Bajaj Finance Ltd Sees Significant Open Interest Surge Amid Mixed Market Signals

Open Interest and Volume Dynamics

The latest data reveals that Bajaj Finance’s open interest rose from 1,66,884 contracts to 1,87,544 contracts, an increase of 20,660 contracts or 12.38% on 18 February 2026. This expansion in OI is accompanied by a futures volume of 84,571 contracts, reflecting sustained trading interest in the stock’s derivatives. The futures value stood at ₹3,11,069 lakhs, while the options segment exhibited an enormous notional value of approximately ₹33,995.9 crores, underscoring the stock’s prominence in the derivatives market.

The underlying stock price closed at ₹1,019, marginally down by 0.79% on the day, underperforming its sector’s decline of 0.60% but outperforming the Sensex’s 0.94% fall. Notably, Bajaj Finance has traded within a narrow range of ₹7.5, indicating consolidation after two days of gains. The stock remains above its key moving averages—5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day—signalling an overall bullish technical backdrop despite the recent pullback.

Investor Participation and Liquidity Considerations

Delivery volumes on 18 February dropped sharply by 42.46% compared to the five-day average, with only 41.26 lakh shares delivered. This decline in investor participation suggests that while derivatives activity is rising, actual stock holding or transfer is subdued, possibly reflecting a preference for trading synthetic exposure rather than outright ownership. The stock’s liquidity remains robust, with an average traded value sufficient to support trade sizes up to ₹22.7 crores, ensuring ease of entry and exit for institutional and retail traders alike.

Market Positioning and Directional Implications

The surge in open interest alongside steady futures volume suggests that traders are actively repositioning in Bajaj Finance’s derivatives. The increase in OI typically indicates fresh money entering the market, which can be interpreted as a sign of conviction in the stock’s near-term direction. However, the stock’s slight price decline and narrow trading range imply a cautious stance among investors, possibly awaiting fresh triggers or macroeconomic cues.

Options data, with a notional value exceeding ₹33,995 crores, points to significant hedging and speculative activity. The large options value relative to futures suggests that market participants are employing complex strategies, including spreads and straddles, to capitalise on expected volatility or to protect existing positions. This complexity is typical for a large-cap NBFC like Bajaj Finance, which is sensitive to interest rate movements and credit cycle developments.

Technical and Fundamental Context

Technically, Bajaj Finance’s position above all major moving averages indicates a sustained uptrend, despite the recent minor correction. The stock’s market capitalisation of ₹6,31,644.13 crores classifies it as a large-cap entity, attracting institutional interest. However, the MarketsMOJO Mojo Score has been downgraded from a Buy to a Hold on 1 February 2026, reflecting a more cautious outlook amid sectoral headwinds and valuation concerns. The current Mojo Score stands at 65.0, signalling moderate confidence but advising prudence.

The NBFC sector, to which Bajaj Finance belongs, has been navigating challenges related to credit growth moderation and regulatory scrutiny. Bajaj Finance’s ability to maintain liquidity and investor interest in derivatives despite these challenges is noteworthy, but the downgrade in rating suggests that investors should monitor developments closely before committing fresh capital.

Outlook and Investor Takeaways

For investors and traders, the recent open interest surge in Bajaj Finance’s derivatives signals an active repositioning phase. The mixed signals from price action and volume suggest that while there is interest in the stock’s upside potential, caution prevails amid broader market uncertainties. The stock’s technical strength is intact, but the downgrade to a Hold rating advises a measured approach.

Market participants should watch for further changes in open interest and volume patterns, especially around key strike prices in the options market, to gauge the prevailing sentiment more accurately. Additionally, monitoring sectoral developments and macroeconomic indicators will be crucial in assessing Bajaj Finance’s trajectory in the coming weeks.

In summary, the derivatives market activity around Bajaj Finance reflects a nuanced view: a blend of optimism tempered by caution. Investors would be well advised to balance their exposure accordingly, considering both the stock’s strong fundamentals and the evolving market dynamics.

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