Technical Trend Shift and Price Movement
Dhampur Sugar’s share price closed at ₹117.75 on 16 Feb 2026, down 0.88% from the previous close of ₹118.80. The stock traded within a range of ₹115.80 to ₹119.00 during the day, remaining closer to its 52-week low of ₹108.85 than its high of ₹161.95. This price action underscores the stock’s struggle to regain upward momentum amid broader sectoral pressures.
The technical trend has shifted from mildly bearish to outright bearish, signalling increased selling pressure. Daily moving averages confirm this negative bias, with the stock trading below its short-term and medium-term averages, indicating a lack of immediate buying interest. The downward slope of these averages further reinforces the bearish outlook.
MACD and Momentum Indicators
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD remains bearish, reflecting sustained downward momentum over recent weeks. However, the monthly MACD is mildly bullish, suggesting some longer-term underlying strength that has yet to translate into price gains. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings highlights the stock’s current technical uncertainty.
The KST (Know Sure Thing) indicator aligns with this view, showing bearish momentum on the weekly chart but a mildly bullish stance monthly. Such conflicting signals often indicate consolidation phases or potential volatility ahead, requiring investors to exercise caution.
RSI and Bollinger Bands Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes currently offers no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This suggests the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for either a rebound or further decline depending on market catalysts.
Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are bearish, with the price approaching the lower band, indicating increased volatility and potential downside risk. The monthly Bollinger Bands also lean mildly bearish, reinforcing the cautious stance. The proximity to the lower band may attract short-term buyers, but the overall trend remains negative.
Volume and On-Balance Volume (OBV) Insights
Volume trends provide additional context to the price action. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator is mildly bullish on a weekly basis, suggesting that despite price declines, accumulation may be occurring among some investors. Conversely, the monthly OBV is mildly bearish, indicating that over a longer horizon, selling pressure dominates. This divergence between volume and price trends further complicates the technical outlook.
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Dow Theory and Broader Market Comparison
According to Dow Theory, Dhampur Sugar shows no clear trend on a weekly basis, while the monthly trend is mildly bearish. This lack of a definitive trend signal suggests the stock is in a phase of indecision, vulnerable to external market influences.
Comparing Dhampur Sugar’s returns with the Sensex reveals underperformance across multiple timeframes. Over the past week, the stock declined by 0.21%, while the Sensex fell 1.14%, indicating relative resilience in the very short term. However, over one month, the stock’s loss of 1.22% slightly exceeds the Sensex’s 1.20% decline. Year-to-date, Dhampur Sugar has dropped 4.54%, underperforming the Sensex’s 3.04% fall.
Longer-term returns paint a more concerning picture. Over one year, the stock has plunged 15.10%, contrasting sharply with the Sensex’s 8.52% gain. Over three and five years, Dhampur Sugar’s returns are deeply negative at -44.51% and -29.07% respectively, while the Sensex has delivered robust gains of 36.73% and 60.30%. Even over a decade, the stock’s 112.74% appreciation lags significantly behind the Sensex’s 259.46% rise.
Mojo Score and Rating Downgrade
Reflecting these technical and fundamental challenges, Dhampur Sugar’s Mojo Score stands at 46.0, categorised as a Sell. This represents a downgrade from the previous Hold rating on 13 Feb 2026, signalling a deterioration in the stock’s quality and outlook. The Market Cap Grade remains low at 4, consistent with the company’s mid-cap status and limited market liquidity.
Investors should note that the downgrade is driven primarily by weakening price momentum and bearish technical indicators, rather than sudden fundamental shifts. The sugar industry’s cyclical nature and commodity price volatility continue to weigh on Dhampur Sugar’s performance.
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Investor Takeaway and Outlook
Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd currently faces a challenging technical landscape. The convergence of bearish daily moving averages, weekly MACD and Bollinger Bands, alongside a downgraded Mojo Grade, suggests that the stock is likely to remain under pressure in the near term. The absence of strong RSI signals and mixed volume indicators imply that any recovery may be tentative and short-lived without a fundamental catalyst.
Investors should weigh the stock’s historical underperformance against the broader market and sector peers before committing fresh capital. The sugar industry’s inherent volatility and Dhampur’s recent technical deterioration warrant a cautious approach, favouring risk management and portfolio diversification.
Long-term investors may monitor monthly MACD and KST indicators for signs of stabilisation or reversal, but current signals advise prudence. Those holding the stock should consider re-evaluating their positions in light of the recent downgrade and technical weakness.
Summary of Key Technical Indicators for Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd
- Current Price: ₹117.75 (16 Feb 2026)
- Daily Moving Averages: Bearish
- Weekly MACD: Bearish; Monthly MACD: Mildly Bullish
- RSI (Weekly & Monthly): No clear signal
- Bollinger Bands (Weekly): Bearish; (Monthly): Mildly Bearish
- KST (Weekly): Bearish; (Monthly): Mildly Bullish
- Dow Theory (Weekly): No Trend; (Monthly): Mildly Bearish
- OBV (Weekly): Mildly Bullish; (Monthly): Mildly Bearish
- Mojo Score: 46.0 (Sell), downgraded from Hold on 13 Feb 2026
Given these factors, Dhampur Sugar Mills Ltd remains a stock to watch closely, with technical momentum currently skewed towards the downside.
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