Key Events This Week
16 Feb: Positive quarterly financial trend reported amid market challenges
16 Feb: Technical downgrade to Sell rating signals bearish momentum
18 Feb: Technical momentum shifts to mildly bearish despite intraday gains
20 Feb: Bearish momentum intensifies with further price decline
16 February: Positive Quarterly Financial Trend Amidst Market Challenges
Confidence Petroleum India Ltd reported a significant improvement in quarterly revenue, reaching a record net sales figure of ₹1,393.88 crores for the quarter ended December 2025. This marked a positive shift from a previously flat trend, with the company’s financial trend score improving from 6 to 10 over the past three months. Despite this, profitability metrics showed a decline, with profit before tax excluding other income falling by 8.2% compared to the prior four-quarter average. The stock closed at Rs.32.30, down 1.22% on the day, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid mixed fundamentals.
Alongside the fundamental update, the stock faced a technical downgrade from Hold to Sell, with the Mojo Score dropping to 46.0. This downgrade was accompanied by bearish signals from key technical indicators, including a bearish monthly MACD and weakening momentum oscillators. The stock’s 52-week range remained wide, underscoring ongoing volatility.
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17 February: Stock Gains 4.06% Amid Positive Market Sentiment
The stock rebounded strongly on 17 February, closing at Rs.33.61, up 4.06% on the day, outperforming the Sensex’s 0.32% gain. This intraday strength reflected short-term buying interest possibly driven by the positive quarterly revenue report. However, the volume was relatively low at 27,410 shares, suggesting limited conviction behind the rally. Despite this uptick, technical indicators remained mixed, with the monthly MACD still bearish and moving averages continuing to act as resistance.
18 February: Technical Momentum Shifts to Mildly Bearish Despite 3.9% Gain
On 18 February, Confidence Petroleum closed at Rs.33.41, down 0.60% from the previous day’s close, after an intraday high of Rs.33.75. The stock’s technical momentum shifted from outright bearish to mildly bearish, reflecting a tentative improvement but still lacking strong bullish conviction. The weekly MACD was mildly bullish, while the monthly MACD remained bearish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered in neutral territory, indicating no clear directional bias. Bollinger Bands and moving averages continued to signal bearish underpinnings, with the stock trading below key averages.
19 February: Sharp Decline of 3.59% on Increased Selling Pressure
The stock experienced a sharp decline on 19 February, closing at Rs.32.21, down 3.59% on the day, amid a significant drop in the Sensex by 1.45%. This decline was accompanied by increased volume of 66,036 shares, indicating stronger selling pressure. Technical indicators deteriorated further, with moving averages firmly bearish and the stock price hugging the lower Bollinger Band. The monthly MACD and KST oscillators remained bearish, reinforcing the negative momentum.
20 February: Bearish Momentum Intensifies with Further Price Decline
On the final trading day of the week, Confidence Petroleum closed at Rs.31.69, down 1.61%, continuing the downward trend. The stock’s technical momentum shifted from mildly bearish to outright bearish, with daily moving averages confirming persistent selling pressure. Despite a mildly bullish weekly MACD and On-Balance Volume (OBV), the monthly indicators remained negative. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stayed neutral, suggesting the stock was neither oversold nor overbought, leaving room for further downside. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week low of Rs.30.00 highlighted the ongoing challenges faced by the company.
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| Date | Stock Price | Day Change | Sensex | Day Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Rs.32.30 | -1.22% | 36,787.89 | +0.70% |
| 2026-02-17 | Rs.33.61 | +4.06% | 36,904.38 | +0.32% |
| 2026-02-18 | Rs.33.41 | -0.60% | 37,062.35 | +0.43% |
| 2026-02-19 | Rs.32.21 | -3.59% | 36,523.88 | -1.45% |
| 2026-02-20 | Rs.31.69 | -1.61% | 36,674.32 | +0.41% |
Key Takeaways
Positive Revenue Growth Amidst Profitability Challenges: The company’s record quarterly revenue of ₹1,393.88 crores signals operational strength despite sector headwinds. However, declining profitability and rising debt-equity ratio to 0.60 times warrant caution.
Technical Indicators Signal Bearish Momentum: The downgrade to a Sell rating and bearish monthly MACD, KST, and moving averages indicate sustained downward pressure. Short-term weekly indicators show mild bullishness but are insufficient to reverse the trend.
Underperformance Relative to Sensex: The stock declined 3.09% over the week while the Sensex gained 0.39%, continuing a pattern of underperformance over multiple time horizons.
Volatility and Proximity to 52-Week Low: Trading near its 52-week low of Rs.30.00, the stock remains vulnerable to further downside amid uncertain market and sector conditions.
Conclusion
Confidence Petroleum India Ltd’s week was marked by a complex interplay of positive fundamental developments and deteriorating technical momentum. While the company’s quarterly revenue growth offers a glimmer of operational resilience, the decline in profitability and rising leverage, combined with bearish technical signals, have weighed heavily on the stock price. The stock’s consistent underperformance relative to the Sensex and its proximity to the 52-week low underscore the challenges ahead. Investors should remain cautious and monitor both fundamental and technical indicators closely before considering new positions in this volatile environment.
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