Key Events This Week
19 Jan: Stock opens at Rs.170.90, down 1.78% amid market weakness
20 Jan: Downgrade to Sell announced; stock falls further to Rs.168.20 (-1.58%)
22 Jan: Valuation grade upgraded to attractive; stock rebounds to Rs.174.30 (+3.84%)
23 Jan: Week closes at Rs.173.65 (-0.37%) amid broader market decline
19 January 2026: Market Weakness Sets the Tone
GSFC opened the week at Rs.170.90, down 1.78% from the previous Friday’s close, reflecting a cautious market mood. The BSE Sensex also declined by 0.49% to 36,650.97, pressured by broader macroeconomic concerns. Trading volume was moderate at 27,893 shares, indicating subdued investor activity. The stock’s early weakness foreshadowed the challenges ahead as sector and company-specific news began to emerge.
20 January 2026: Downgrade to Sell Dampens Sentiment
On 20 January, MarketsMOJO downgraded GSFC from Hold to Sell, citing valuation and performance concerns. The downgrade was driven by a shift in the valuation grade from attractive to fair, with the company’s price-to-earnings ratio at 10.18, higher than some peers, and modest profitability metrics such as a return on equity of 5.36%. Despite steady operational growth, the stock’s price had declined 18.29% over the past year, underperforming the Sensex’s 8.65% gain. This negative reassessment weighed heavily on the stock, which fell 1.58% to Rs.168.20 on the day, with volume rising to 40,858 shares as investors reacted to the news. The Sensex also plunged 1.82%, closing at 35,984.65, amplifying the bearish sentiment.
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21 January 2026: Continued Pressure Amid Market Decline
The stock continued to drift lower on 21 January, closing at Rs.167.85, down 0.21%. Trading volume increased slightly to 42,838 shares, suggesting ongoing investor caution. The Sensex also declined by 0.47% to 35,815.26, reflecting persistent market weakness. GSFC’s price action remained subdued as the downgrade’s impact lingered, with the stock hovering near its weekly lows.
22 January 2026: Valuation Upgrade Spurs Recovery
On 22 January, GSFC’s valuation grade shifted from fair to attractive, signalling renewed price appeal. The company’s P/E ratio improved to 10.05, lower than many fertiliser sector peers, and its price-to-book value ratio dropped to 0.54, indicating undervaluation relative to net assets. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.64 was competitive, and the PEG ratio remained low at 0.38, suggesting growth potential not fully priced in. This positive reassessment helped the stock rebound sharply by 3.84%, closing at Rs.174.30 on volume of 28,683 shares. The Sensex also recovered, gaining 0.76% to 36,088.66, providing a supportive backdrop. Despite the improved valuation, profitability metrics such as ROE and ROCE remained modest, tempering enthusiasm.
23 January 2026: Week Ends Slightly Lower Amid Market Sell-Off
GSFC closed the week at Rs.173.65, down 0.37% on 23 January, as broader market pressures returned. The Sensex fell 1.33% to 35,609.90, weighed down by sectoral and macroeconomic concerns. Trading volume was 27,693 shares, reflecting moderate activity. The stock’s weekly performance of -0.20% was a relative outperformance compared to the Sensex’s -3.31%, underscoring GSFC’s resilience despite mixed fundamentals and a recent downgrade to Sell by MarketsMOJO, which assigned a Mojo Score of 47.0.
| Date | Stock Price | Day Change | Sensex | Day Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Rs.170.90 | -1.78% | 36,650.97 | -0.49% |
| 2026-01-20 | Rs.168.20 | -1.58% | 35,984.65 | -1.82% |
| 2026-01-21 | Rs.167.85 | -0.21% | 35,815.26 | -0.47% |
| 2026-01-22 | Rs.174.30 | +3.84% | 36,088.66 | +0.76% |
| 2026-01-23 | Rs.173.65 | -0.37% | 35,609.90 | -1.33% |
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Key Takeaways
Relative Resilience: GSFC’s stock outperformed the Sensex by a wide margin, declining only 0.20% versus the benchmark’s 3.31% fall, highlighting defensive qualities amid sector weakness.
Valuation Dynamics: The week saw a significant valuation shift from fair to attractive, driven by improved P/E and P/BV ratios relative to peers, suggesting the stock may be undervalued despite recent price softness.
Downgrade Impact: The downgrade to Sell by MarketsMOJO on 20 January reflected concerns over modest profitability, underperformance relative to the market, and limited growth levers, which weighed on sentiment and price.
Profitability Constraints: Despite operational growth, GSFC’s ROE and ROCE remain modest at 5.36% and 4.94%, respectively, limiting the stock’s appeal for investors seeking strong capital efficiency.
Sector Comparison: GSFC’s valuation is attractive but not the most compelling in the fertiliser sector, with peers like SPIC and GNFC rated very attractive, indicating competitive pressures and investor preference for stronger growth profiles.
Conclusion
Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd experienced a mixed week marked by a downgrade to Sell and a subsequent valuation upgrade that partially offset bearish sentiment. The stock’s modest 0.20% decline contrasted favourably with the broader Sensex’s 3.31% fall, reflecting relative strength amid challenging market conditions. While the improved valuation metrics suggest renewed price attractiveness, modest profitability and a cautious investment grade temper enthusiasm. Investors should monitor operational improvements and sector developments closely, as GSFC navigates a complex environment with limited growth levers but stable fundamentals.
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