Bajaj Auto Ltd. Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Indicator Signals

Technical Trend Overview

Bajaj Auto’s technical trend has softened from a clear bullish posture to a mildly bullish one, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. The stock closed at ₹9,580.00 on 10 Feb 2026, marking a modest 0.65% gain from the previous close of ₹9,518.60. The intraday range saw a high of ₹9,624.00 and a low of ₹9,511.00, indicating some volatility but overall resilience near its 52-week high of ₹9,900.00.

Despite this, the stock remains comfortably above its 52-week low of ₹7,088.25, underscoring a strong long-term uptrend. The daily moving averages continue to signal bullish momentum, providing short-term support for price action.

MACD and Momentum Indicators

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed picture. On a weekly basis, MACD remains bullish, suggesting that momentum is still positive in the near term. However, the monthly MACD has turned mildly bearish, signalling a potential slowdown or consolidation phase in the broader trend. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings highlights the importance of monitoring multiple timeframes for a comprehensive view.

Similarly, the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator aligns with this mixed momentum. Weekly KST readings are bullish, reinforcing short-term strength, while monthly KST has weakened to mildly bearish territory, indicating caution for longer-term investors.

RSI and Bollinger Bands Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no definitive signal, hovering in neutral zones. This suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for further directional movement based on upcoming market catalysts.

Bollinger Bands provide additional insight. Weekly Bollinger Bands remain bullish, with price action trending near the upper band, reflecting sustained buying interest. Monthly Bollinger Bands have shifted to mildly bullish, indicating a slight easing of upward pressure but still favouring a positive bias.

Moving Averages and Volume Trends

Daily moving averages continue to support the stock’s price, reinforcing a bullish short-term trend. This is a positive sign for traders looking for momentum plays. However, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator shows no clear trend on both weekly and monthly charts, suggesting that volume is not decisively confirming price moves at this stage.

The lack of volume confirmation may imply that the current price gains are not yet backed by strong institutional buying, which could limit the sustainability of the rally without fresh catalysts.

Dow Theory and Broader Market Context

According to Dow Theory, the weekly chart shows no clear trend, while the monthly chart is mildly bullish. This aligns with the overall technical narrative of cautious optimism. The absence of a strong weekly trend suggests that short-term price swings could be volatile, whereas the monthly mild bullishness supports a constructive medium-term outlook.

Comparing Bajaj Auto’s returns to the Sensex reveals interesting insights. Over the past week, Bajaj Auto returned 0.90%, lagging behind the Sensex’s 2.94%. Over one month, the stock gained 0.24% versus the Sensex’s 0.59%. However, year-to-date returns favour Bajaj Auto at 2.53%, outperforming the Sensex’s negative 1.36%. Over longer horizons, Bajaj Auto has significantly outperformed the benchmark, with a three-year return of 149.05% compared to Sensex’s 38.25%, and a ten-year return of 302.92% versus 249.97% for the Sensex.

Mojo Score and Rating Update

MarketsMOJO has recently downgraded Bajaj Auto’s rating from Buy to Hold as of 09 Feb 2026, reflecting the tempered technical outlook. The company’s Mojo Score stands at 67.0, indicating moderate confidence in the stock’s near-term prospects. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, signalling a large-cap status but with limited upside momentum currently.

This rating adjustment underscores the need for investors to balance the stock’s strong historical performance with the current technical signals that suggest a more cautious stance.

Investment Implications and Outlook

For investors, the current technical landscape of Bajaj Auto suggests a period of consolidation or mild bullishness rather than a strong breakout. The divergence between weekly and monthly indicators calls for vigilance, as short-term momentum remains positive but longer-term signals hint at potential headwinds.

Given the stock’s proximity to its 52-week high and the absence of strong volume confirmation, traders may prefer to wait for clearer signals before committing to fresh positions. Long-term investors can take comfort from Bajaj Auto’s robust multi-year returns and dominant market position in the automobile sector, but should remain mindful of the recent downgrade to a Hold rating.

Monitoring key technical levels, such as support near the daily moving averages and resistance around ₹9,900, will be crucial in the coming weeks. Additionally, any shifts in broader market sentiment or sector-specific developments could influence the stock’s trajectory.

Summary

Bajaj Auto Ltd. currently exhibits a nuanced technical profile characterised by a shift from bullish to mildly bullish momentum. While daily moving averages and weekly MACD support near-term strength, monthly indicators such as MACD and KST suggest caution. The stock’s strong historical returns contrast with recent relative underperformance versus the Sensex in the short term. The downgrade from Buy to Hold by MarketsMOJO reflects this balanced outlook, advising investors to weigh the stock’s solid fundamentals against mixed technical signals.

Overall, Bajaj Auto remains a key player in the automobile sector with a resilient price base, but the current technical parameters recommend a measured approach until clearer momentum emerges.

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