Bajel Projects Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Market Signals

Technical Trend Overview and Price Movement

Bajel Projects closed at ₹165.35 on 18 Feb 2026, up 3.7% from the previous close of ₹159.45. The stock’s 52-week range remains wide, with a high of ₹262.00 and a low of ₹142.75, indicating significant volatility over the past year. The recent price uptick, however, has not yet translated into a definitive bullish reversal, as technical indicators continue to signal caution.

The technical trend has shifted from bearish to mildly bearish, suggesting a tentative easing of downward momentum but no clear confirmation of a sustained uptrend. This subtle change is reflected in the weekly Bollinger Bands, which remain mildly bearish, indicating that price volatility is still skewed towards the downside, albeit less aggressively than before.

MACD and RSI Signals

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish on the weekly timeframe, signalling that the stock’s momentum is still predominantly negative. The monthly MACD does not provide a clear signal, reflecting a lack of strong directional conviction over the longer term. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings suggests that while short-term momentum is weak, the longer-term trend remains uncertain.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings on both weekly and monthly charts show no definitive signal, hovering in neutral zones. This absence of RSI extremes indicates that Bajel Projects is neither overbought nor oversold, which aligns with the observed mild bearishness and suggests a consolidation phase rather than a decisive directional move.

Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators

Daily moving averages remain bearish, reinforcing the view that the stock is still in a downtrend on a short-term basis. The lack of a crossover above key moving averages such as the 50-day and 200-day SMA suggests that buyers have yet to gain control. This is a critical technical hurdle for Bajel Projects to overcome to signal a more sustained recovery.

Conversely, the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator on the weekly chart has turned mildly bullish, hinting at a potential shift in momentum. However, the monthly KST remains inconclusive, underscoring the mixed signals that investors face when analysing this stock’s technical profile.

Volume and Trend Confirmation

On-Balance Volume (OBV) readings on both weekly and monthly timeframes show no clear trend, indicating that volume is not confirming price movements decisively. This lack of volume support weakens the conviction behind recent price gains and suggests that any rallies may be vulnerable to reversal without stronger buying interest.

Dow Theory analysis also fails to identify a clear trend on weekly and monthly charts, further emphasising the stock’s current indecisiveness and the need for more definitive technical confirmation before a trend reversal can be confidently declared.

Comparative Performance Against Sensex

When compared to the benchmark Sensex, Bajel Projects has underperformed across multiple time horizons. Over the past week, the stock declined by 2.3%, while the Sensex fell by 0.98%. Over the last month, Bajel Projects posted a modest gain of 0.52%, slightly outperforming the Sensex’s 0.14% decline. Year-to-date, however, the stock has dropped 4.67%, lagging behind the Sensex’s 2.08% fall. Over the past year, Bajel Projects has declined 7.13%, contrasting sharply with the Sensex’s robust 9.81% gain.

This relative underperformance highlights the challenges Bajel Projects faces in regaining investor confidence and market share within the heavy electrical equipment sector, which itself is subject to cyclical pressures and capital expenditure trends.

Mojo Score and Ratings Update

MarketsMOJO assigns Bajel Projects a Mojo Score of 37.0, categorising it as a Sell. This represents an upgrade from a previous Strong Sell rating issued on 7 Oct 2025, reflecting a slight improvement in technical and fundamental metrics. The Market Cap Grade stands at 3, indicating a small-cap status with limited liquidity and market depth, which can contribute to price volatility and wider bid-ask spreads.

The upgrade from Strong Sell to Sell suggests that while the stock remains unattractive for aggressive buying, there may be some stabilisation underway. Investors should remain cautious and monitor for further technical confirmation before considering entry.

Outlook and Investor Considerations

Given the mixed technical signals, investors should approach Bajel Projects with a balanced perspective. The mildly bearish trend and bearish daily moving averages caution against expecting a swift recovery, while the mildly bullish weekly KST and improved Mojo grade hint at potential for a gradual turnaround.

Key resistance levels to watch include the recent intraday high of ₹169.20 and the 52-week midpoint near ₹202.50. Support is likely to be found around the 52-week low of ₹142.75. A sustained move above the 50-day moving average and a bullish crossover in MACD would be required to confirm a more positive momentum shift.

Investors should also consider sectoral dynamics in heavy electrical equipment, including government infrastructure spending, industrial demand, and raw material cost pressures, which will influence Bajel Projects’ operational performance and stock trajectory.

Conclusion

Bajel Projects Ltd remains in a technically challenging position, with a recent shift from strongly bearish to mildly bearish momentum. While some indicators such as the weekly KST and an improved Mojo grade suggest tentative stabilisation, the dominant signals from MACD, moving averages, and volume-based indicators counsel caution. The stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex and its small-cap status further complicate the outlook.

For investors, the current environment calls for patience and close monitoring of technical developments, particularly any sustained break above key moving averages and confirmation from momentum indicators. Until then, Bajel Projects is best regarded as a cautious Sell, with potential upside contingent on broader sectoral recovery and improved market sentiment.

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