Chambal Fertilisers Declines 1.17% Amid Mixed Technicals and Valuation Shifts

Monday, 19 January 2026: Start of Week with Technical and Valuation Upgrade

Chambal Fertilisers began the week with a MarketsMOJO upgrade from Sell to Hold, reflecting improved technical indicators and valuation metrics. Despite the stock closing at Rs.438.40, down 0.51% on the day, the upgrade signalled stabilisation after a prolonged downtrend. Technical indicators such as weekly MACD and KST oscillators turned mildly bullish, while monthly indicators remained cautiously bearish. The valuation grade shifted from attractive to fair, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.45, modestly lower than peers but no longer a bargain.

Financially, the company showed strong quarterly performance with net sales rising 47.55% to Rs.6,412.76 crore and PBDIT reaching Rs.841.73 crore. Return on capital employed (ROCE) stood at a robust 24.47%, supporting the Hold rating despite subdued long-term growth trends.

Tuesday, 20 January 2026: Mixed Technical Momentum Amid Market Volatility

The stock declined further to Rs.430.60 (-1.78%), underperforming the Sensex’s sharper fall of 1.82%. Technical momentum showed a subtle shift from bearish to mildly bearish, with daily moving averages still bearish and Bollinger Bands indicating ongoing volatility. Weekly MACD was mildly bullish, but monthly MACD remained bearish, reflecting conflicting signals across timeframes. Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered neutrally, suggesting consolidation rather than directional conviction.

Volume was moderate at 25,481 shares, and On-Balance Volume (OBV) showed no clear trend, indicating lack of strong buying or selling pressure. The stock’s 52-week range remained wide, with the price closer to the lower bound of Rs.410.15 than the high of Rs.742.45.

Wednesday, 21 January 2026: Bearish Momentum Gains Ground

On 21 January, Chambal Fertilisers faced intensified bearish momentum, closing at Rs.421.05, down 2.22%. This decline outpaced the Sensex’s modest 0.47% fall, signalling increased selling pressure. Technical indicators deteriorated with the overall trend shifting from mildly bearish to bearish. Daily moving averages remained below the stock price, and Bollinger Bands confirmed a downward bias. The KST oscillator turned bearish weekly and mildly bearish monthly, reinforcing the negative outlook.

Despite the bearish signals, weekly MACD remained mildly bullish, suggesting some short-term resilience. RSI readings stayed neutral, indicating no oversold conditions yet. Volume surged to 64,754 shares, but OBV failed to confirm strong directional conviction. The stock’s year-to-date return worsened to -10.92%, underperforming the Sensex’s -3.57%.

Thursday, 22 January 2026: Valuation Attractiveness Returns Amid Price Pressure

Despite the recent price weakness, valuation metrics improved notably on 22 January. Chambal Fertilisers’ price-to-earnings ratio dropped to 9.06, making it attractively valued relative to sector peers such as Deepak Fertilisers (P/E 14.88) and Chemicals (P/E 13.85). The price-to-book value stood at 1.71, supported by a strong return on equity of 18.93%. The EV/EBITDA ratio of 6.31 further underscored the stock’s discount to industry averages.

This valuation shift coincided with a modest price recovery to Rs.427.05 (+1.43%), outperforming the Sensex’s 0.76% gain. The company’s PEG ratio of 0.43 and ROCE of 24.47% highlighted operational efficiency and growth potential despite sector headwinds. The Mojo Grade upgrade to Hold remained intact, reflecting a balanced view of risk and opportunity.

Friday, 23 January 2026: Strong Rebound Amid Sensex Decline

Chambal Fertilisers closed the week on a positive note, rising 1.98% to Rs.435.50, while the Sensex declined 1.33% to 35,609.90. This rebound was supported by heavy volume of 149,766 shares, indicating renewed investor interest. The stock’s outperformance against the broader market capped a volatile week marked by technical shifts and valuation reassessments.

Despite the weekly loss of 1.17%, Chambal Fertilisers outperformed the Sensex’s 3.31% decline, reflecting relative resilience. The stock’s technical indicators remain mixed, with short-term momentum improving but longer-term trends still cautious. Valuation attractiveness and strong profitability metrics provide a foundation for stability amid sector challenges.

Key Takeaways

Positive Signals: The upgrade to Hold by MarketsMOJO on 19 January reflected improved technical momentum and a more balanced valuation profile. Strong quarterly financials with a 47.55% rise in net sales and robust ROCE of 24.47% underpin operational strength. The stock’s valuation became more attractive by week’s end, with a P/E ratio of 9.06 and EV/EBITDA of 6.31, discounting some sector risks.

Cautionary Notes: Despite short-term technical improvements, longer-term indicators remain mildly bearish, with daily moving averages and Bollinger Bands signalling ongoing downward pressure. The stock underperformed the Sensex year-to-date and over the past year, reflecting sector headwinds and market volatility. Volume trends lacked strong directional confirmation, suggesting consolidation rather than decisive moves.

Market Context: Chambal Fertilisers outperformed the Sensex’s 3.31% weekly decline by falling only 1.17%, highlighting relative resilience amid a challenging market environment. The stock’s wide 52-week price range and recent volatility underscore the need for cautious monitoring of momentum and valuation signals.

Conclusion

Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals Ltd’s week was characterised by a nuanced interplay of technical shifts, valuation reassessments, and mixed price action. The upgrade to Hold and improved valuation metrics provide a foundation for stability, yet bearish technical indicators and recent underperformance caution against premature optimism. The stock’s relative outperformance versus the Sensex amid broader market weakness suggests it may be finding a floor, but investors should await clearer trend confirmation before expecting sustained recovery. Overall, Chambal Fertilisers remains a stock in transition, balancing operational strengths against sector challenges and market volatility.

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