight decline of 0.75% on the day, despite outperforming the broader automobile sector by 0.63%, points to a cautious or mixed sentiment prevailing among investors.
Technical indicators provide further context: Bajaj Auto is trading above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, signalling a sustained uptrend over multiple timeframes. Additionally, delivery volumes on 30 Jan rose by 15.24% to 1.6 lakh shares compared to the 5-day average, indicating rising investor participation and confidence in the stock’s medium-term prospects.
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Interpreting the Open Interest Surge
The 10.9% jump in open interest is significant in the context of Bajaj Auto’s derivatives market, especially given the stock’s large-cap status with a market capitalisation of ₹2,66,361.44 crores. Such a rise often reflects increased hedging activity or speculative positioning ahead of anticipated corporate developments or macroeconomic events impacting the automobile sector.
Given the stock’s proximity to its 52-week high and the mixed price action, the surge in OI could indicate that traders are positioning for a potential breakout or a correction. The fact that the weighted average traded price was closer to the day’s low suggests that sellers may have been more aggressive, possibly taking profits after recent gains or hedging against downside risks.
Moreover, the liquidity profile supports sizeable trades, with the stock’s average traded value allowing for a trade size of approximately ₹5.92 crores based on 2% of the 5-day average traded value. This liquidity ensures that institutional investors can enter or exit positions without significant price impact, which may explain the robust open interest growth.
Sector and Benchmark Comparison
On the day, Bajaj Auto’s 1-day return was -0.70%, outperforming the automobile sector’s decline of -1.61% and the Sensex’s fall of -1.07%. This relative outperformance, despite a negative close, highlights the stock’s defensive qualities within a volatile market environment. The automobile sector has been grappling with supply chain challenges and fluctuating demand, making Bajaj Auto’s steady positioning noteworthy.
Investors should note that the company’s Mojo Score stands at 67.0 with a Mojo Grade upgraded to Hold from Sell as of 22 Dec 2025. This upgrade reflects improved fundamentals and technical outlook, although the stock remains cautious in the near term.
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Potential Directional Bets and Investor Implications
The combination of rising open interest and volume, alongside a slight price pullback, suggests that market participants are hedging their bets or preparing for increased volatility. Traders may be using options strategies to protect gains or speculate on directional moves, given the substantial notional value in options contracts.
For investors, this environment calls for careful monitoring of price action and derivatives data. The stock’s position above key moving averages supports a bullish medium-term outlook, but the recent intraday weakness and volume concentration near lows indicate caution. Investors should watch for confirmation of trend continuation or reversal through subsequent sessions.
Furthermore, the increased delivery volumes signal genuine investor interest rather than purely speculative trading, which bodes well for the stock’s liquidity and price discovery process.
Conclusion
Bajaj Auto Ltd.’s recent surge in open interest by nearly 11% amid mixed price signals highlights a complex market scenario where investors are actively repositioning. While the stock remains close to its 52-week high and maintains a Hold rating with a Mojo Score of 67.0, the derivatives activity suggests anticipation of a significant directional move. Investors should balance the positive technical backdrop with the cautionary signs from intraday price action and volume patterns, staying alert to evolving market cues in the automobile sector.
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