The current price of GFL stands at ₹60.50, down from the previous close of ₹61.44, with intraday fluctuations ranging between ₹60.25 and ₹62.06. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has traded within a range of ₹47.25 to ₹109.11, indicating significant volatility. This price behaviour is underscored by a day change of -1.53%, reflecting ongoing market pressures.
Examining the technical trend, GFL has shifted from a mildly bullish posture to a sideways movement, signalling a period of consolidation. The weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains mildly bullish, suggesting some underlying positive momentum in the short term. However, the monthly MACD presents a bearish outlook, indicating that longer-term momentum may be under pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly timeframes currently shows no definitive signal, implying that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral RSI reading aligns with the sideways trend, suggesting a lack of strong directional conviction among traders.
Bollinger Bands, which measure volatility and potential price extremes, are bearish on both weekly and monthly charts. This suggests that price movements are constrained within lower volatility bands, potentially foreshadowing further sideways or downward pressure in the near term.
Daily moving averages maintain a mildly bullish stance, indicating that short-term price averages are still supporting some upward momentum. Contrastingly, the Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator shows a bullish signal on the weekly chart but turns bearish on the monthly scale, reinforcing the mixed technical picture.
Dow Theory analysis reveals no clear trend on the weekly timeframe, while the monthly perspective is mildly bearish. This divergence between short- and long-term trend assessments highlights the complexity of GFL’s current market position.
On-Balance Volume (OBV), a volume-based indicator used to confirm price trends, is mildly bearish on the weekly chart and shows no trend on the monthly chart. This suggests that volume patterns are not strongly supporting price advances, adding to the cautious technical outlook.
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Turning to returns, GFL’s stock performance has lagged significantly behind the Sensex across multiple time horizons. Over the past week, GFL recorded a return of -1.61%, while the Sensex gained 0.85%. The one-month return for GFL was -5.25%, compared to a 1.47% rise in the Sensex.
Year-to-date figures show a stark contrast, with GFL down by 30.42% against the Sensex’s 9.02% gain. Over the last year, GFL’s return was -37.69%, while the Sensex appreciated by 9.81%. Even over longer periods, GFL’s performance remains subdued, with a three-year return of -6.27% versus the Sensex’s 38.15%, a five-year return of -24.94% against 95.38%, and a ten-year return of -90.08% compared to the Sensex’s 229.64%.
These figures highlight the challenges faced by GFL in generating returns comparable to the broader market, underscoring the importance of closely monitoring technical indicators and market conditions for this holding company.
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In summary, GFL’s recent technical assessment reveals a nuanced picture. While short-term indicators such as the weekly MACD and daily moving averages suggest some mild bullish momentum, longer-term signals including the monthly MACD, Bollinger Bands, and Dow Theory point towards caution. The absence of clear RSI signals and mixed volume trends further complicate the outlook.
Investors analysing GFL should consider these technical nuances alongside the stock’s historical underperformance relative to the Sensex. The sideways trend may indicate a period of consolidation or indecision, with potential for either a breakout or further retracement depending on forthcoming market developments.
Given the holding company’s sector characteristics and current market environment, a careful and data-driven approach is advisable. Monitoring shifts in momentum indicators and volume patterns will be crucial to understanding future price trajectories for GFL.
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