Bharat Petroleum Sees Significant Open Interest Surge Signalling Bullish Market Positioning

Open Interest and Volume Dynamics

The latest data reveals that BPCL’s open interest (OI) in derivatives rose sharply to 36,967 contracts from 33,501 previously, marking an increase of 3,466 contracts or 10.35%. This surge in OI is accompanied by a substantial volume of 21,962 contracts traded, indicating active participation from both institutional and retail investors. The futures value stood at ₹66,842.06 lakhs, while the options segment exhibited an even larger notional value of ₹8,950.65 crores, underscoring the significant interest in BPCL’s derivatives.

Such a rise in open interest alongside strong volume typically suggests fresh positions being initiated rather than existing ones being squared off. This pattern often points to a directional bias, with market participants positioning for a potential price move. Given BPCL’s underlying value at ₹357 and its recent price action, the data hints at bullish sentiment prevailing in the derivatives market.

Price Performance and Technical Context

BPCL’s stock price opened with a gap up of 2.53% and touched an intraday high of ₹359.90, a 3.08% rise on the day, outperforming the Oil sector by 2.24%. The stock’s 1-day return of 2.25% contrasts with the sector’s marginal decline of 0.05% and a flat Sensex, highlighting its relative strength. Technically, BPCL is trading above its 5-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, though it remains below the 20-day and 50-day averages, suggesting a short-term consolidation phase within a longer-term uptrend.

Investor participation is also on the rise, with delivery volumes reaching 30.75 lakh shares on 23 Jan, a 0.77% increase over the 5-day average. This indicates that more investors are holding shares rather than trading intraday, a positive sign for sustained price support. Additionally, BPCL offers a healthy dividend yield of 5.01%, enhancing its appeal to income-focused investors.

Market Positioning and Directional Bets

The increase in open interest, coupled with rising volumes, suggests that traders are actively building positions in BPCL derivatives, likely anticipating further upside. The futures and options data imply that both call and put options are being actively traded, but the net increase in OI and the stock’s positive price action point towards a predominance of bullish bets.

Market participants appear to be positioning for a continuation of the recent rally, supported by improving fundamentals and sector tailwinds. The Oil sector, while volatile, is benefiting from stable crude prices and government policy support, factors that enhance BPCL’s earnings visibility. The company’s large market capitalisation of ₹1,53,735 crore and strong liquidity profile, with a tradable size of approximately ₹3.96 crore based on 2% of the 5-day average traded value, make it an attractive option for institutional investors seeking exposure to the energy space.

Mojo Score Upgrade Reflects Positive Outlook

Reflecting this optimistic stance, MarketsMOJO has upgraded BPCL’s Mojo Grade from Buy to Strong Buy as of 8 Jan 2026, with a robust Mojo Score of 80.0. This upgrade is underpinned by improved financial metrics, favourable sector dynamics, and technical strength. The Market Cap Grade remains at 1, indicating the company’s large-cap status and stable market presence.

Such an upgrade often encourages further investor interest, reinforcing the positive feedback loop between price appreciation and market sentiment. The combination of strong fundamentals, technical support, and rising derivatives activity positions BPCL as a compelling stock for investors seeking growth in the oil sector.

Implications for Investors

For investors, the surge in open interest and volume in BPCL derivatives signals a potential opportunity to capitalise on the stock’s upward momentum. The strong dividend yield of 5.01% adds an income component, making the stock attractive for both growth and yield-oriented portfolios. However, investors should remain mindful of broader market volatility and crude oil price fluctuations, which can impact the sector’s performance.

Given the stock’s technical positioning—trading above key long-term moving averages but below some short-term averages—there may be short-term consolidation before a sustained breakout. The rising delivery volumes suggest that long-term holders are accumulating, which could provide a solid base for future gains.

Conclusion

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd’s recent open interest surge in derivatives, combined with strong volume and positive price action, reflects growing bullish sentiment and market confidence. The upgrade to a Strong Buy rating by MarketsMOJO further validates the stock’s favourable outlook. Investors looking for exposure to the oil sector should monitor BPCL closely as it demonstrates both fundamental strength and technical resilience amid evolving market conditions.

Unlock special upgrade rates for a limited period. Start Saving Now →