Price Movement and Market Context
The stock closed at ₹1,901.40 on 2 Feb 2026, down 2.66% from the previous close of ₹1,953.35. Intraday, it traded between ₹1,900.00 and ₹1,952.50, remaining below its 52-week high of ₹2,194.65 but comfortably above the 52-week low of ₹1,620.00. This recent price action highlights a retracement phase after a period of strong gains.
Comparatively, Bajaj Finserv’s returns have outpaced the Sensex over longer horizons, with a 1-year return of 8.56% versus Sensex’s 5.16%, and a remarkable 10-year return of 917.42% compared to Sensex’s 224.57%. However, in the short term, the stock has underperformed, posting a 1-month decline of 6.65% against the Sensex’s 4.67% fall, signalling near-term headwinds.
Technical Trend Analysis
The technical trend for Bajaj Finserv has shifted from mildly bullish to mildly bearish, reflecting a cautious outlook among traders. The weekly MACD indicator is bearish, signalling downward momentum, while the monthly MACD remains mildly bearish, suggesting that the longer-term trend is also under pressure but not decisively negative.
Conversely, the weekly RSI remains bullish, indicating that despite recent price drops, the stock is not yet oversold and may retain some buying interest. The monthly RSI, however, shows no clear signal, implying a neutral stance over the longer term.
Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are bearish, with price action likely testing the lower band, which often indicates increased volatility and potential downside risk. On the monthly scale, Bollinger Bands are sideways, reflecting consolidation and indecision among investors.
Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators
Daily moving averages present a mildly bullish picture, suggesting that short-term momentum remains somewhat positive despite recent declines. This divergence between daily and weekly/monthly indicators points to a complex technical landscape where short-term traders may find opportunities even as the broader trend weakens.
The KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator is bearish on the weekly chart and mildly bearish monthly, reinforcing the view of waning momentum. Dow Theory assessments align with this, showing mildly bearish signals on both weekly and monthly timeframes, indicating that the stock may be entering a corrective phase.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) shows no clear trend on either weekly or monthly charts, suggesting that volume is not confirming price moves decisively, which adds to the uncertainty.
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Mojo Score and Ratings Update
Bajaj Finserv’s MarketsMOJO score currently stands at 47.0, reflecting a Sell rating, downgraded from Hold as of 1 Feb 2026. This downgrade signals a deterioration in the stock’s technical and fundamental outlook, with the market cap grade at a low 1, indicating limited size advantage relative to peers.
The downgrade aligns with the technical indicators’ bearish tilt and recent price underperformance. Investors should note that the stock’s short-term weakness contrasts with its strong long-term performance, suggesting that the current phase may be a correction rather than a structural decline.
Comparative Performance and Sector Context
As a holding company, Bajaj Finserv operates in a sector that often exhibits resilience but can be sensitive to macroeconomic shifts and interest rate changes. The stock’s recent underperformance relative to the Sensex over the past month and year-to-date periods highlights sector-specific challenges and broader market volatility.
However, the company’s 3-year and 5-year returns of 41.47% and 118.04%, respectively, significantly outpace the Sensex’s 35.67% and 74.40%, underscoring its strong growth trajectory over the medium to long term.
Investor Implications and Outlook
Given the mixed technical signals, investors should approach Bajaj Finserv with caution. The mildly bearish weekly and monthly MACD and KST indicators suggest that momentum is weakening, while the bullish weekly RSI and mildly bullish daily moving averages indicate potential for short-term rebounds.
Traders may consider waiting for confirmation of trend direction before initiating new positions, especially given the absence of volume confirmation from OBV. Long-term investors might view current weakness as a buying opportunity, given the stock’s robust historical returns and sector positioning.
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Summary
Bajaj Finserv Ltd is currently navigating a technical inflection point, with momentum indicators signalling a shift towards bearishness on weekly and monthly timeframes. The stock’s recent price decline and downgrade to a Sell rating by MarketsMOJO reflect this cautious stance. However, mixed signals from RSI and moving averages suggest that short-term opportunities may exist amid the broader correction.
Investors should weigh the stock’s strong long-term performance against near-term technical challenges and consider broader market conditions before making investment decisions. Monitoring key indicators such as MACD, RSI, and volume trends will be crucial in assessing the stock’s next directional move.
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