Gandhar Oil Refinery (India) Ltd Shows Technical Momentum Shift Amid Mixed Indicators

Technical Trend Overview and Price Movement

The stock closed at ₹173.10 on 7 Jan 2026, up 3.47% from the previous close of ₹167.30, with intraday highs reaching ₹179.00 and lows at ₹170.50. This price action marks a recovery phase after a period of subdued performance. Over the past week, Gandhar Oil Refinery has surged 16.72%, significantly outperforming the Sensex’s modest 0.46% gain. The one-month return is even more striking at 37.71%, contrasting with the Sensex’s 0.76% decline, signalling strong short-term momentum in the stock.

Despite this recent rally, the stock remains below its 52-week high of ₹219.65 and well above its 52-week low of ₹120.60, indicating a wide trading range and potential volatility. Year-to-date, the stock has gained 12.15%, while the Sensex has marginally declined by 0.18%. However, over the last year, Gandhar Oil Refinery has underperformed with an 18.25% loss compared to the Sensex’s 9.10% gain, highlighting mixed longer-term performance.

MACD and Momentum Indicators

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a mildly bullish signal on the weekly chart, suggesting that momentum is gradually shifting in favour of buyers. The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, a classic bullish crossover, which often precedes upward price movement. However, the monthly MACD remains neutral, indicating that longer-term momentum has yet to confirm a sustained uptrend.

RSI and Overbought/Oversold Conditions

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly timeframe remains bearish, signalling that the stock may still be under selling pressure or facing resistance in the short term. The RSI has not yet entered oversold or overbought territory, hovering in a neutral to slightly bearish zone. On the monthly scale, the RSI does not provide a clear signal, reflecting indecision among longer-term investors.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

Daily moving averages currently indicate a mildly bearish trend, with the stock price hovering near or slightly below key short-term averages. This suggests some caution among traders, as the stock has not decisively broken above these levels to confirm a robust uptrend. Conversely, Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are bullish, with the price approaching the upper band, indicating increased volatility and potential for a breakout. The monthly Bollinger Bands, however, are mildly bearish, reflecting a more cautious long-term outlook.

Volume and Trend Confirmation Indicators

On-Balance Volume (OBV) readings are bullish on both weekly and monthly charts, indicating that volume is supporting the recent price advances. This suggests accumulation by investors, which is a positive sign for sustaining upward momentum. The Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator also aligns with a mildly bullish weekly trend, reinforcing the notion of improving momentum in the near term.

Dow Theory and Broader Trend Analysis

According to Dow Theory, both weekly and monthly trends are mildly bullish, signalling that the stock may be entering a phase of higher highs and higher lows. This is a significant development given the prior mildly bearish technical stance. However, the daily moving averages’ mildly bearish indication tempers enthusiasm, suggesting that short-term corrections or consolidations could still occur.

Market Capitalisation and Mojo Score Insights

Gandhar Oil Refinery holds a Market Cap Grade of 3, reflecting a mid-tier market capitalisation within its sector. The company’s overall Mojo Score stands at 64.0, which has recently improved enough to warrant an upgrade from a Sell to a Hold rating as of 6 Jan 2026. This upgrade reflects a cautious but positive reassessment of the stock’s prospects based on both technical and fundamental factors.

Comparative Performance and Sector Context

While Gandhar Oil Refinery has demonstrated strong short-term returns, its longer-term performance remains challenged relative to the broader market. The Sensex has delivered a 42.01% return over three years and 76.57% over five years, whereas Gandhar Oil’s longer-term returns are not available for direct comparison but have lagged in the one-year timeframe. This divergence highlights the importance of monitoring both technical signals and fundamental developments within the oil sector, which is subject to commodity price fluctuations and regulatory dynamics.

Investor Takeaway and Outlook

Gandhar Oil Refinery’s recent technical momentum shift from mildly bearish to mildly bullish suggests a tentative recovery phase. The weekly MACD and KST indicators, combined with bullish OBV and Dow Theory signals, provide a foundation for cautious optimism. However, the bearish weekly RSI and mildly bearish daily moving averages counsel prudence, indicating that the stock may face resistance or consolidation in the near term.

Investors should weigh these mixed signals alongside the company’s fundamental profile and sector dynamics. The upgrade to a Hold rating and a Mojo Score of 64.0 reflect an improved but still moderate conviction in the stock’s prospects. Given the oil sector’s inherent volatility, monitoring price action relative to key technical levels and volume trends will be critical for timing entries and exits.

In summary, Gandhar Oil Refinery is exhibiting signs of technical recovery, supported by volume and momentum indicators, but remains vulnerable to short-term fluctuations. Investors with a medium-term horizon may find the current setup attractive for selective accumulation, while those with lower risk tolerance might prefer to await clearer confirmation of sustained bullish trends.

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