Fertilizers & Chemicals Travancore Ltd Technical Momentum Shifts Amid Mixed Market Signals

Technical Trend Overview

The stock’s technical trend has transitioned from a clear bearish stance to a mildly bearish one, signalling a tentative stabilisation but no definitive reversal. The daily moving averages remain bearish, indicating that short-term momentum is still under pressure. FACT’s current price stands at ₹802.00, down 1.22% from the previous close of ₹811.90, with intraday trading ranging between ₹799.50 and ₹818.95.

MACD and Momentum Indicators

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mixed picture. On a weekly basis, the MACD remains bearish, suggesting that downward momentum is still dominant in the near term. However, the monthly MACD has softened to mildly bearish, hinting at a potential easing of selling pressure over a longer horizon. This divergence between weekly and monthly MACD readings underscores the stock’s current technical uncertainty.

RSI and Overbought/Oversold Conditions

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts currently shows no clear signal, hovering in a neutral zone. This lack of extreme RSI readings suggests that FACT is neither overbought nor oversold, which aligns with the mildly bearish technical trend. Investors should watch for any RSI movement beyond the 70 or 30 thresholds, which could indicate a stronger directional shift.

Bollinger Bands and Price Volatility

Bollinger Bands analysis reveals a mildly bearish stance on the weekly chart and a bearish outlook on the monthly chart. The stock price is trading near the lower band on the monthly scale, indicating increased volatility and potential downside risk. This technical setup often precedes either a rebound or further decline, depending on broader market conditions and sector performance.

Other Technical Indicators

The Know Sure Thing (KST) oscillator remains bearish on a weekly basis and mildly bearish monthly, reinforcing the cautious tone. Conversely, the Dow Theory presents a mildly bullish signal weekly but mildly bearish monthly, reflecting short-term optimism tempered by longer-term concerns. On-Balance Volume (OBV) is a notable positive, showing bullish readings on both weekly and monthly charts, which suggests accumulation by investors despite price weakness.

Comparative Performance and Market Context

FACT’s recent returns lag behind the benchmark Sensex over short-term periods. The stock declined 0.67% over the past week and 3.79% over the last month, while the Sensex gained 0.20% in the same month. Year-to-date, FACT has fallen 12.12%, significantly underperforming the Sensex’s 1.74% gain. However, the company’s long-term performance remains robust, with a 5-year return of 898.75% compared to the Sensex’s 63.15%, and an extraordinary 10-year return of 4,034.02% versus 254.07% for the benchmark.

Mojo Score and Ratings Update

MarketsMOJO has recently downgraded FACT’s Mojo Grade from Sell to Strong Sell as of 22 Dec 2025, reflecting deteriorating technical and fundamental outlooks. The current Mojo Score stands at 27.0, a low figure signalling weak momentum and poor quality metrics. The Market Cap Grade is 2, indicating a mid-cap status but with limited market strength. This downgrade aligns with the bearish technical signals and the stock’s underperformance relative to the broader market.

Sector and Industry Considerations

Operating within the Fertilizers industry and sector, FACT faces sector-specific headwinds including fluctuating input costs, regulatory changes, and commodity price volatility. These factors contribute to the mixed technical signals and cautious investor sentiment. The stock’s 52-week high of ₹1,111.00 and low of ₹565.20 illustrate significant price swings, underscoring the sector’s cyclical nature.

Moving Averages and Short-Term Outlook

Daily moving averages remain bearish, with the stock trading below key averages such as the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This technical positioning suggests that short-term price momentum is weak and that resistance levels may cap any near-term rallies. Investors should monitor whether FACT can break above these moving averages to signal a potential trend reversal.

Volume and Accumulation Trends

On-Balance Volume (OBV) readings are bullish on both weekly and monthly charts, indicating that despite price declines, buying interest persists. This accumulation could provide a foundation for a future recovery if accompanied by positive fundamental developments or sector tailwinds. However, the current technical environment advises caution, as volume alone does not guarantee an imminent price turnaround.

Investor Takeaway

Fertilizers & Chemicals Travancore Ltd’s technical indicators paint a nuanced picture. While the shift from bearish to mildly bearish trend suggests some easing of downward pressure, the prevailing signals remain cautious. The bearish daily moving averages and weekly MACD imply that short-term momentum is still weak, while the neutral RSI and bullish OBV hint at potential accumulation and a possible base formation.

Investors should weigh these mixed signals carefully, considering the stock’s strong long-term returns against recent underperformance and technical weakness. The downgrade to a Strong Sell rating by MarketsMOJO further emphasises the need for prudence. Monitoring key technical levels, such as moving averages and Bollinger Bands, alongside sector developments, will be critical in assessing the stock’s next directional move.

Conclusion

In summary, FACT remains a stock with impressive historical gains but currently faces technical headwinds that temper enthusiasm. The mildly bearish momentum and mixed indicator signals suggest that investors should adopt a cautious stance, focusing on risk management and waiting for clearer signs of trend reversal before committing fresh capital. The stock’s technical profile and recent rating downgrade underscore the importance of a disciplined approach in navigating this mid-cap fertilizer player’s evolving market dynamics.

Only Rs. 9,999 - Get MojoOne for 1 Year + 3 Months FREE (60% Off) Start Today