Technical Trend and Momentum Analysis
Over recent weeks, Gandhar Oil Refinery’s technical trend has shifted from a neutral sideways pattern to a mildly bearish trajectory. This change is reflected in the daily moving averages, which currently indicate a mildly bearish signal. The stock’s price is trading near ₹154.50, slightly above the previous close of ₹154.35, with intraday highs reaching ₹158.50 and lows at ₹153.75. However, the 52-week range remains wide, with a high of ₹222.80 and a low of ₹120.60, underscoring significant volatility over the past year.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a nuanced view. On the weekly chart, MACD remains mildly bullish, suggesting some underlying positive momentum in the medium term. Conversely, the monthly MACD does not provide a clear directional signal, indicating uncertainty over longer horizons. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes currently shows no definitive signal, hovering in neutral territory and implying neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
Bollinger Bands add further complexity: weekly readings are bullish, signalling potential upward price volatility and momentum, while monthly bands lean mildly bearish, hinting at longer-term pressure. The KST (Know Sure Thing) oscillator on the weekly scale is mildly bullish, reinforcing the short-term positive momentum, but the monthly KST remains inconclusive.
Volume and Dow Theory Insights
Volume-based indicators also provide mixed signals. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) on the weekly chart is bullish, suggesting accumulation and buying interest in the short term. However, the monthly OBV shows no clear trend, reflecting a lack of sustained volume support over longer periods. Dow Theory assessments align with these observations: weekly signals are mildly bullish, indicating short-term optimism, whereas monthly signals are bearish, pointing to caution for investors with a longer-term horizon.
Comparative Returns and Market Context
When analysing Gandhar Oil Refinery’s returns relative to the broader market, the stock has outperformed the Sensex in the short term but lagged significantly over the past year. Over the last week, the stock gained 4.67%, compared to a Sensex decline of 0.26%. The one-month return is even more impressive at 18.85%, while the Sensex fell by 0.53% in the same period. Year-to-date, the stock’s return is marginally positive at 0.1%, slightly ahead of the Sensex’s -0.04%.
However, the one-year performance paints a different picture, with Gandhar Oil Refinery down 28.47%, contrasting sharply with the Sensex’s 8.51% gain. This underperformance over the last year highlights the challenges the company has faced amid sectoral headwinds and broader market volatility. Longer-term returns for three, five, and ten years are not available for the stock, while the Sensex has delivered robust gains of 40.02%, 77.96%, and 225.63% respectively over these periods.
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Mojo Score and Rating Evolution
Gandhar Oil Refinery currently holds a Mojo Score of 54.0, placing it in the 'Hold' category. This represents an upgrade from its previous 'Sell' rating as of 31 Dec 2025, reflecting improved technical and fundamental assessments. The company’s market capitalisation grade stands at 3, indicating a mid-tier valuation relative to its peers in the oil sector. The upgrade in rating suggests that while the stock is not yet a strong buy, it has shown signs of stabilisation and potential for moderate gains, warranting cautious optimism among investors.
Sector and Industry Considerations
Operating within the oil industry, Gandhar Oil Refinery faces sector-specific challenges including fluctuating crude oil prices, regulatory changes, and global demand uncertainties. The oil sector has experienced volatility recently, influenced by geopolitical tensions and shifting energy policies. These external factors compound the technical signals observed in the stock, making it imperative for investors to weigh both macroeconomic and company-specific developments.
Technical Indicator Summary and Outlook
Summarising the technical indicators, the weekly MACD and KST oscillators provide a cautiously bullish tone, suggesting some short-term upside potential. However, the daily moving averages and monthly indicators lean towards a mildly bearish outlook, signalling possible resistance ahead. The neutral RSI readings imply that the stock is not currently overextended in either direction, allowing room for price movement based on upcoming catalysts.
Investors should monitor key support levels near the recent lows around ₹153 and resistance near the intraday high of ₹158.50. A sustained break above this resistance could validate the short-term bullish momentum, while a drop below support may confirm the emerging bearish trend. Volume trends, particularly the weekly OBV, will be critical in confirming the strength of any price moves.
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Investor Takeaway
Gandhar Oil Refinery’s recent technical parameter changes highlight a stock at a crossroads. While short-term momentum indicators suggest mild bullishness, longer-term signals caution investors about potential downside risks. The upgrade from a 'Sell' to a 'Hold' rating by MarketsMOJO reflects this balanced view, recommending investors maintain positions with vigilance rather than aggressive accumulation.
Given the stock’s underperformance relative to the Sensex over the past year and the mixed technical signals, investors should consider their risk tolerance carefully. Those seeking exposure to the oil sector might explore alternative stocks with stronger momentum and fundamentals, as identified by analytical tools such as SwitchER.
In conclusion, Gandhar Oil Refinery remains a stock to watch closely. Its technical indicators suggest a tentative recovery phase, but confirmation through price action and volume is essential before a more confident bullish stance can be adopted. Market participants should stay alert to sector developments and company-specific news that could influence the stock’s trajectory in the coming months.
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