Bajaj Finance Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Signal Mildly Bullish Outlook

Price Momentum and Daily Moving Averages

The daily moving averages for Bajaj Finance have turned mildly bullish, signalling a positive short-term momentum. The stock’s intraday high of ₹974.55 and low of ₹942.15 on 4 Feb 2026 reflect increased volatility but with a clear upward bias. This shift is significant given the stock’s 52-week range between ₹788.02 and ₹1,102.45, positioning the current price closer to the upper end of its annual trading band.

Such a move is often interpreted as a potential breakout phase, especially when supported by volume and momentum indicators. However, investors should note that the market cap grade remains at 1, indicating a relatively modest valuation compared to peers in the Non Banking Financial Company (NBFC) sector.

MACD and Momentum Oscillators: Divergent Signals

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a nuanced picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD remains mildly bearish, suggesting that the medium-term momentum has yet to fully confirm the recent price strength. Conversely, the monthly MACD is bullish, indicating that the longer-term trend favours upward movement. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings often signals a transitional phase where short-term corrections may occur before a sustained rally.

Complementing this, the Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator shows bearish momentum on the weekly chart but bullish momentum monthly, reinforcing the idea of a longer-term uptrend tempered by short-term caution.

RSI and Bollinger Bands: Neutral to Mildly Bearish Weekly, Bullish Monthly

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently offers no clear signal on either weekly or monthly timeframes, hovering in a neutral zone that neither indicates overbought nor oversold conditions. This neutrality suggests that the stock has room to move in either direction without immediate risk of a reversal due to extreme momentum.

Bollinger Bands add further context: weekly readings are mildly bearish, hinting at some price consolidation or mild selling pressure in the short term. However, monthly Bollinger Bands are bullish, implying that volatility-adjusted price levels support a longer-term upward trajectory.

Volume and On-Balance Volume (OBV) Trends

On-Balance Volume (OBV) analysis reveals no clear trend on the weekly chart, while the monthly OBV is mildly bearish. This suggests that despite the recent price rally, volume support is not yet robust enough to confirm a strong accumulation phase. Investors should monitor volume closely in coming sessions to validate the sustainability of the current price momentum.

Dow Theory and Broader Market Context

According to Dow Theory, both weekly and monthly signals remain mildly bearish, indicating that the broader market trend for Bajaj Finance is still under pressure. This is an important cautionary note, as Dow Theory emphasises confirmation of trends through market breadth and sectoral participation.

Comparing Bajaj Finance’s returns with the Sensex reveals a mixed performance. Over the past week, the stock outperformed the Sensex with a 5.44% gain versus 2.30% for the benchmark. However, over the one-month and year-to-date periods, Bajaj Finance has slightly underperformed, with returns of -2.56% and -2.22% respectively, compared to Sensex’s -2.36% and -1.74%. Longer-term returns remain strong, with a 1-year gain of 14.53% versus 8.49% for the Sensex, and an impressive 10-year return of 1,412.03% compared to 245.70% for the benchmark.

Mojo Score and Rating Revision

MarketsMOJO has revised Bajaj Finance’s Mojo Grade from Buy to Hold as of 1 Feb 2026, reflecting the mixed technical signals and cautious outlook. The current Mojo Score stands at 65.0, indicating moderate confidence in the stock’s near-term prospects. This downgrade aligns with the technical trend shift from mildly bearish to mildly bullish, suggesting that while the stock shows promise, investors should remain vigilant for potential volatility.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

Bajaj Finance Ltd’s recent price momentum shift is encouraging, particularly with daily moving averages turning mildly bullish and monthly MACD supporting a longer-term uptrend. However, the presence of weekly bearish signals in MACD, KST, Bollinger Bands, and Dow Theory advises caution. The neutral RSI and subdued volume trends further suggest that the stock is in a consolidation phase rather than a decisive breakout.

Investors should weigh the stock’s strong historical returns and sector leadership against the current mixed technical landscape. The downgrade to a Hold rating by MarketsMOJO reflects this balanced view, recommending a wait-and-watch approach until clearer confirmation of trend direction emerges.

Given the stock’s outperformance over the past week and solid long-term returns, selective accumulation on dips could be a prudent strategy. Monitoring key support levels near ₹940 and resistance around ₹1,000 will be critical in the coming weeks to gauge momentum sustainability.

Summary of Key Technical Indicators for Bajaj Finance Ltd

• Price: ₹964.75 (up 6.68% on 4 Feb 2026)
• 52-week range: ₹788.02 – ₹1,102.45
• MACD: Weekly - Mildly Bearish; Monthly - Bullish
• RSI: Neutral on weekly and monthly charts
• Bollinger Bands: Weekly - Mildly Bearish; Monthly - Bullish
• Moving Averages (Daily): Mildly Bullish
• KST: Weekly - Bearish; Monthly - Bullish
• Dow Theory: Mildly Bearish on weekly and monthly
• OBV: Weekly - No Trend; Monthly - Mildly Bearish
• Mojo Grade: Hold (down from Buy on 1 Feb 2026)

In conclusion, Bajaj Finance Ltd is navigating a complex technical environment with signs of emerging bullish momentum tempered by cautionary signals. Investors should remain attentive to evolving indicator confirmations and broader market conditions before committing to significant positions.

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