Excel Industries Ltd Sees Mixed Technical Signals Amid Price Momentum Shift

Price Momentum and Recent Market Performance

On 6 February 2026, Excel Industries Ltd closed at ₹983.55, marking a significant increase from the previous close of ₹915.95. The stock traded within a range of ₹926.75 to ₹997.20 during the day, demonstrating intraday volatility but ultimately a strong upward move. This price action represents a 7.38% gain on the day, outpacing the broader market’s modest gains.

However, when viewed over longer periods, the stock’s performance reveals a more mixed picture. Year-to-date, Excel Industries has returned 5.31%, outperforming the Sensex which declined by 2.24% over the same period. Over one month, the stock gained 3.50% while the Sensex fell 2.49%. Yet, over the one-year horizon, Excel Industries has declined sharply by 27.14%, contrasting with the Sensex’s 6.44% gain. This divergence underscores the stock’s recent recovery amid a challenging longer-term backdrop.

Technical Trend Shift: From Bearish to Mildly Bearish

The technical trend for Excel Industries has shifted from a clear bearish stance to a mildly bearish one, signalling a tentative improvement in market sentiment. This subtle change is reflected in the daily moving averages, which remain mildly bearish but show signs of stabilisation. The stock price currently trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating that while the downtrend is not fully reversed, the pace of decline has moderated.

On the weekly chart, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned mildly bullish, suggesting that momentum may be building for a potential upward move. Conversely, the monthly MACD remains bearish, indicating that the longer-term trend is still under pressure. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings highlights the stock’s current technical uncertainty.

RSI and Bollinger Bands: Neutral to Mildly Bearish Signals

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes currently offers no clear signal, hovering in neutral territory. This suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for either a continuation of the recent rally or a reversal.

Bollinger Bands, which measure volatility and potential price extremes, indicate a mildly bearish stance on both weekly and monthly charts. The stock price is approaching the upper band on the daily scale, which may act as resistance and could limit further near-term gains. The mildly bearish Bollinger Band readings align with the cautious tone set by the moving averages and MACD.

KST and Dow Theory: Conflicting Weekly and Monthly Signals

The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator, which aggregates multiple rate-of-change measures, is mildly bullish on the weekly timeframe but bearish on the monthly chart. This split suggests that short-term momentum is improving, but the longer-term trend remains under strain.

Similarly, Dow Theory analysis reveals mildly bullish signals on the weekly scale, indicating potential accumulation phases, while monthly readings remain mildly bearish, reflecting ongoing caution among longer-term investors.

On-Balance Volume and Market Cap Considerations

On-Balance Volume (OBV) readings for Excel Industries show no clear trend on either weekly or monthly charts, implying that volume is not currently confirming price moves. This lack of volume confirmation tempers enthusiasm for the recent price gains and suggests that investor conviction remains tentative.

From a market capitalisation perspective, Excel Industries holds a grade of 3, indicating a mid-sized company within the Specialty Chemicals sector. The company’s Mojo Score has recently deteriorated to 28.0, resulting in a downgrade from a Sell to a Strong Sell rating as of 13 October 2025. This downgrade reflects concerns over the company’s fundamental and technical outlooks.

Comparative Returns and Sector Context

When compared with the broader Sensex index, Excel Industries’ returns have been mixed. While the stock has outperformed the Sensex in the short term, its longer-term returns lag significantly. Over the past three years, Excel Industries has declined by 9.38%, whereas the Sensex has surged 36.94%. Over five and ten-year periods, the stock’s returns of 16.44% and 427.09% respectively, while impressive, still trail the Sensex’s 64.22% and 238.44% gains.

This performance gap highlights the challenges faced by Excel Industries in maintaining consistent growth relative to the broader market and its sector peers.

Outlook and Investor Considerations

Investors analysing Excel Industries Ltd should weigh the mixed technical signals carefully. The mildly bullish weekly MACD and KST indicators suggest potential for short-term gains, supported by the recent strong daily price performance. However, the persistent bearish monthly indicators, neutral RSI, and lack of volume confirmation caution against over-optimism.

The downgrade to a Strong Sell Mojo Grade further emphasises the need for prudence, signalling that the company faces significant headwinds. The stock’s position below key moving averages and the mildly bearish Bollinger Bands reinforce the view that any rally may be limited or short-lived without stronger fundamental catalysts.

Given the divergence between short-term momentum and longer-term trends, investors may consider monitoring key technical levels closely, including the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, as well as the upper Bollinger Band near ₹1,000. A sustained break above these levels could signal a more definitive trend reversal.

Conversely, failure to hold recent gains may see the stock retest support near its 52-week low of ₹798.50, which would confirm the ongoing bearish pressure.

In summary, Excel Industries Ltd currently presents a complex technical picture with cautious optimism tempered by longer-term bearishness. Investors should remain vigilant and consider alternative opportunities within the Specialty Chemicals sector and broader market.

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