Open Interest and Volume Dynamics
On 23 February 2026, BPCL's open interest in futures and options contracts rose sharply by 4,664 contracts, a 12.62% increase from the previous OI of 36,966 to 41,630. This notable expansion in OI was accompanied by a volume of 40,365 contracts, underscoring active trading interest. The futures segment alone accounted for a value of approximately ₹89,731.48 lakhs, while the options segment's notional value was substantially higher at ₹21,012.28 crores, culminating in a total derivatives value of ₹91,419.20 lakhs.
This surge in OI, coupled with elevated volumes, suggests that market participants are increasingly positioning themselves in BPCL derivatives, potentially anticipating directional moves in the underlying equity.
Price Performance and Technical Context
BPCL's underlying stock price closed at ₹372, having touched an intraday high of ₹376.7, marking a 2.84% gain on the day. This performance outpaced the Oil sector's 0.33% gain and the Sensex's 0.44% rise, highlighting relative strength. The stock reversed its prior two-day decline, signalling a potential trend reversal.
Technically, BPCL trades above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, indicating a sustained medium- to long-term uptrend. However, it remains below its 5-day and 20-day moving averages, suggesting some short-term consolidation or resistance. The rising delivery volume of 41.88 lakh shares on 20 February, a 176.25% increase over the five-day average, further confirms growing investor conviction in the stock.
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Market Positioning and Directional Bets
The increase in open interest alongside rising volumes typically indicates fresh positions being taken rather than existing ones being squared off. In BPCL's case, the 12.62% OI growth suggests that traders and institutional investors are building new exposures, likely anticipating an upward price movement given the stock’s recent outperformance and technical setup.
Options data reveals a substantial notional value in the options segment, which may imply active hedging or speculative strategies. The elevated futures value also points to strong directional bets, with market participants possibly positioning for a continuation of the recent rally or a breakout above short-term resistance levels.
Fundamental and Valuation Considerations
BPCL remains a large-cap heavyweight in the Oil sector with a market capitalisation of ₹1,60,872 crores. The company offers a high dividend yield of 6.16%, which adds to its appeal for income-focused investors amid volatile markets. Its liquidity profile supports sizeable trades, with the stock able to absorb trade sizes of up to ₹2.99 crores based on 2% of the five-day average traded value, ensuring smooth execution for institutional players.
MarketsMOJO’s latest assessment upgraded BPCL’s Mojo Grade from Buy to Strong Buy on 8 January 2026, reflecting improved fundamentals and positive technical momentum. The Mojo Score stands at a robust 80.0, signalling strong conviction among analysts and market participants alike.
Sector and Broader Market Context
The Oil sector has been under pressure due to global crude price fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainties. BPCL’s relative outperformance by 1.33% over its sector peers on the day indicates resilience and potential sector rotation favouring select large-cap oil stocks. The Sensex’s modest 0.44% gain on the same day further highlights BPCL’s strength within the broader market.
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Implications for Investors
The sharp rise in open interest and volume in BPCL derivatives signals increased market confidence and a potential bullish bias. Investors should monitor the stock’s ability to sustain gains above short-term moving averages and watch for any shifts in options open interest that might indicate changing sentiment.
Given the strong dividend yield, solid market capitalisation, and upgraded Mojo Grade, BPCL remains an attractive proposition for both growth and income investors. However, caution is warranted amid broader oil price volatility and geopolitical risks that could impact sector performance.
Overall, the current market positioning suggests that traders are favouring BPCL as a key beneficiary of any positive developments in the oil sector and domestic refining environment.
Conclusion
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd’s recent surge in open interest and trading volumes in the derivatives market reflects a clear shift towards bullish market positioning. Supported by strong price action, rising delivery volumes, and an upgraded analyst rating, BPCL is poised for potential upside in the near term. Investors should keep a close eye on technical levels and sector dynamics to capitalise on emerging opportunities while managing risks prudently.
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