Coforge Ltd Sees Sharp Open Interest Surge Amidst Weak Price Action

Open Interest and Volume Dynamics

On 12 Feb 2026, Coforge's open interest (OI) in derivatives rose from 70,792 contracts to 78,191 contracts, an increase of 7,399 contracts or 10.45%. This rise in OI accompanied a daily traded volume of 61,094 contracts, indicating heightened activity in the futures and options market. The futures segment alone accounted for a value of approximately ₹40,048 lakhs, while options contributed a staggering ₹30,906 crores in notional value, culminating in a total derivatives value of ₹46,300 lakhs. Such elevated participation suggests that traders are actively repositioning their portfolios amid recent price volatility.

Price Performance and Technical Context

Despite the surge in derivatives activity, Coforge's underlying share price underperformed significantly, closing near its intraday low of ₹1,433.20, down 5.74% on the day. The stock has been on a downward trajectory for two consecutive sessions, losing 7.48% cumulatively. It also lagged behind its sector peers, with the IT - Software sector declining by 4.09% and the broader Sensex falling a modest 0.36% on the same day. Notably, Coforge is trading below all key moving averages — 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day — signalling a bearish technical setup.

Investor Participation and Liquidity Considerations

Investor participation appears to be waning, with delivery volumes dropping sharply by 38.38% to 9.21 lakh shares on 11 Feb 2026 compared to the five-day average. This decline in delivery volume suggests reduced conviction among long-term holders, possibly reflecting profit-booking or cautious stance ahead of upcoming corporate events or macroeconomic developments. However, liquidity remains adequate for sizeable trades, with the stock's average traded value supporting transactions up to ₹6.93 crores comfortably.

Market Positioning and Potential Directional Bets

The simultaneous rise in open interest and decline in price often indicates that fresh short positions are being initiated, or that existing longs are being unwound. In Coforge's case, the 10.45% increase in OI alongside a 5.33% drop in price suggests that bearish bets are gaining traction. This is further corroborated by the weighted average price of traded volumes clustering near the day's low, implying selling pressure dominated the session.

Options market data, with an enormous notional value exceeding ₹30,900 crores, points to significant hedging and speculative activity. Traders may be employing put options to protect against further downside or engaging in complex strategies such as spreads and straddles to capitalise on expected volatility. The stock’s Mojo Score has been downgraded from a Buy to a Hold on 6 Feb 2026, reflecting a more cautious outlook amid deteriorating technicals and uncertain near-term fundamentals.

Sector and Broader Market Context

Coforge operates within the Computers - Software & Consulting industry, a sector that has recently faced headwinds due to global macroeconomic concerns and technology spending slowdowns. The sector’s 4.09% decline on the day underscores the challenging environment. Coforge’s market capitalisation stands at ₹48,552 crores, placing it firmly in the mid-cap category, where volatility can be more pronounced compared to large-cap peers.

Implications for Investors

For investors, the current derivatives activity signals a need for caution. The rising open interest amid falling prices suggests that downside momentum may persist in the short term. The stock’s technical weakness, combined with falling delivery volumes, indicates that long-term holders might be reducing exposure. However, the liquidity profile remains supportive of active trading, allowing nimble investors to exploit potential price swings.

Given the Hold rating and a Mojo Score of 50.0, investors should closely monitor upcoming earnings, sector developments, and global IT spending trends before committing fresh capital. Those with a higher risk appetite might consider tactical short positions or protective option strategies, while conservative investors may prefer to await clearer signs of a trend reversal.

Outlook and Conclusion

Coforge Ltd’s recent surge in open interest amidst a weakening price trend highlights a market grappling with uncertainty and shifting sentiment. The derivatives market activity points to increased bearish positioning, while the stock’s technical indicators and falling delivery volumes reinforce a cautious stance. Investors should weigh these factors carefully, balancing the potential for further downside against the stock’s fundamental strengths and sector prospects.

As the IT sector navigates a challenging macroeconomic landscape, Coforge’s performance will likely remain sensitive to broader technology spending trends and global economic cues. Monitoring open interest trends, volume patterns, and price action will be crucial for anticipating the stock’s next directional move.

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