Key Events This Week
16 Feb: Stock opens strong at Rs.2,051.50 (+1.35%)
18 Feb: Open interest surges 13.3% amid mixed market signals
19 Feb: MarketsMOJO upgrades rating to Hold; sharp 18.3% open interest rise
20 Feb: Technical momentum shifts to mild bearishness; stock closes at Rs.2,057.95 (+1.20%)
16 February: Strong Opening with 1.35% Gain
Bajaj Finserv began the week on a positive note, closing at Rs.2,051.50, up 1.35% from the previous Friday’s close of Rs.2,024.20. This outpaced the Sensex’s 0.70% gain, signalling early bullish momentum. The volume of 37,250 shares indicated healthy participation, setting a confident tone for the week ahead.
18 February: Surge in Open Interest Amid Mixed Signals
On 18 February, the stock’s derivatives market saw a notable 13.3% increase in open interest, rising from 91,734 to 103,948 contracts. This surge accompanied a 0.78% price gain to Rs.2,060.60, despite the stock underperforming its sector and broader indices on the day. Delivery volumes increased by 4.09% over the five-day average, reflecting genuine investor interest beyond speculative trading.
The rising open interest alongside elevated volumes suggests fresh positions were being established, possibly indicating divergent views among traders. While some may have been hedging against near-term downside, others appeared to maintain bullish medium-term outlooks. The stock’s price remained above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, signalling a longer-term uptrend despite short-term consolidation.
While markets shift, this one's charging ahead! This Micro Cap from Aquaculture shows the strongest momentum signals in current conditions. Don't miss out on this ride!
- - Strongest current momentum
- - Market-cycle outperformer
- - Aquaculture sector strength
19 February: Rating Upgrade and Record Open Interest Surge
MarketsMOJO upgraded Bajaj Finserv’s rating from 'Sell' to 'Hold' on 18 February, reflecting improved technical outlook and steady fundamentals despite flat quarterly earnings. The upgrade was supported by a shift in technical momentum from mildly bearish to sideways, with mixed signals from MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, and moving averages.
On the same day, open interest surged sharply by 18.3% to 1,07,404 contracts, accompanied by a 1.36% price gain to Rs.2,061.00. Delivery volumes rose 25.64% over the five-day average, indicating strong investor participation. The stock outperformed its sector by 0.71% and the Sensex by 0.74%, trading above all key moving averages and signalling sustained positive momentum.
The derivatives activity suggested fresh long positions and bullish call buying, with institutional and retail traders actively engaging. The stock’s liquidity supported sizeable trades, enabling smooth execution of large orders without significant market impact.
20 February: Technical Momentum Shifts to Mildly Bearish
Despite closing the week at Rs.2,057.95 with a 1.20% gain on 20 February, Bajaj Finserv’s technical momentum shifted subtly from sideways to mildly bearish. The MACD indicator turned mildly bearish on weekly and monthly charts, while RSI remained neutral. Bollinger Bands showed mixed signals, with weekly readings mildly bearish and monthly readings bullish.
The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator was bearish weekly but bullish monthly, and Dow Theory assessments showed a mildly bullish weekly trend but mildly bearish monthly trend. On-Balance Volume (OBV) remained bullish, indicating ongoing accumulation despite short-term price softness.
This nuanced technical picture suggests cautious investor sentiment, with potential for consolidation or limited downside near-term. The stock’s historical outperformance relative to the Sensex, including a 10-year return exceeding 1,100%, underscores its resilience amid these shifts.
Holding Bajaj Finserv Ltd from ? See if there's a smarter choice! SwitchER compares it with peers and suggests superior options across market caps and sectors!
- - Peer comparison ready
- - Superior options identified
- - Cross market-cap analysis
Daily Price Performance vs Sensex
| Date | Stock Price | Day Change | Sensex | Day Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Rs.2,051.50 | +1.35% | 36,787.89 | +0.70% |
| 2026-02-17 | Rs.2,044.60 | -0.34% | 36,904.38 | +0.32% |
| 2026-02-18 | Rs.2,060.60 | +0.78% | 37,062.35 | +0.43% |
| 2026-02-19 | Rs.2,033.60 | -1.31% | 36,523.88 | -1.45% |
| 2026-02-20 | Rs.2,057.95 | +1.20% | 36,674.32 | +0.41% |
Key Takeaways
Positive Signals: Bajaj Finserv outperformed the Sensex with a 1.67% weekly gain versus 0.39% for the benchmark, supported by strong delivery volumes and rising open interest in derivatives. The MarketsMOJO upgrade to Hold reflects stabilising technicals and solid long-term fundamentals, including a 5-year return of 101.90% and a 10-year return exceeding 1,100%. The stock’s trading above key moving averages on several days indicates sustained medium-term strength.
Cautionary Notes: Despite the overall positive trend, the stock experienced short-term technical weakness, with a shift to mildly bearish momentum on 20 February. Elevated debt-equity ratio of 5.13 times and flat recent quarterly earnings introduce financial caution. The mixed technical indicators, including bearish MACD and neutral RSI, suggest potential consolidation or limited upside near term. The premium valuation with a P/B ratio of 4.3 and PEG of 2.1 warrants careful monitoring.
Conclusion
Bajaj Finserv Ltd’s week was characterised by active market participation, technical shifts, and a cautious upgrade in rating that collectively shaped its modest outperformance. The surge in open interest and delivery volumes alongside price gains signals growing investor conviction, while mixed technical signals counsel prudence. The stock’s strong historical returns and improved mojo grade support a balanced view, suggesting that while immediate momentum may be subdued, the company remains fundamentally sound with potential for sustained performance over the medium to long term. Investors should continue to monitor derivatives activity, technical indicators, and fundamental developments to navigate this evolving landscape effectively.
Limited Period Only. Start at Rs. 9,999 - Get MojoOne for 1 Year + 3 Months FREE (60% Off) Get 71% Off →
